Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.
1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)
2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)
3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)
3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)
5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)
6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)
7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)
8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)
9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)
10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)
11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)
Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
----------------
(If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweak (10/22-23)
Not only that, but a sales tax is so easy to say, well just add one percent to it to raise more revenue and next thing you know it just keeps going up and up 1 percent at a time. Look at stamps. How many increases have there been on stamps in the last 10 years.
Now, I am not a huge fan of Huckabee’s fiscal policy in the past but I do think the “fair tax” is a great idea that should be looked into further by all the candidates if it could be done right with a constitutional amendment. I think our IRS system is completely broken right now. ANYTHING that would simplify and tax code and make sure everyone pays and no one can hide their money and never pay any or very little taxes is worth exploring.
There is plenty out there to criticize Huckabee on tax wise in the past but I don’t think criticizing a “fair tax” proposal is one of them. Many strong fiscal conservatives also support the fair tax and similar ideas.
Huckabee has seen a meteoric rise in the polls because he is seen as an inovative different candidate who appeals to a very large section of the base of the GOP(Social Conservatives). To some extent the same can be said of John McCain who has seen a recent rise because he has returned to his maverick roots. The other candidates would do well to take notice because I really believe Americans are looking for change this year. I fully realize most conservative candidates are very averse to change and this is normally a good thing but in this particular year I think it has done in Mitt and Fred while leaving Rudy just barely hanging on. Its unfortunate because I think Fred was probably the most promising candidate.
The Flat Tax is much more promising than the Fair Tax.
“Fair Tax?” You’ve got to be joking. A national sales tax is one of the most regressive taxes possible — if anything it is an unfair tax! Aside from the fact that the numbers do not add up for proponents of the national sales tax, it mostly gives the wealthiest amongst us a great tax reduction and puts the screws to the poor and middle class. It’s just another example of the class warfare against the middle class the Republican Party has been waging.
The fairest tax of all is a graduated income tax. As it now stands, the income tax is riddled with holes and breaks for the wealthiest. But a major overhaul to remove these breaks can make it even fairer. And what could be fairer than for the wealthiest among us who have used our capitalist system to exploit the populace to build their wealth, give back a larger proportion of their excess income to finance the nation that enables them to become so wealthy?
I love the Internet where the completely uninformed can make damaging blanket statements.
If you bothered to read and understand the fair tax it would give more money to the middle class. It lets anyone choose to save money on taxes by simply not buying things. Food and such does not have a sales tax now and still wouldn’t. You want the big expensive new import car, well you’re going to pay more in tax for it.
The simple one that everyone forgets is tourism. Every person that comes from outside the county, pays our taxes, every illegal immigrant pays our taxes when they buy something.
Lastly, if all the other taxes are gone, then the price to produce goods in America will go down, maybe now we can stop importing everything in sight from China? Once the 23-28% sales tax is added on the price should be right at the same place it is now. Sure it’s going to suck the first 6mo to 1yr because some manufacturers will try to gouge you, but free market will take over there.
The graduated income tax is a joke. All it means to me is that I don’t make enough money to afford a good tax accountant to hide my money from the IRS like all the rich do. You can’t hide when it’s in everything you pay for.
I agree that the graduated income tax is a joke and all it does is punish achievement. The best solution is a flat tax with no deductions, but a basic large exemption. Under the Forbes plan put out in ‘96, a family of four earning under $36,000 / yr. would pay NO tax. Everything above that amount would be taxed at 15 percent.
Make $100,000 above $36,000? You pay $15,000.
Make $1,000,000 above $36,000? You pay $150,000.
It is fair. It is simple. And it doesn’t use the tax code for social engineering.
Just curious, how do you think the fair tax amounts to social engineering? Everyone pays the same rate for everything. Plus, I think it would encourage more people to work harder because you would keep more of your paycheck. The ultra wealthy who hide their money overseas would pay and those that are on the lower end of the tax bracket that can also skip out right now would pay when they purchased. I think its at least something to look into.
