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    "That some should be rich, shows that others may become rich, and, hence, is just encouragement to industry and enterprise."

    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864


    "The supply-side claim is not a claim. It is empirically true and historically convincing that with lower rates of taxation on labor and capital, the factors of production, you'll get a bigger economy."

    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



  • Special Election – Jan 12, 2010

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    In a fight between Jim Webb and Ollie North, who would win? Oh, that's right, we already know the answer to that question.



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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New Senate Campaign Finance Reports

Here is a quick rundown on the hot races for Virginia Senate and where the candidates are with their fundraising, disbursements and cash on hand totals for the period 10/1 – 10/24:

1st Dist.
Tricia Stall
Raised – $419060.59
Spent – $394017.32
Cash On Hand – $85560.04
John Miller
Raised – $513933.73
Spent – $434349.49
Cash On Hand – $300631.28

6th Dist.
Nick Rerras
Raised – $103879.33
Spent – $197578
Cash On Hand – $77462.71
Ralph Northam
Raised – $298906.31
Spent – $431021.23
Cash On Hand – $204098.45

13th Dist.
Fred Quayle
Raised – $39563.26
Spent – $62341.74
Cash On Hand – $117453.31
Stephen Heretick
Raised – $9027.52
Spent – $26725.62
Cash On Hand – $57299.98

17th Dist.
Chris Yakabouski
Raised – Unavailable
Spent – Unavailable
Cash On Hand – Unavailable
Edd Houck
Raised – $51955.72
Spent – $140006.16
Cash On Hand – $152393.61

20th Dist.
Jeff Evans
Raised – $7875
Spent – $6126.86
Cash On Hand – $25277.38
Roscoe Reynolds
Raised – $154738.79
Spent – $241377.49
Cash On Hand – $74902.86

22nd Dist.
Ralph Smith
Raised – $60960
Spent – $90405.71
Cash On Hand – $69067.76
Michael Breiner
Raised – $360953.43
Spent – $391867.75
Cash On Hand – $145420.07

27th Dist.
Jill Holtzman-Vogel
Raised – $247721.82
Spent – $433773.96
Cash On Hand – $252931.52
Karen Schultz
Raised – $321743.12
Spent – $480876.72
Cash On Hand – $98707.28

28th Dist.
Richard Stuart
Raised – $364833.01
Spent – $324111.2
Cash On Hand – $82412.25
Albert “Trashman” Pollard
Raised – $305579.75
Spent – $330079.48
Cash On Hand – $124940.39

29th Dist.
Bob FitzSimmonds
Raised – $194073.14
Spent – $119290.26
Cash On Hand – $137886.83
Chuck Colgan
Raised – $153936.65
Spent – $151349.25
Cash On Hand – $118682.51

33rd Dist.
Patricia Phillips
Raised – $15442.62
Spent – $38608.84
Cash On Hand – $-341.15
Mark Herring
Raised – $145490.92
Spent – $317410.93
Cash On Hand – $91252.4

34th Dist.
Jeannemarie Devolites Davis
Raised – $489441.64
Spent – $793872.58
Cash On Hand – $81893.28
Chap Peterson $215,353
Raised – $416834.38
Spent – $299493.88
Cash On Hand – $429127.22

37th Dist.
Ken Cuccinelli
Raised – $264320.59
Spent – $385020.91
Cash On Hand – $173143.61
Janet Oleszek
Raised – $336040.63
Spent – $365904.68
Cash On Hand – $76856.21

39th Dist.
Jay O’Brien
Raised – $215618.08
Spent – $159890.67
Cash On Hand – $147420.5
George Barker
Raised – $235628.23
Spent – $239499.78
Cash On Hand – $168847.56

Back in September, we looked at some Republican senators who are either retiring or unopposed this November and their cash on hand totals and urged them to spread the wealth to help their GOP bretheren. The first number is the one from the Sept. post, the second is the current total as of 10/24:

John Chichester $302,048 (retiring) / $284032.19
Tommy Norment $296,665 (unopposed) / $214319.98
William Wampler $315,316 (unopposed) / $140454.15
Walter Stosch $198,921 (unopposed) / $109691.04
John Watkins $194,044 (unopposed) / $144827.17
Ken Stolle $147,805 (unopposed) / $35581.8
Frank Wagner $106,694 (unopposed) / $64343.82

Yes, that big spender John Chi-ching-e$ter donated $2,300 this past month — a whole $300 to the Stafford Co. GOP, and $1,000 each to the Danny Marshall for Delegate and Morrogh for Commonwealths Attorney campaigns. The real story comes from Sept. Sure, old Johnny Boy gave $3,000 to Richard Stuart who is running to succeed him in the senate. But he also gave $3K to DEMOCRAT Edd Houck and $1K to DEMOCRAT Chuck Colgan. Meanwhile, he could only spare $500 for Jeannemarie Devolites Davis. I’m surprised he didn’t just give a big wad of cash to Albert “The Trashman” Pollard. Maybe he’s waiting for these last few days before Election Day to do that so it doesn’t show up on campaign finance reports until afterwards.

Tommy Norment did give $2,500 to Tricia Stall and a lot to several local candidates as well as approx. $60K to the Senate Republican Leadership Trust. (Interestingly enough, Norment’s campaign reported a $900 contribution on 10/17 to Chuck Davis for Congress –yes, that is illegal under Federal election law, so hopefully the Chuck Davis campaign caught this and returned the check.) William Wampler did an excellent job spreading cash around to several county Republican cmtes. and candidates in addition to almost $50K to the SRLT. Stosch gave $100K to the SRLT and a whole $1000 to Richard Stuart. Watkins gave $65K to the SRLT. Stolle added another $35K to the SRLT bottom line and was the most generous of the lot to Stuart, giving him $12,500 in Oct. Wagner gave $56K to the SRLT.

So, with all that cash in the SRLT’s hands now, we can only hope that it is being spent wisely to retain the GOP majority. Given that the SRLT did not have to file a preelection report, we won’t know until after Election Day how they spent it. Before 9/30, we do note that they gave $13510.35 to Jeff Evans back in July and another $40000 in Sept., $59000 and $108000 to Stuart in Aug. and another $61000 in Sept., $40000 to RPV in Aug. and another $165000 in Sept., $50000 to Rerras in Aug., $75000 to Jay O’Brien in Sept., and $27149.68 to Yakabouski in Sept. (yes, the opponent of Chi-ching-e$ter’$ buddy Houck.)

Conservatives have upheld their part of the post-primary bargain by supporting the party’s nominees and being team players.  I am glad to see the SRLT making the contributions that they have so far and hope that the numbers for October only increase over that. Given that FitzSimmonds latest campaign report shows that he received $35K from them, I am confident that will be the case.

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