Debunking “Funny Math” Meant To Sink Anti-Illegal Alien Resolution

Trent Barton has done excellent work researching budget numbers to debunk the “funny math” that some opponents of PWC’s anti-illegal alien resolution have been using to scare people into thinking this will cost too much to institute.  Couple this with the results of last week’s budget retreat where county staff indicated that there were unallocated funds that could be used to plug the hole left by Gov. Timmy!’s slashing of funds for local police and there is no reason for any supervisor to oppose funding the resolution that they previously voted for.  This “funny math” is nothing more than a fig leaf for some people who are trying to have it both ways — I voted for the resolution before I voted against it…

From: Trent A. Barton
Sent: Sunday, October 14, 2007 10:48 PM
To: ‘Mike May’; ‘Maureen Caddigan’; ‘John Jenkins’; ‘Martin Nohe’; ‘Hilda Barg’; ‘Wally Covington’; ‘John Stirrup’; ‘Corey Stewart’
Cc: CGerhart@pwcgov.org; CMartino@pwcgov.org
Subject: Illegal Immigration Vote– Cost of the Resolution
Importance: High

Dear Mr. Chairman and Supervisors-

First, I believe all you know of my support for the resolution that is under consideration before you so I won’t outline my reasoning behind my support of the resolution. I firmly encourage each of you to vote in the affirmative as our community is speaking with a united voice that something has to be done to curb illegal immigration and its negative effects on our lives. It is important that each of you take your responsibility very seriously and to vote for our community not get distracted by the misinformation being promoted by the apologist that mostly don’t live in our community. Second, many of you know my past budget experience and I have been working for a couple of weeks now compiling budget numbers and checking my sources. I have met with experts in law enforcement, jail operators, social services providers, realtors, zoning experts, and even a librarian.

While I could give you a multi-page presentation, we don’t have enough time before your vote on Tuesday. Briefly, I want to share a few items that might assist you as you finalize your vote on Tuesday. We have all heard a lot numbers ranging as little as $2.6 million per year to over $400 million total as the cost of resolution implementation. Regrettably, there are a few opponents to the resolution are promoting a number that is so far out of the data range available that in my opinion it borders on misinformation or sadly they have been grossly misled and don’t have the ability to decipher the numbers appropriately. To reach their irresponsible numbers being put out by the detractors of the resolution you have to combine the forecasted lower revenue receipts and the estimated cost of the resolution together to reach the $.015 cents on the tax rate. The estimated downtrend in the assessments (main revenue stream for Prince William County) most likely will result in a 23% decrease (weighted) in revenue according to PWC Finance Department forecast (Feb 2007). That will take about $.011 cents increase on the tax rate to have neutral revenue to FY 2008 revenues. It is not academically honest to add that downturn to the cost of the resolution. When you boil away the downtrend revenue, the true honest cost of this resolution is maximum $.02 or $.03 cents (weighted) on the tax rate ($10.2 million) which I believe is an extremely liberal/generous amount. It puts the static cost of $3.86 million (staff and equipment) and $6.34 million being the capital cost ($210 million facility)*. As you will see with my numbers I gave large latitude in my calculations to even construct an illegal immigrate detention facility if needed. Since no facility is currently being proposed by the resolution implementation it should not be included in your cost calculations. However, if a facility is to be built to handle the influx of detainees then we can plan for it similarly like long term financing of facilities similarly like schools, libraries and county office facilities. Therefore the cost of implementation of this resolution for your consideration is maximum $3.86 million. This amount will allow for at least 7 police officers to be trained, additional equipment, additional staff member at county agencies to implement the resolution, printing of educational materials, and public relations costs.

Each of you has my family and thousands others at risk if you don’t do something or vote against enforcing the rule of law. We have already been betrayed by our elected Federal and State Officials when they failed to pass meaningful legislation to protect our homeland. Prince William County citizens can not afford for you to vote against this resolution. Please vote for this resolution and work towards implementation of it as fast as possible.

Thank you for your time and your support of our community—I look forward to your affirmative vote on Tuesday. The community will be watching and looking forward to your leading and not falling for “funny math” scare tactics. Feel free to contact me if you have any questions or concerns.

Sincerely-
Trent A. Barton

*Assumes that a full detention center is built to handle additional detainees due to the jail complex housing inmates being full or not available amortized 45 years (average detention center span of operation).