1st Congressional: Shakedown, Breakdown, Takedown (Part 1)

Much appreciate the introduction-

Well, I was going to be Capt. Obvious, but unfortunately some smart, good looking, sarcastic, individual beat me to it. Thus, I figured I’d give myself a promotion and change my last name- thus, Major T. J. ‘King’ Kong, shortened to Major Kong. Made famous by the 1964 movie classic,  Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying, and Love the Bomb.

I wanted to get things off on the right foot with all the great folks here at VV, so I figured I’d couple my first blog with a little 80’s music.  Who better, than Bob Seger and his 1987 single “Shakedown”?  (Friday Night Video Fights, anyone?) As Seger so masterfully said twenty years ago, ‘breakdown, shakedown, takedown- everyone wants into the crowded light’.

Right now in VA, that lyric can be exemplified by the laundry list of ‘potential’ candidates jockeying behind the scenes for a position, to what appears to be a lightning quick Special Election. To name a few: Delegates Gear, Frederick, Lingamfelter, Hamilton and Whitman, along with former Delegate Melanie Rapp; State Senator Ryan McDougle, Lt. Gov. Bill Bollling; Former 1st Congressional Chairman Russ Moulton and current Chairman James Bowden; Stafford County Commissioner of the Revenue Scott Mayausky; Former 1st Congressional District Candidate, and current Virginia Club for Growth President, Paul Jost; VV’s own Jim Riley, an attorney and GOP activist/1st Congressional Committee member; Kevin O’Neil, a lobbyist; and finally (and most likely) Chuck Davis, widower of the late Congresswoman Davis.

As stated, it initially appears to look like events are going to begin to unfold fairly fast. Governor Kaine has stated that he would like to see a Special Election before, ’the end of the year’.  Assuming the Special Election won’t coincide with the upcoming Nov. 6th elections, and by statute thus, not taking place until 30 days after the November elections, the calendar could look something like this: (working backwards):

• Special Election Tuesday December 18th. Now I’m not sure if the Special Election has to take place on a Tuesday, but if it does, then the latest it could take place, is on December 18th, as Christmas falls on Tuesday the 25th.
• Nomination Contest (likely Convention) Saturday December 1st. Why convention? There will not be a statewide primary, for a plethora or reasons. Thus nominations will either be determined by party canvass or by convention. The first congressional (for both R’s and D’s) may be the weakest congressional district in the state from an organizational standpoint. There is no district ’seat’, because there isn’t an area of dense population. Thus the local committees and their respective memberships are small, some so small they meet only quarterly. A full-blown party canvass requires volunteers, and lots of them. Volunteers that neither party could produce, unless a large influx of out-of-the-district vols come to their aid- which isn’t likely, not that time of year.  Therefore a convention seems, by far, the easiest route- for both parties. (Bonus: The bonus for Gov. Tim Kaine is that by setting the convention for this weekend, he’ll place a huge damper on the State GOP’s Annual Huffman Advance. Attendance would surely be down, and not by simply 1/11. Party leaders, state elected officials, election attorneys and the rest of the circus would all be unable to attend their yearly merrymaking.

With the candidates and calendar now, at least potentially, set- I’ll explore in Part 2 (the ‘breakdown’) all the possible scenarios, maneuvering, and deal making, including what seems to be the two most likely directions the GOP nomination might swing. While someone will surely be positioned for victory, others may be in the midst of being propped up for future (08’) failure.

I’ll also leave open the possibility of tapping out a ‘Part 3′, (the ‘takedown’) that will identify the potential Democratic candidates in this race. A much smaller list of names has been floating around the District and DC, and although the 1st Congressional is a solid GOP District- somewhere around 55/45, there could be a real opportunity there for a well-qualified, connected, democratic candidate to pick that seat off. I know many of you, maybe all of you, would disagree, but I think the argument can be made given; the Governor’s authority to set the calendar, the short cycle, and the dismal turnout that is to be expected.  There is, at least, a remote possibility. I may even convince you that the possibility of that happening, is actually pretty strong.