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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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Part 2- The ‘Breakdown’

The second part of this post, the ‘breakdown’, is a list of all the possible candidates that are now or in the future going to vie for this open Congressional seat. It is a rather large list.  I can think of really no ‘short’ way of doing it, so I’m just going to list them, in alphabetical order, by region, with little biographical information. Surely, this list will grow longer, then shorter, then longer again, in its run up to the convention.

 Prince William

Del. Jeff Frederick- Member since 2004. Opposed this cycle. Del. Scott Lingamfelter- Member since 2002. Long-time service member in the US Army; Ret. Colonel.  Opposed (by a nut-bag) this cycle. Jim Riley- 1st Congressional District member, GOP Activist, Attorney. 

Fredericksburg 

David Caprara- Worked in then Gov. George Allens administration, as well as both current and former Bush administrations.  Scott Mayausky- current Commissioner of the Revenue for Stafford County, currently running unopposed for his second term.  Russ Moulton- Former 1st Congressional District Chairman. Businessman.

 Northern Neck

Chuck Davis- Widower of Congresswoman Davis; Battalion commander for Fire Dept. Sen. Ryan McDougle- Member since 2006. Former member VA House of Delegates. Attorney. Not opposed this cycle. Del. Robb Whitman- Member since 2006. Frmr Supervisor for Westmoreland Co, and Councilman/Mayor of the town of Montross. Not opposed this cycle. 

Tidewater

Teresa Altemus- Member of Gloucester Board of Supervisors since 1993, Current President of Virginia Association of Counties. James Bowden – Current (for all of one month) 1st Congressional GOP Chair. Del. Tom Gear- Member since 2002. Ex-Hampton City Councilman, Businessman and Nat’l Guard Veteran. Not opposed this cycle. Del. Phillip Hamilton- Member since 1988. Not opposed this cycle. Catesby Jones- Business Entrepreneur, Founder of “Peace-Frogs” Paul Jost- Businessman, President of VA Club for Growth, narrowly lost to Congresswoman Davis in previous Special Election. Melanie Rapp- Former House of Delegate member, was elected to same seat once held by Congresswoman JoAnn Davis during her own tenure in the VA HoD. Not up for re-election, retired this year.

16 Total- as it stands now. Heck- I’m sure in the time it took me to tap out this post- another has entered their name to the hat. If I left anyone out- my apologies- please be sure and let me know in the comments section-

7 Responses

  1. Sounds to me like (former va delegate) Col. Richard Black should be added to the list in the Fredericksburg section too. I think everyone should take a look at his record and qualifications. I don’t think he’s announced yet, but there’s a lot of buzz about him.

    ** HELP OUT Corey Stewart and show up tues Oct 16 at the PWC Supervisors’ meeting to support his fight against ILLEGAL immigrants. The liberals are tearing him a new hole— YOUR TOWN IS NEXT. Draw a line here!

  2. I make a different geo distinction of Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and The Peninsula. All three are part of Tidewater. Plus the First District has a bit of Hunt Country (the Piedmont).

  3. i thought black was from loudon…

  4. Black is from Loudoun.

  5. Black “was” from Loudoun… he lives in Fredericksburg now. He’s been to many 1st District fund raisers and supported candidates both financially and with guidance for nearly a decade- but in the past 3-6 months has been helping out several campaigns in Stafford, Spotsy, Louisa and some points south since he was moving to the area I guess. My committee friend spotted him in Norfolk/Hampton area a few weeks back stumping for someone down there too.

    Seems like a good match for the position to me unless someone more qualified steps up soon. Then again, I haven’t heard that he announced any intentions to run, so it may just be rumor since he’s avaialble and still so active in other people’s races.

  6. Jeff Frederick lives well-inside the 11th district, though his HoD district overlaps with the 1st district. I’m sure he’s flattered by the attention (deservedly so, in that he is still a relative newcomer to elective office), but unless he changes residences very quickly, I think his name needs to be dropped.

    I’m not sure about this, but I think it’s also possible that Lingamfelter lives outside the 1st district (I believe he lives in the 10th).

  7. GoCorey:

    Are you sure that Dick Black is living in Fredericksburg now? Commenters on TooConservative are responding that Dick is still in his old house in Loudoun. Do you know whereabouts in Fredericksburg he’s living? Is in Fredericksburg proper or in one of the surrounding counties?

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