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    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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GOP Serious About Taking Back VA in ‘09

Virginia Republicans Unite in Support of

“McDonnell-Bolling” 2009

 

- GOP Congressional Delegation, All District Chairs, GOP Leadership in General Assembly, Other Leaders Sign Letter Supporting Ticket-

 

Richmond- In an unprecedented display of party unity, every Republican member of Congress from Virginia, every Republican District Chair in Virginia, the entire General Assembly GOP leadership team, the leadership of the State Central Committee, and a host of other prominent and involved Republican leaders have signed a letter to party members statewide voicing their strong support of Bob McDonnell for Governor, and Bill Bolling for Lieutenant Governor in 2009.

 

In the letter, these leaders, joined by other notable Republicans from across the Commonwealth including former Governor Jim Gilmore, former Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, and Republican Party of Virginia Chairman John Hager, stated, “We….. strongly endorse the ticket of Bob McDonnell for Governor and Bill Bolling for Lieutenant Governor in 2009 and urge all Virginia Republicans to join us.”

 

The letter continues, “A McDonnell-Bolling ticket will unite our Republican party around its core conservative principles, while putting forth strong, experienced leadership to meet the challenges facing our Commonwealth.”

 

Speaking about the letter, Attorney General Bob McDonnell remarked, “A united Republican Party is the first step towards ending the Democrats 8 years of control of the executive branch in Virginia. Today, we have taken a tremendous step forward in our effort to reclaim the Governor’s Mansion, and to win all three statewide races next year. Bill and I are honored to have received the support of our Republican members of Congress, every Republican District Chair, the Republican leadership in the General Assembly, the leadership of the State Central Committee, and a number of other prominent and involved Virginia Republicans. From the grassroots to the halls of Congress, Virginia Republicans have united in support of our ticket. Together, we are going to win next year, and bring innovative, vigorous, conservative leadership to Virginia.”

 

Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling noted, “Bob and I are honored to have the support of such a distinguished group of Republican leaders. I am pleased that the Republican Party has united behind the McDonnell-Bolling ticket and our positive vision for the future of Virginia. We will offer the people of Virginia the most experienced ticket to ever seek statewide office in Virginia, and a clear blueprint for finding solutions to the many challenges we face today. We are looking forward to the campaign that lies ahead and to victory in November of 2009.” 

A copy of the letter is attached to this release. 

 

###

 

 

April 30, 2008

 

 

Dear Republican Leader:

 

      We, the undersigned, strongly endorse the ticket of Bob McDonnell for Governor and Bill Bolling for Lieutenant Governor in 2009 and urge all Virginia Republicans to join us. 

 

      A McDonnell-Bolling ticket will unite our Republican party around its core conservative principles, while putting forth strong, experienced leadership to meet the challenges facing our Commonwealth.  

 

      Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling share a common conservative philosophy, a track record of solving problems that impact the lives of Virginia’s citizens and the proven ability to win tough campaigns.

 

      After two successive Democratic Administrations, now is the time for our Republican party to unite behind this strong, energetic ticket. 

 

Sincerely,

 

 

Rob Wittman

 

Thelma Drake

U.S. Congressman

   

U.S. Congresswoman

 

 

 

Randy Forbes

 

Virgil Goode

U.S. Congressman

 

U.S. Congressman

 

 

 

Bob Goodlatte

 

Eric Cantor

U.S. Congressman

 

U.S. Congressman

 

 

 

Frank Wolf

 

Tom Davis

U.S. Congressman

   

U.S. Congressman

 

 

 

Jim Gilmore

 

Jerry Kilgore

Former Governor of Virginia

 

Former Attorney General of Virginia

 

 

 

John Hager

 

Ed Gillespie

Chairman, Republican Party of Virginia & Former Lieutenant Governor of Virginia

 

Former Chairman, Republican Party of Virginia & Former Chairman, Republican National Committee

 

 

 

Don Huffman

 

William J. Howell

Former Chairman, Republican Party of Va.

 

Speaker of the House

 

 

 

Morgan Griffith

 

Sam Nixon

House Majority Leader

 

House Majority Caucus Chairman

 

 

 

Kirk Cox

 

Tommy Norment

House Majority Whip

   

Senate Minority Leader

 

 

 

Steve Newman

 

Walter Stosch

Senate Minority Caucus Chairman

 

Senate Republican Leader Emeritus

 

 

 

Kenneth Stolle

 

Morton Blackwell

Senate Republican Leader Pro Tempore

 

Republican National Committeeman

 

 

 

Kathy Terry

 

Mike Thomas

Republican National Committeeman

 

1st Vice Chairman, Republican Party of Va.

 

 

 

Juanita Balenger

 

Kevin Gentry

Eastern Vice Chairwoman

 

Eastern Vice Chairman

 

 

 

Trixie Averill

 

Jim Hale

Western Vice Chairwoman

 

Western Vice Chairman

 

 

 

Rick Neel

 

Fred Malek

Treasurer, Republican Party of Va.

 

Finance Chairman, Republican Party of Va.

 

 

 

Lisa Gable

 

Polly Campbell

Co-Finance Chairman

 

Treasurer, Republican Party of Va.

