It can also get much, much, much worse

I don’t want to sound a sour note amidst the hope/optimism that I am seeing in posts and comments below, but I do not take a lot of comfort from last night’s results. I do not disagree that it could have been much, much, worse, nor do I disagree with the notion that the Democrats, through a combination of sheer stupidity and craveness tossed away an opportunity for a really big night.  However, having already witnessed the implosion of a once reasonably competent and strong GOP in New York State, I know what an impending disaster looks like and unfortunately, I am seeing some similarities between today’s VA GOP and the NY GOP of seven or eight years ago. This obviously scares the hell out of me.

Here is what troubles me. New York, politically, used to be two states–New York City and the rest of the state. The City was obviously extremely  left wing–always has been and sadly always will be. The City essentially had to be on the verge of a violent collapse in order for a socially liberal Republican, Rudy Giuliani, to eke out a narrow victory in 1993. All future ”Republican” Mayors elected in NYC will follow the Michael Bloomberg model of being Liberal Democrats with a modicum of common sense who switch labels for the purpose of sidestepping the corrupt unions, race pimps, charlatans and bag men who dominate the Democrat primary process. 

Acknowledging all of that, it must be noted that up until 2000 or thereabouts, Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk Counties formed a very solid Republican bulkwark that guarded what was a largely Red State outside of the City (minus a couple of small pockets in inner-city Buffalo and Albany). Demographics began shifting in the early 70s, as Westchester, Nassau and Suffolk were invaded by large hordes of radical left wing refugees from NYC. The GOP held it together in these border counties through the 70s, 80s and 90s because they had some very savvy and charismatic political leaders–guys like Nelson Rockefeller, Malcom Wilson, Jim O’Rourke, Andy O’Rourke, Dominic DiCarlo, John Flynn and Al D’Amato (who may or may not have been a sleazebag, but was undeniably a very shrewd political operator who ran a first rate political organization). They knew how to raise boatloads of cash and they were able to attract strong candidates to run at the local level. 

Things started to slip when George Pataki came to power in 1994 and dominated the potical landscape. As an initial matter, during his first term when he actually governed like a conservative, this was not a bad thing and the GOP made some gains in the Assembly and built a seemingly insurmountable majority in the State Senate. The problems began in earnest during Pataki’s second term when he turned left and simultaneoulsy sucked the oxygen out of the GOP room by failing to expend resources developing talent at the lower levels of the party or assisting anyone in climbing the ladder to statewide prominence. By the time Pataki mercifully slithered off into retirement after a lackluster third term, the state GOP had no new faces who were exciting and recognizable across the state. The result was a complete implosion in 2006–and a situation whereby the only thing that separates New York from being Massachusetts or Vermont, are a few beseiged congressmen and a razor thin State Senate Majority that will be dead and gone by 2008 (or 2010 at the latest)–unless of course Elliot Spitzer is actually stupid enough to ram his plan for handing out driver’s licenses to illegal aliens into law.

With that somewhat interminable introduction, let’s look at my relatively new home and yours, the Commonwealth of Virginia. Here in Virginia, we’ve already seen a demographic shift caused by the invasion of left wing hordes from the Northeast and the monument-infested, slightly larger, carbon copy of Camden that is also called the District of Columbia. This invasion has obviously had dire consequences as Arlington and Alexandria have achieved the almost impossible feat of becoming more insanely liberal and Fairfax is now practically indistiguinshable, politically, from suburban New Jersey.  And as one who lives amongst these idiot hordes, I can tell you there is no reasoning with them. The GOP and God Almight Himself  cannot conquer the invincible ignorance of the Northeastern liberal. You don’t know how many times I have asked a neighbor here in Arlington ”So Bill and Hillary, you moved out of DC/NY/Boston because the taxes were too high, the cost of living was through the roof, and everything was going to hell in a handbasket, but you want to vote for the exact same kind of person who created that situation in DC/NY/Boston?” They usually respond reflexively–sort of like Pavlov’s dogs only with less intelligence and poorer hygene–with a Nation/New Republic-inspired screed I like to simply refer to as ”I hate Bushitler!” or, when they are too drunk on Chardonnay to fully remember the latest Paul Krugman/Keith Olbermann talking points, an oldie but goody rant about guns, gays or abortion.

Moreover, as if this demographic shift wasn’t problematic enough, I also don’t see much to get excited about at the top of the GOP here in the Commonwealth. With all due respect for someone I am told is a fine man, Jim Gilmore excites me less than cold oatmeal. The only reason I can conceivably seeing myself working very hard for him is the fact that I absolutely despise Marky Mark with every fiber of my being. Having gotten up close and personal with him on a couple of occasions, I feel comfortable reporting that he is completely without scruples and is the one guy who could give Billy Jeff Clinton and Teddy Kennedy a run for their money in The Scumbag Derby.

I don’t like Jim Webb–as anyone who has suffered through my previous pearls of wisdom can attest–the man clearly suffers from a serious form of mental illness. With that said, I don’t fear him–he has all the charisma of Mike Dukakis coupled with the intellect of Patrick Kennedy (and if you are ever in the need of comedic gold, stop by the Hawk & Dove some Thursday night and dare Pat Kennedy to offer a policy position on anything more complicated then the virtues of nachos versus chicken wings). The only reason Jim Webb is currently befouling the United States Senate is that George Allen ran as bad a campaign as I have ever witnessed, in the middle of a political tsunami–and even then, Webb’s victory was a closely run thing. I have little doubt that we will be able to pick him off in 2012–assuming he even wants to run for re-election-even if we run a completely milquetoast candidate.

Mark Warner, in contrast, while a total sleazebag, is no dummy by any stretch of the imagination. One need only look at the legislatively-sanctioned ponzi scheme he devised to build his fortune at the expense of taxpayers to understand that fact. If he gets into the Senate, the only way he is leaving is by his own choice or in a pine box. And he is shrewd enough that he will use that Senate seat to raise boatloads of cash which will only serve to make life more difficult for the GOP.

As for McDonnell and Bolling, they seem like decent guys, but again, they don’t do much to get the blood pumping and I’d be less than confident with either of them going into Governor’s race. In my view, we need some exciting talent at the top of ticket for both the senate and gubernatorial races. Allen sort of fits the bill for the gubernatorial election, but I worry he has been irreparably damaged as a viable candidate by the 06 election. I am praying that Ed Gillespie will come back at the state level when the Bush Administration mercifully limps off the field and that we can convice someone like Peter Pace or Ted Olsen to get involved. It may well be that both of them might be overhyped (a la Fred Thompson) or poor campaigners, but I’d rather try to catch lightning in a bottle then run known commodities who put people to sleep.

Anyway, I apologize for peeing on the parade. As a New York-bred, conservative Republican who now lives in North Arlington, I am afraid that it is my destiny to fight the good fight for lost causes. Please have at my commentary–tear it to bits, question my intelligence or sanity, or sound notes of righteous indignation at my defeatism. Watching yesterday’s results coupled with discovering that an utter defeatist moonbat like Ron Paul actually has some tangible support (by virtue of the Guy Fawkes telethon) has got me fearing that some rough beast, its hour come round at last, is slouching towards Bethelem to be born. Or maybe I just caught sight of Joe Stanley pulling out of a Taco Bell Drive Thru. In any event, I would like to further apologize for egregiously paraphrasing William ButlerYeats–the Good Fathers at Boston College would be gravely disappointed. It is probably time for me to go have a cocktail (or ten).