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    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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Is “The Hotline” In The Tank For VA Dems?

(Originally posted December 20, 2006.) 

What are we to make of this odd little gem from the Hotline On Call?

December 17, 2006

What If Warner’s Reconsidering?

We’re not trying to start anything but with the decision by Evan Bayh to not run, there was a lot of commentary on the Sunday shows wondering if Mark Warner was having second thoughts.

And by sheer coincidence this week, one of our NH spies informed us they received a holiday card in the mail from… Mark Warner.

Could Warner get coaxed back into the race next summer once the euphoria of Obama and Hillary has worn off? He has the personal resources… Again, not trying to start anything but simply making an observation.

That’s funny. To me, it appears exactly like they ARE trying to start something. Why speculate otherwise? Why keep including all the disclaimers? This isn’t something that they typically do, either.

Could it have something to do with the Hotline’s editor Chuck Todd being married to Kristian Denny Todd, Jim Webb’s campaign spokeswoman? Others have noticed a distinct bias in The Hotline in recent months when it comes to Virginia politics as well.

Now, National Journal’s Hotline is an insider’s source that is frequented by the media and pundits for information, analysis and the evolving narrative of a story. Need further proof? Take a look here (“If it’s any good I’m sure the Hotline already has it. Kristain Todd-Denny…Chuck Todd…has VA not figured out the connection yet?” Posted by: | August 14, 2006 at 11:41 AM) and here at how “macaca” actually was turned into a racist slur picked up by the media. Funny how Kristian Denny Todd’s name keeps popping up in the publication that her husband oversees in ways to influence elections that she is involved in. This is a far cry from the objectivity that Doug Bailey brought to the Hotline on his watch.

I always thought it strange that Conn Carroll, who runs the Hotline’s Blogometer, gave so much space to Raising Kaine during the campaign on even the most minor issues while conservative Virginia blogs tended to get short shrift. (To be fair, The A-Team did receive its share of coverage in the Blogometer, but the overall coverage was nowhere near balanced between the two sides.) And did this really merit being the top story on 10/31 that no one from The A-Team had posted anything on the blog over the weekend? I think not. And what of his analysis of that?

one has to wonder if their noticeable silence says anything about the energy level of Allen supporters.

Uh, it said we have lives and jobs.  Well, now we put 2 and 2 together and see that Conn’s boss is the husband of Webb’s spokeswoman. I guess it isn’t good for one’s job to make the boss’s wife angry, right?  Oh, and when I brought Conn’s attention to the firestorm in the VA blogosphere last week over the allegations that the campaign of Sen.-elect Jim “Thinskin” Webb (D-WashPo) had supposedly done deep opposition research on some bloggers, his response was essentially, “Eh, it is too late for today.  Maybe if there is something else, we’ll do it tomorrow.”  Well, that was Thursday and on Friday, there was no Blogometer.  (Can we assume that this noticeable silence said something about the energy level of National Journal’s Blogometer staff?)  So, when it finally rolled around on Monday, there was a bit piece in it referencing the Blog P.I. story, however the most innocuous part of the Blog P.I. post was used to play it down.  (Sidenote — one prominent pollster I spoke with today said he is surprised that the Blogometer hasn’t changed its name to the Kos-ometer given how much space it gives to the Daily Kos.)  

Now today we get this lame puff piece about an eChristmas card from Mark Warner in the Hotline On Call.

It is looking more and more like The Hotline is in the tank for VA Dems, objectivity be damned.  Doug Bailey would be very, very disappointed.

4 Responses

  1. [...] Not O’Reilly in Media, National Politics. trackback Add one more “journalist” with Democrat bias to NBC [...]

  2. [...] NBC News Political Dir. Chuck Todd’s unprofessional antics on behalf of Virginia Democrats (here and here), particularly those for whom his wife worked, back when he was editor of National [...]

  3. [...] excuse me, it is his wife who is the Dem operative — he just does her bidding in the media to help her preferred candidates) to run their political coverage, I knew that NBC would sink, but I had no idea just how fast it [...]

  4. [...] Keith Olberman who should have stuck to doing sports on ESPN, and Chuck Todd who is nothing but the waterboy for his Dem consultant wife’s chosen candidates.  In fact, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to learn that Todd was involved in setting up this [...]

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