Warner earns high levels of support from liberals (88%) and moderates (70%) and even a third of conservative voters (34%). Gilmore attracts 60% of conservatives and 24% of moderate voters.
Favorability ratings for the two candidates differ greatly. Warner is viewed favorably by 68% of voters and unfavorably by 27% of voters. Gilmore earns positive reviews from 48% of Virginia voters and negative reviews from 44%.
What this tells me is Warner pretty much peaks at 57%. There’s not much more for him to gain among liberals and moderates and those conservatives could easily shift should Gilmore walk the walk or a more conservative candidate step up, maybe someone like Bob Marshall.
What really hurts Gilmore is his negatives. 44% is pretty large and you’re not going to change those for the better. The only way Gilmore can appeal to undecideds and current Warner supporters (mainly the conservatives and moderates) is hammer Warner, which not only pushes Warner’s negatives up but Gilmore’s as well.
What’s Jason trying to say here?
These numbers are very promising for a Bob Marshall candidacy.
I haven’t backed a horse in the Senate primary yet, but based on electability and overall chances for a Republican win, maybe Marshall has a better shot.
Just some thoughts.
Filed under: 2008 Elections, Bob Marshall, Jim Gilmore, Marky Mark
[...] I’ve shared my thoughts on the latest Rasmussen numbers on the Virginia Senate race at Virginia Virtucon. February 21st, 2008 at 12:54 pm | Tags: Senate, asides, election 2008, politics [...]
Bob Marshall voted for the abuser driver fees with retroactive penalties. That alone would ruin his chances at winning in NOVA.
If Marshall were the nominee, you don’t think Warner’s numbers among liberals and moderates would improve?
I think Bob voting for the abuser driver fees simply cancels itself out, given Gilmores big idea of elimating the car tax. That idea worked out real well too didnt it? We’ve fixed the abuser fee problem, however that no car tax thing still seems to lingering out there last time I checked.
The way I see it, Gilmore has nothing going for him. He’s coming off a failed Presidential run. He failed as RNC Chair. His gubernatorial adminstrations highlight, mentioned already above, was a bust- where’s his momentum going to come from?
Marshall on the other hand, has two things going for him. 1.) He’s as conservative (socially/fiscally) as any Republican in this State is ever going to be, and that alone brings a good number of folks to his camp- especially folks that are willing to give up a day during their summer to drive to Richmond to be a delegate.
Moreso- 2.) Bob Marshall ISN’T Jim Gilmore. The number of folks motivated to support Delegate Marshall simply because he isn’t Jim Gilmore, I predict is going to huge.
No different say, then the ‘anybody but Jost’ crowd that grew and grew and grew at the 1st Congressional nominating convention. Given, in this particular case there aren’t 11 other candidates vying for the nomination- nonetheless, the anti-Gilmore folks are gonna show up in masses.
Given those two elements, Bob Marshall has a much better chance than folks may think.
Wait, Marshall voted AGAINST H.B. 3202…
GGFAC-
Don’t forget- if Marshall were to win the nomination, he’ll be on the same ballot as moderate John McCain. If you’re a republican, regardless of where you place yourself on the republican spectrum- you’re going to have a reason one way or the other to go and vote in November.
That will surely benefit McCain in Virginia, as Marshall could deliver social conservates to the polls. Whether McCain could deliver moderates to Marshall, would most likely be- well, unlikely.
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Excellent points majorkong,
Anything is possible with Bob Marshall. The Gilmore crowd underestimates him at their own peril. The grassroots conservatives OUTSIDE the party structure will show up if Bob does a good job in recruiting them. Clearly, Gilmore has a weak spot with regards to the life issue, the question is can Bob Marshall exploit this? While I have yet to decide who I will support, Gilmore clearly has some major issues to fix before the convention. If Marshall can take advantage of this , he has more than a fighting chance. Could the anyone but Gilmore conservatives all of a sudden show up at the convention and suprise Gilmore and send him packing? Although Marshall is clearly a maverick, his devotion to conservative principles are hard to dislike when he finishes speaking.
Bob Marshall will cause irreparable damage to the Virginia Republican Party if he even has a decent showing at the convention. Everyone seems to simply buy the line that Bob Marshall is just a principled conservative without ever taking a close look at him. He isn’t a conservative in the mold of Geroge Allen; he’s an extremist.
Marshall has gone on the record opposing all form of birth control (not just “abortifacents”, you Marshall apologists, all forms) and has said that birth control is a problem for society because it “keeps women in the labor market.” Let’s not forget that he actually ran the American Life League which split off National Right To Life because they thought they were “liberal baby killers.”
Say what you want about Bob Marshall, but let’s end this charade of pretending he is some sort of run-of-the-mill mainstream conservative. If you want the Virginia GOP to alienate women, moderates, and mainstream conservatives for the next decade then go ahead and support him.
Underdunk, you are not helping Gilmore in the primary. A very large probably at least 85% of all convention goers will take Marshall’s stand on abortion during the convention. Calling Marshall an extremist does not help Gilmore get more primary votes since this is a sore spot already for him.
I may not agree with Marshall on several issues but I do believe he does stand up for his convictions.
Marshall’s stand on abortion will gain him many votes. The general public, and particularly young voters are increasingly becoming prolife. Look at UCLA Berkeley’s survery–almost 70 percent of young people are against abortion rights. That reflects the same percentages found among the young (18-25) surveyed in Northern Virginia.
The other thing Marshall has going for him is his personality. He is VERY likeable character.
Marshall voted against the abusive driver fees. In fact, he was the only person to stand up in opposition and say, “Why are we turning our police and sheriffs into tax collectors imposing extraordinary fines?” (Source: http://youtube.com/watch?v=JqszbMKOGzA)
Marshall does not want to ban birth control – that’s just a cop out of him trying to get abortifacents off campus. Why on earth should I be taxed so someone else can get an abortifacent?