Won:
Tricia Stall – Senate
Jill Holtzman Vogel – Senate
Maureen Caddigan – Prince William BOCS
Lori Waters – Loudoun BOCS
Pat Herrity – Fairfax BOCS
Lost:
Jon Myers – Senate
Scott Sayre – Senate
Pending Appeal:
Julie Lucas – Delegate
Now let’s take a look at how the competition across the aisle did, shall we? Over at Not Larry Sabato, predictions and endorsements were made as that blog was going into its death throws.
Looks like Ben Tribbett will have to be adjusting downward that “99.8% accurate so far” rating quite significantly. On his GOP senate predictions, he was 60% accurate. (That doesn’t even include the several outlandish posts where he claimed that Mark Tate would win or at least be in a squeaker of a contest.) In endorsements, he went 1 for 3 in the senate (McEachin being the only winner and Bell and Galligan losing.) That’s 33% there. In his House endorsements, Sullivan, Jackson and Light went down in flames while Simmons managed to escape the hex for a 25% success rate.
Tell me again why the Drive By Media goes to someone whose “#1 source of … income since 2005 is poker in Atlantic City or Las Vegas“ for commentary and analysis on political matters when reality doesn’t live up to the “99.8% accurate so far” hype?
Filed under: 2007 Elections, Blogging, Endorsements
Everyone knows NLS will NEVER lower his accuracy percentage. I would love to see if someone would go through all of his predictions and calcualte the number of correct versus incorrect picks and determine what his real percentage is.
I’d just like to see some evidence that he makes money playing pro-poker. I bet he works as a 7-Eleven clerk.
What a maroon.
Ben’s major problem is that he has let his partisanship and ego get the better of him. Two years ago he came on anonymously and was able to evaluate the trends and campaigns in a somewhat reasonable, informed and informative way. Now he lets himself be blinded by his own partisan feelings and he tries to dictate the tone more than feel it out. He overestimates his own clout and clouds his own judgment.
The shark was jumped long ago and finally caught up with him. Now it’s dinner time.
I think it would be great if Virginia Virtucon became the new place to check for Republican election predications that is objective. Why we go to NLS for Republican predications is beyond me.
For all the venom that NLS had to say about VCAP and us being a paper tiger, (even crazily getting behind the Tate conspiracy theory) he ate his words last night on his podcast saying something to the effect of: “I had predicted that VCAP would be a paper tiger after tonight, but they have surprised me at how well they have done.”
Well, we’d welcome the opportunity to become that, Jamie.
Question: How much money did VCAP give to Smith and Stall? I know they gave BIG to Blackburn, Sayre and Vogel, but I thought little or zero to Smith and Stall.
Just asking.
Found my own answer at NLS in a post, don’t know who wrote it, but it seems right as far as I can tell:
“Here is the irony that Robin DeJarnette has to explain to Jerry Parker tomorrow. How is it that in the two Senate races where VCAP endorsed a candidate, the incumbent won and in 2 of the 3 that the did not endorse (if you include Quayle), the incumbent lost. Plus Van Hoy going down.
So let’s look at the VCAP record:
VCAP endorses Blackburn against Stosch. Stosch wins.
VCAP endorses Sayre against Hanger. Hanger wins
VCAP endorses Van Hoy against Myers, Stuart and Graziano. Stuart wins.
VCAP endorses Vogel over the indicted Tate. OK, they manage to pull out that “big” upset.
VCAP does NOT endorse Stall over Williams. Stall wins.
VCAP does NOT endorse Smith over Bell. Smith wins.”