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    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864


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    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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R.I.P. “Not Larry Sabato”

The afternoon of May 31, 2007, the blog known as Not Larry Sabato passed away after suffering from a giant spasm.  The cause of death is believed to be reality crashing into delusions of grandeur.

Okay, seriously now.  The headline of “Was RPV Involved in Tate Charges?” and the attempt to implicate RPV Communications Dir. Shaun Kenney in this is just plain sad.  In doing so, Ben Tribbett admits that he will blow a source’s confidentiality in order to further his party’s political prospects.  No one should ever trust Ben Tribbett again that he will maintain their confidentiality and that my friends is the death of a blog such as his.

May 2nd- Shaun Kenney (RPV Communications Director) leaks to me that Ed Gillespie, Ken Cuccinelli, and Mike Farris all have asked Mark Tate to drop out if his indicted. He also gives me the date of May 22nd when Tate will be indicted. I put the update to this post up (no names crossed out at the time- see below for why).

May 2nd (2 hours later)- Mark Tate calls me and confirms that Ed Gillespie (RPV Chairman) has called him and asked him to drop out if he is indicted, but he knows nothing of any potential indictment other than what he has read on the internet. Tate also tells me that Ken Cuccinelli and Mike Farris did not call him.

Here’s something to consider.  It was no secret that complaints had been made against Tate and an investigation was underway.  Guess what else?  Grand juries meet only on specific days and they have expiration dates.  While I don’t know when this particular grand jury was scheduled to meet or when its expiration date is/was, it is entirely possible to determine when an indictment could be handed down based upon a grand jury’s schedule.  While everyone is running around saying there must have been a leak, it is equally if not more likely that people were able to do simple math and put the pieces of this puzzle together.  (Didn’t anybody else read The Hardy Boys or Encyclopedia Brown when they were kids?)  Not everyone has to be spoonfed all their information.  In fact, quite a few people still use something called “deductive reasoning.”  (One other possibility does exist — the target of an investigation can speak about it even though the prosecutor and grand jury are bound to silence.  Tate’s campaign manager has been quoted heavily in many of these stories.  Coincidence?)

Take note — Ben claims that Tate is asked to drop out by these individuals only if he is indicted.  They do not unconditionally ask him to drop out.

Next up –

May 3rd- A document that RPV claims has nothing to do with Mark Tate is drafted. It is “procedures if a candidate is indicted”. Details of that are in Leesburg Today article.

May 21st- Mark Tate receives a call from a friend in the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office telling him to be at the courthouse the next morning.

May 22nd- Mark Tate indicted on eleven felony counts.

Soon After- RPV claims their new policy has nothing to do with Tate and was drafted before he became an issue. However it is in a Microsoft Word Document which shows a “created” time-stamp of May 3rd.

RPV would have been STUPID if they hadn’t drafted such a document in advance of this happening.  They would also have been STUPID if they had said this was in response to the investigation into Tate and a likely indictment.  What if Tate wasn’t indicted and went on to win the nomination?  RPV did exactly the right thing here.

Week of May 23rd-May 29th- I confer with local reporters and tell them what I know and where I know it from in order to allow Mark Tate to defend himself from these anonymous attacks.

May 30th (Afternoon)- Local media contacts Shaun Kenney and he denies speaking to me since the “anti-semitic flyer” and “macaca” last year. He especially denies talking to me on May 2nd.

May 30th (Evening)- I forward emails showing he was lying about that contact.

May 31st
- Kenney’s story changed when reporter calls him back.

This is where Ben’s bubble bursts.  Point one — what anonymous attacks against Tate?  At this point, he has been indicted, it is public and everyone knew who brought the complaint.  What other “attacks” is he talking about?  Point two — did no other reporter think this was newsworthy?  That is the feedback that we’d heard from news sources that had already spurned what Ben was peddling over the past week.  Point three — of course Shaun would initially deny he had spoken with Ben.  He had provided Ben with this information as a confidential source and if he did not know that Ben had violated that confidentiality, then he would have been protecting Ben’s story by denying this contact.  Upon learning that Ben had violated that confidentiality, Shaun freely admitted to having provided him with that information.

It is clear that the only mistake that Shaun Kenney made in this entire process was trusting Ben Tribbett and treating him like a reporter.  Republican elected officials, candidates, party officials, bloggers, etc. should all keep this instance in mind when deciding if they should even deal with Ben Tribbett anymore.

8 Responses

  1. Just a little something to consider…

    The “creation date” stamped on a MS Word file means nothing. The document could have been created days, weeks, months, even years earlier in another application and pasted into Word on the date that is timestamped.

  2. Very true. But I’m at least giving Ben the benefit of the doubt here.

  3. Kenney seems to acknowledge the document was created that day, adding that RPV was working on it for longer.

  4. Exactly. I have yet to see anything here that is a big deal on the part of either Shaun or RPV. Ben, however, has betrayed a confidential source.

  5. If everything happened exactly as you describe here, then I would say that Shaun did make a mistake (other than trusting Ben), and should be chastised but not severely.

    I agree he was OK with not acknowledging speaking with Ben. What he should have done is denied illegally leaking anything to Ben, and hoping nobody picked up on the illegal bit, or simply refused to discuss any private e-mails with anybody, suggesting that private conversations should be kept private and answering once sets a precedence.

    Worse though, he didn’t just say he didn’t talk to Ben. He gave a REASON why he hadn’t talked to Ben, suggesting that his denial wasn’t just the pro-forma denial of those who can’t reveal things, but was a sincere denial.

    Next time Shaun wants to deny something, nobody’s going to believe him, and when he explains why they should, they’ll remember how well he explained THIS one.

    Shaun’s real mistake was to treat ANY blogger like a reporter. There are very few people who can be trusted on their own, and employment (or the threat of losing it) is a good incentive to a real reporter to not mess with sources (not only will sources dry up, the paper will fire them).

  6. [...] and the ability to engage in any sort of reasoned political discourse.  Yes, it is true.  The deceased blog Not Larry Sabato (get your own link), once home to political analysis, has devolved into a [...]

  7. [...] Tribbett of the deceased blog “Not Larry Sabato” has up a post entitled “Governor Kaine’s Blood Drenched [...]

  8. [...] Kids blog (or RK as he now calls it, formerly “Raising Kaine”) and Ben Tribbett of the late Not Larry Sabato blog have both surfaced in a Sunday WashTimes article on Gov. Timmy!’s [...]

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