I do think the flat tax and the fair tax are ideas that should be looked at much closer. Of course this probably will never happen becaues it would put a government agency out of business.
I was referring to the graduated income tax with all its loopholes and deductions as social engineering, not the fair tax.
I used to enjoy the Billy Tauzin vs. Dick Armey debates over a nat’l sales tax vs. flat tax. I’m definitely a flat taxer.
Dan L,
How is it “fair” for the government to take a higher percentage of one person’s earnings than another’s? How is it fair to punish me by taking a larger and larger portion of my money for every new dollar I earn? How is it fair for the *government* to determine socio-economics favorites, establishing rules to subsidize sloth and punish diligence? What’s your problem with “breaks for the wealthiest”? Don’t you really mean, “breaks for people who pay taxes”? Last time I checked, the wealthiest people are the ones shouldering the lion’s share of the tax burden. What would be more accurate to say is that the tax code is riddled with breaks for people who already contribute little to nothing to federal revenue. The EIC is a prime example, where millions of people get a refund larger than the amount they ever had withheld from a paycheck. Meanwhile, I work my butt off to pay for it. Is THAT fair?
A sales ta
Damn, another Republican trying to exercise the few cells of grey matter that they generally have. Obviously, Riley, you probably didn’t score too highly on your LSATs, huh?
H.R. 25 clearly states that the FairTax goes into effect on January 1 AFTER the 16th Amendment is repealed…you cannot have BOTH. How embarrassing, counselor, that you speak about something you know little, if anything about. I hope you serve your clients better than you did us with this factually-barren statement about the FairTax.
Read the FairTax Book and then, on February 12, buy the book that rebuts all of the crap you’ve bought in to. Any Republican with 1/2 brain tied behind his back would would love to have the FairTax implemented…the only reason why you wouldn’t is to keep the power in the government — as opposed to the people.
And please…don’t quote from crap from FactCheck.org when you’re dealing with economics…they’re journalists…you know, the same people you believe to be biased toward the left.
Come now, no need for personal insults while trying to defend your position. It only makes you appear desperate.
Furthermore, I have not seen Dukakabee out there specifically talking about H.R. 25, only the FairTax in general. The requirement in that bill that the 16th Amendment be repealed before it goes into effect is reassuring.
However, if you think that the FairTax will reduce the size of government, or in Dukakabee’s words, eliminate the IRS, then please enlighten us as to who will be collecting this tax? And who will be processing all the pre-bate checks? This scheme sounds even more convoluted than the current system which is badly broken.
And you did nothing to refute that this is a 30 percent sales tax. (The only thing that I cited FactCheck.org on was to explain the simple matter of mathematics that it is 30 percent and not 23, but apparently you could not grasp that even though they had written so that even a simpleton could understand it.) You glossed over the fact about the double taxation aspect of it that I touched on above, too. If you want to talk substance and have an intelligent debate on this, then fine. But if the best you can do is try to impugn my LSAT scores and talk about other things of which you have no knowledge whatsoever, then you can go troll someplace else.
Some of the posts above suggest that the writers have not read the Fair Tax book(s) or are deliberately trying to mislead other people. An example to support this statement is Mr. Riley’s post in which he implores another writer to “please enlighten us as to who will be collecting this tax?” and then asks “And who will be processing all the pre-bate checks?” The answers to these questions, and Mr. Riley’s many other questions, are clearly explained in the Fair Tax books. Both books were easy reads, and I am sure that the vast majority of people–including Mr. Riley–can understand what is written therein.
I am not going to specifically answer Mr. Riley’s questions. Some individuals use the technique of constantly asking questions, despite knowing the answers, simply to put the other party on the defensive. They know that some uninformed listeners or readers will assume there must be a some legitimate problem simply because the same questions are repeatedly asked.
I suggest that anyone who wants to participate in a scholarly discussion about any issue, including the Fair Tax, first educate himself or herself on the basic facts of the issue. To do anything less is a waste of other participant’s time.