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    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864


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    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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Gilmore Hires a Heavyweight

The name Kieran Mahoney may not mean much to most Virginians, but anyone familiar with top-tier national political consultants will recognize the name and his name is spoken with reverence among New York Republicans (and with vile among New York Democrats.)  Mahoney guided Al D’Amato to reelection to the U.S. Senate from New York in ‘92 while Bill Clinton was carrying the state.  And D’Amato was running not only on the Republican ballot line, but also the Conservative Party and Right To Life Party ballot lines.  Accomplishing that feat was no easy task.

Now we see courtesy of the NY Times that Jim Gilmore has hired Mahoney as a consultant for his ‘08 presidential campaign.  This is a very smart move on Gilmore’s part.  Mahoney worked as the media consultant for the National Republican Senatorial Cmte. during the ‘02 cycle and handled the NRSC’s independent expenditure campaign in NH on behalf of now-Sen. John Sununu — something that in terms of contacts and experience no doubt will come in handy for Gilmore.

Start believing, people.  Gilmore for President is for real.

4 Responses

  1. The only place Mahoney will take Gilmore is to the bank!. As the GOP’s consultant in NY Mahoney ruined the party. Not only did he lose D”Amato (which gave us Schumer), but he lost the AG’s race and that gave us Spitzer. The NY GOP is dead, not a single statewide officeholder and no one on the horizon. We can thank Mahoney for that. Funny thing though, he keeps getting rich.

  2. In all fairness, D’Amato would have been toast in ‘92 had it not been for Mahoney and Vacco lost the AG’s race in ‘98 on his own with some of the dumb stuff he did during his term.

    Actually, if I were you, I’d blame Pataki for not building a deep bench of GOPers who could rise up. The problem with the NY GOP is the paranoia within it that if someone else starts getting some attention and credibility, there is a fear they might try to take you out. Granted, that fear might be justified (see Joe Bruno’s coup to take over the senate leadership), but on the whole it is much better to build a solid farm team for your party.

    Thank goodness I live in Virginia now instead of New York.

  3. Vacco lost in 98 because Mahoney covinced him to drop the Right to Life Party line — a line that got him elected in the first place. He lost to Spitzer by 16,000 votes; the RTL candidate got 75,000 votes when he filled for Vacco. Yes Pataki is to blame for the lack of Republican talent. But then again, guess who his political advisor was. You got it: Mahoney.

  4. Point well taken.

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