• Follow us now on

    "That some should be rich, shows that others may become rich, and, hence, is just encouragement to industry and enterprise."

    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864

    "The supply-side claim is not a claim. It is empirically true and historically convincing that with lower rates of taxation on labor and capital, the factors of production, you'll get a bigger economy."

    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp

  • Special Election – Jan 12, 2010

  • 2010

  • 2013

  • SeaWorld & Busch Gardens Conservation Fund

    In a fight between Jim Webb and Ollie North, who would win? Oh, that's right, we already know the answer to that question.

    Potential 2012 Convention Cities:

      Republicans

    • Atlanta, GA
    • Indianapolis, IN
    • San Antonio, TX

      • Democrats

    • Like we care.

    Potential 2012 Presidential Candidates:

  • Current Poll Questions

    No Current Polls.

    Visit Our Sponsors

    Advertise here

    Join Team Sarah!

  • Open Threads

    2010 Elections

    2011 Elections

    2012 Elections

    2013 Elections and Beyond

  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)

    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

  • RSS Redskins Insider

NH Primary Thoughts and Predictions

Posted on January 7, 2008 by Riley

Tomorrow is the NH Primary and it looks like it is shaping up to be a battle between McCain and Romney for the top spot with Rudy, Dukakabee and Ron Paul battling it out for third.  Fred Thompson does not appear to be a factor in NH.  Whether McCain can win will depend on which primary most independents choose to vote in.  Both McCain and Obama benefit significantly from independent voters.  I view it unlikely that they will both win their respective primaries as history tends to show independents in NH migrate to one primary or the other in bulk.  If independents were to split evenly, both McCain and Obama could conceivably win, but their margins of victory would be pretty narrow.

So, I’ll predict that Obama gets the benefit of the independents and that will leave McCain coming up a little short on the GOP side to Romney.  Dukakabee is dealt a blow when he finishes with around 10 percent.  Once again, Ron Paul will hit double digits, but not get any media coverage unless he comes in third (and even then that might not be enough for the media — see Thompson’s 3rd place Iowa finish.)

So, go ahead and express your thoughts, opinions and predictions here.  Who will win?  Who will lose?  Who won’t be left standing on Wed. morning?

Filed under: 2008 Elections, Republicans

« »

Leave a Reply