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    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864


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    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



  • Special Election – Jan 12, 2010

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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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December 11th for the 1st Congressional District

The Governor has set December 11th as Special Election Day to fill the 1st Congressional District vacated by the death of Representative JoAnn Davis.

Governor Kaine Sets Dec. 11 Special Election Date In Virginia’s First Congressional District
– Voters will use paper ballots –

RICHMOND – Governor Timothy M. Kaine today set Tuesday, December 11, 2007, as the date for voters in the First Congressional District to participate in a special election to select a successor to serve the unexpired term of the late U.S. Rep. Jo Ann Davis.

“Because of the critical issues facing our nation and the need for continued and uninterrupted constituent services, it is important that the residents of the First District have representation in Congress soon,” Governor Kaine said. “We have worked in a responsible and bipartisan way with the Office of the Attorney General, the State Board of Elections, local registrars and the leaders of both major political parties to ensure that this special election can be conducted as quickly as state and federal election laws allow.”

Because of the unavailability of voting machines immediately after the November general election, and the need to prepare machines and train poll workers prior to the presidential primaries to be held in February 2008, voters will cast paper ballots in the December 11th special election.

The First Congressional District has 448,000 registered voters who cast their ballots at 194 voting precincts. The District includes all or a portion of 18 counties – Caroline, Essex, Fauquier, Gloucester, James City, King & Queen, King George, King William, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Northumberland, Prince William, Richmond, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Westmoreland and York. It also includes all or a portion of five cities – Fredericksburg, Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson and Williamsburg.

# # #

And with the date set here is a current list of candidates and potential cadidates vying for the seat.

Republican Candidates Location
Chuck Davis Gloucester
Paul Jost Williamsburg
David Caprara Spotsylvania
Rob Wittman Northern Neck
James Bowden Tidewater
Dick Black Fredericksburg
Catesby Jones Gloucester
Teresa Altemus Gloucester
Scott Lingamfelter PWC
Jeff Frederick PWC
Jim Riley PWC
Russ Moulton Fredericksburg
Tom Gear Tidewater
Phillip Hamilton Tidewater
Sherwood Bowditch Gloucester
Dale Sisson King George
Kevin O’Neill Williamsburg
Melanie Rapp Tidewater
Ryan McDougle Northern Neck
Scott Mayausky Stafford
Bill Bolling Richmond

Democrat Candidates Location
Anthony Zinni Williamsburg
Hap Conners Spotsylvania
Hugh Montgomery Spotsylvania
Phil Forgit Tidewater

Bold=Announced Candidate

9 Responses

  1. Paul Jost has announced.

    And why are some of the Republican candidates in blue?

  2. Of course choosing December 11th was Gov. Kaine’s way of wishing Ben Tribbett a happy birthday.

  3. [...] Riley is reporting that Governor Kaine has called for a Special Election for the First Congressional District to be held on December 11th, which virtually guarantees that this race is going to be all about money.  With little time between the November elections and a convention to select the Republican nominee, the already crowded field of candidates is going to have a hard time putting together campaign teams that are going to be able to sign up a lot of convention delegates unless they can open the cash spigot and hire a bunch of field people.  Once the nomination is made, money is going to play a big role in determining who is going to be able to get their message out there and connect with voters. [...]

  4. [...] Thus Governor Kaine has decided to hold a special election on December 11, 2007 to fill this seat (here). As a result, we already have candidates out campaigning for the seat, and two distinguished [...]

  5. Hap Connors is definately not in this race. I spoke with him personally and asked. He is running for supervisor now and has no interest in this position personally. He asked that I post a messages to remove his name from the list. Feel free to call and verify. Thank you.

  6. For Immediate Release
    Contact: Sherwood Bowditch
    October 19, 2007
    804-370-2514

    Sherwood Bowditch to Seek Republican
    Nomination in First Congressional District

    Gloucester, VA
    Sherwood Hornsby Bowditch of Gloucester, Virginia, will be seeking the Republican Nomination in the First Congressional District. Bowditch is currently the Executive Director of the Virginia Alliance of Boys & Girls Clubs. Previous to this he was a commercial insurance agent for Morgan Marrow Insurance in Hampton Virginia for six years.

    Bowditch has deep Peninsula roots and has been a leader in both civic activities and Republican politics. He was the past President of the Gloucester Boys & Girls Club and serves as a member of the Boys & Girls Club of the Virginia Peninsula Board. In 2004 he led a successful capital campaign to raise $500,000 to open a Boys & Girls Club in Gloucester. It is now one of the largest in the nation.

    Bowditch was Chairman of the Gloucester Republican Committee from 2002-2004. He was a delegate to the 2004 Republican National Convention and has volunteered for Republican Candidates for many years.

    “Jo Ann Davis was a fine leader and it is difficult to envision the future without her, but this is what we must do,” said Bowditch. “Congress needs leadership, energy and a fresh approach to big problems more than ever. I know I bring all those qualities to the table.”

    “Like many of you, I have friends who are serving or have served in Iraq and Afghanistan,” added Bowditch. “I will make representing the interest of our servicemen and women as well as the vast defense industry in the First District a primary focus of my time in Congress.”

    Bowditch has a double major in Political Science and Economics from Hampden-Sydney College and a Masters in Business Administration from the University of Richmond

    ##

  7. Black Velvet Bruce Lee is ’spot-on’. Money is ruling instead of qualifications, and experience.
    Dick Black has 8 years in the VA legislature, a combat vet in Viet Nam, chief of criminal law for the US Army, a proven conservative track record that can be verified, and a fighter for the common man. No one else running has any legislative experience, or a track record.

  8. And he has two things NOT going for him — he lost his last election and he has never lived in nor represented any part of this district. Those are two pretty big strikes in my book.

  9. It was sad to see what happened last Saturday in Milford… There was obviously a deal struck between Whittman & Bowditch prior to the convention. Although I’m sure Mr Bowditch fully expected it to go in his favor. Mr Bowditch had more Democrats & Independents at the convention supporting him then he did Republicans. Mr Jost was clearly the best man for the job and a true Republican.
    Virginia Republicans, we’re in trouble………………………….

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