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    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864


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    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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VA Dems in Disarray; Internal Warfare Breaks Out

H/T to Ben at NLS for his coverage of the failed coup attempt among Democrats in the House of Delegates (here and here).  Democratic Central has additional details up here.  It sounds as if Brian Moran had a hand in the attempted coup, so this is obviously a blackeye for him.  (This on the heels of his ‘09 Gov. rival Creigh Deeds admitting to ethics violations in the press.)  What was Ward Armstrong thinking promising the same post to two people?  Did he really think that Amundson and Spruill wouldn’t hear about the offer made to the other?  (Oh, what fun that sort of “leadership” would be to watch from across the political aisle!)

Now, one of Virtucon’s sources tells us this:

Hall Version of Events:

Ward Armstrong attempted to gain the position of Minority Leader – and came up short. Armstrong wanted to win the post before the members left town, to make it clear he was in charge. Believing he had the votes to secure the position, Armstrong went into caucus prepared to force a leadership change. Armstrong’s “votes” did not stay with him. Discussion ensued about the wisdom of forcing such a vote – or a change – before the session ended. In addition, Armstrong apparently had a “slate” of candidates for the leadership position – a list that included Kris Amundson but not Lionell Spruill. In the end, Armstrong’s effort was thwarted. As a consolation, a committee to study the structure of leadership was set up, and will report back to the caucus at a later date. As evidence of their success, those touting the Hall spin cite the fact that Armstrong was seen visibly shaken immediately following the caucus by a reporter for the Washington Post, and remained uncharacteristically quiet during yesterday’s House session. The Minority Leader’s office expects to retain their current position through the November elections, and expect a customary leadership election after those contests.

Armstrong Version of Events:

The caucus is ready to make a change, but wanted to delay it until after Sine Die. They are dissatisfied with Hall, who they claim raises money but won’t give it up, is ineffective on the House floor, and has no real strategy for regaining the majority. An overwhelming number of the members from Northern Virginia support Armstrong, who asserts he has the votes, and had the votes to force a change going into yesterday’s caucus meeting. In order to be deferential to Hall and to avoid creating an obvious schism while the House was still in session and the Republicans still in town, they opted against forcing a vote yesterday. Armstrong instead went along with the committee to examine the structure of leadership, which he anticipates will report favorably on his critiques. By the time the caucus returns to Richmond in April for the one-day reconvened session, Armstrong expects to be the elected Minority Leader.

Our source also tells us that the WashPo’s Mike Shear was tossed out of the room, so you can imagine just how ugly things got in there.

Pass the popcorn.  This is getting good!

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