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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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Unconstitutional

The Virginia State Supreme Court today rules that the Regional Transportation Authorities created last year by the General Assembly are unconstitutional.  Head over to Bearing Drift for audio from Gov. Timmy! and an interview with LG Bolling on this huge development. Following is the statement issued by Bolling:

STATEMENT OF LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR BOLLING ON SUPREME COURT’S RULING ON NORTHERN VIRGINIA TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY

RICHMOND – Earlier today, the Supreme Court of Virginia issued an opinion declaring the Northern Virginia regional transportation plan approved by the General Assembly in 2007 to be unconstitutional. The court concluded that the plan violated the Constitution of Virginia because it authorized an unelected body – The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority – to impose a series of fee and tax increases in Northern Virginia localities to raise funds for transportation construction. In response to this decision, Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling issued the following statement:

“The Supreme Court of Virginia has concluded that it was not proper for the General Assembly to delegate its taxing authority to the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority, an unelected body. I agree with the Supreme Court’s finding.

“The authority to tax is one of the most significant responsibilities of government and that responsibility cannot and should not be delegated to a body that is not directly responsible to the voters.

“I expressed these concerns when the Northern Virginia regional transportation plan was amended to remove the ability of localities to opt in or out of the plan by an affirmative vote of their local governing body. The Supreme Court has affirmed those concerns.

“We will also have to carefully review the Supreme Court’s opinion to determine what impact it will have on the Hampton Roads regional transportation plan. While there are differences in the manner in which fee and tax increases were imposed in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, it is my belief the Supreme Court’s decision may also invalidate significant portions of the Hampton Roads regional transportation plan.

“Needless to say, transportation continues to be the most important issue facing Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Now that these provisions of the regional transportation plans approved by the General Assembly last year have been declared unconstitutional, the General Assembly will have to revisit the issue of providing adequate transportation funding to meet the needs of these important regions. I look forward to working with the members of the General Assembly to find the most responsible way to accomplish that goal.”

2 Responses

  1. No snide remark about Speak “Pass the Buck” Howell?

  2. I recall Bolling being part of the thundering Republican stampede at the time. (He may have been hedging his bets a bit more cagily than others, but once the train started rolling, he got on board). It seems more than a bit disingenuous for him to be trying to distance himself now.

    I look for the many posts and comments saluting not just Del. Marshall, who, for all his eccentricities, was consistent and correct on this one, but also Senator Chichester, one of the few clear-sighted constitutional and fiscal conservatives who saw the problem with this conservative-lite abandonment of responsibility in an election year.

    Chichester always preached matching appetites to revenues and suffered little foolishness from those who lacked the political backbone to pay for the Commonwealth’s bills. The current crop of cartoon conservatives had the appetites, but not the discipline or conviction to manage the Commonwealth’s budget responsibly. They panicked when they saw that the voters were sick of inaction on transportation and tried to build themselves and election year bomb shelter. Chichester got a lot of abuse from those who bridled at his insistence that appetites had a price and that the bill had to be paid. I expect that many of those folks will now recant for their vilification of a steady voice for conservative fiscal policies. (I also expect the Easter Bunny to hop through my back yard this morning).

    Now it’s back to the drawing board on transportation (at least the funding side). The years of ducking these challenges by pretending they don’t exist or passing the buck to someone else may be at an end.

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