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    "That some should be rich, shows that others may become rich, and, hence, is just encouragement to industry and enterprise."

    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864


    "The supply-side claim is not a claim. It is empirically true and historically convincing that with lower rates of taxation on labor and capital, the factors of production, you'll get a bigger economy."

    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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WashPo vs. WashTimes on Economic Impact of Illegal Aliens

One study report, two very different spins…

The WashTimes headline “Immigrants, illegals use welfare more often

The WashPo headline “Illegal Immigrants in Md. and Va. Out-Earn U.S. Peers, Study Says

HUH?

First, from the WashTimes:

Both immigrants and illegal aliens are more likely to be poor and to use welfare programs than native-born Americans because they come to the country with lower levels of education, according to a new study looking at U.S. Census Bureau data.

“The problem here is not work, or a lack of willingness to work; it’s not legal status; it’s educational level at arrival,” said Steven A. Camarota, research director for the Center for Immigration Studies, which is releasing the report today.

. . .

He said that makes sense — native-born Americans without a high-school education also are more likely to use welfare or to live in poverty. But he said that means that the burdens illegal aliens places on taxpayers can’t be solved through amnesty because it would not raise education levels.

So, what’s the bottom line?

According to the CIS study, among illegal aliens living in Virginia, 43 percent are in or near poverty and 57 percent are without health insurance. Sure that is better than California where 58 percent are in or near poverty and 65 percent of them do not have health insurance. Virginia is also better than New York where 50 percent are in or near poverty and 67 percent are without health insurance.

Now, on to the WashPo:

The average household income for illegal immigrants is $45,748 nationally. In Maryland, it’s $58,061; in Virginia, $61,112. The findings may reflect the greater overall wealth of the two states: The average household income for native residents is $83,964 in Maryland and $79,524 in Virginia, compared with $66,952 nationwide.

There is a catch when looking at the average illegal alien household income of $61,112 in Virginia as compared to the average native born household income of $79,524 for Virginians — illegal alien households are at least 40 percent larger than native households according to the study. Furthermore, the Virginia numbers may very well include two very different types of illegal aliens –

But Steven A. Camarota, who wrote the report for the Washington-based center, which advocates limits on immigration, said it also suggests that a greater share of illegal immigrants in the Washington region are people who overstayed their entry visas rather than sneaked across the border.

“People who overstay are more likely to be foreign students and guest workers who are more educated. People who cross the border illegally tend to be the least educated,” he said.

According to the CIS report itself, Virginia has an estimated 259,000 illegal aliens residing here. That is 30 percent of all immigrants living in Virginia and 3 percent of the Commonwealth’s overall population. Likewise, it is estimated that 3 percent of students age 5-17 in Virginia are illegal aliens accounting for 36,000 class seats. Another 2 percent of Virginia students age 5-17 are U.S.-born children of illegal aliens accounting for an additional 23,000 seats.

Looking at Prince William County, the exodus of illegal aliens from the county that has begun following passage of the countywide crackdown should help boost the median household income above where it was last year when it placed as the 7th wealthiest county in the U.S.  Then, the median household income in PWC was $81,904.  Removing the drag on this presented by illegal aliens residing in PWC (note that “median” and “average” household incomes are very different things, so the $61,112 listed for Virginia illegal aliens doesn’t quite measure up) who more than likely are even below the state average can only place PWC even higher.

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