 

 

 

Tom Foley

 

Bruce Meyer

Chairman, 1st District GOP Committee

 

Chairman, 2nd District GOP Committee

 

 

 

Mike Wade

 

Jason Gray

Chairman, 3rd District GOP Committee

 

Chairman, 4th District GOP Committee

 

 

 

Tucker Watkins

 

Fred Anderson

Chairman, 5th District GOP Committee

 

Chairman, 6th District GOP Committee

 

 

 

Linwood Cobb

 

David Avella

Chairman, 7th District GOP Committee

 

Chairman, 8th District GOP Committee

 

 

 

Stan Young

 

Jim Rich

Chairman, 9th District GOP Committee

 

Chairman, 10th District GOP Committee

 

 

 

Becky Stoeckel

 

Lori-Ann Miller

Chairman, 11th District GOP Committee

 

Chairman, Young Republican Federation of Va.

 

 

 

Adam Bitely

 

Jim Hyland

Chairman, College Republican Federation

 

Chairman, Fairfax County GOP

 

 

 

Lyle Beefelt

 

Donald Williams

Chairman, Prince William County GOP

 

Chairman, Chesterfield County GOP

 

 

 

Kenny Golden

 

Mike Wade

Chairman, Virginia Beach GOP

 

Henrico County GOP

 

 

 UPDATE:  Check out the Bearing Drift Podcast and Post on this.

16 Responses

  1. There is one misidentification in the letter. Polly Campbell is actually the Secretary of the Republican Party of Va. Rick Neel, who is also in the letter, is the Treasurer. They are both great people who have contributed a lot to RPV over the years.

  2. Um, is this a “don’t run against these guys or we’re going to get you” letter?

    Also note, they didn’t mention Cuccinelli in the letter.

  3. Cucc will have an opponent.

  4. And the only thing stopping Bolling and McDonnell from having an opponent is this letter.

    So Bolling and McDonnell are being protected from any opponent by the RPV, while Cucc isn’t.

  5. Maybe I’m missing something – are you saying that Cucc should be protected from an opponent by RPV?

    Cucc is a conservative candidate but he’s introduced some goofy legislation.

    But the bottom line is – RPV shouldn’t protect him while other conservatives are still mulling getting into the race.

  6. And how do you not know that “other conservatives are still mulling getting into the race” for Governor or Lieutenant Governor?

  7. Wait a minute – back up here – RPV didn’t initiate this deal. If someone had really wanted to run for either spot, they had the opportunity to pipe up.

  8. McDonnell and Bolling are the statewide “incumbents”. Currently, no one is challenging them, and anyone who does would not have a chance. This letter just makes that obvious to thick skulled.

    Cuccinelli is running for an open seat. He may be the favorite, but he has not won the nomination yet. Others will most likely jump in.

  9. Anonymous: So candidates are going to be required to announce a year in advance of the primary/convention now?

    Light Horse: You assume much for something that’s more than a year away. After all, wasn’t Tom Davis going to be running for Senate this year? Wait — isn’t Gilmore going to win the Republican nomination for the Senate race?

    Anyone else think that John Hager is looking for some help here during his run for Chairman of the RPV?

  10. [...] every well-known Republican in the state for 2009 (Bearing Drift, Scott’s Morning Brew, and Virginia Virtucon).  Still, as soon as I saw it, a cold shiver went down my spine, and nothing in the [...]

  11. People were expecting that Tom Davis would be challenged for the Senate nomination. It’s not a surprise that Jim Gilmore is running. It’s an open seat.

    Candidates are not “required to announce a year in advance”, but it helps a lot.

  12. Mr. Watson,

    I understand the theory behind what you’re saying, and, in fact, if anyone were to decide to challenge Bob McDonnell or Bill Bolling, there would be nothing to actually prevent them from doing so, and if that person were to turn out enough people to get more votes at the Convention, they would be the nominee.

    However, the practical reality is that it is awfully nice for our party to be united behind a popular statewide officeholder in the Governor’s race and a popular incumbent in the Lieutenant Governor’s race, while the Democrats are trying to sort out all their entire ‘09 ticket. As for the Attorney General’s race, since that is an open seat race, I doubt Ken Cuccinelli was expecting an uncontested nomination, and I have no doubt that he and his potential opponents (who appear to be Paul Harris and John Brownlee) are more than up to the challenge of a competitive campaign.

    As for announcing a year in advance, the fact is that campaigns are starting earlier and earlier every cycle. People can disagree as to whether or not that’s actually a good thing, but it’s reality, and I think it’s better for our candidates to understand that reality and begin the hard work of raising money and building an organization early rather than late.

  13. I think a big part of the problem with the Kilgore campaign in 2005, and the Allen campaign in 2006, and before them, the Earley campaign in 2001, were that the candidates sat on their leads. The candidates avoided saying controversial things, and expected to win because Virginia was a conservative state. But Virginia is no longer as conservative as it was, and the Democrats, under Mark Warner’s leadership and money, are better organized than they used to be.

  14. I think a big part of the problem with the Kilgore campaign in 2005, and the Allen campaign in 2006, and before them, the Earley campaign in 2001, were that the candidates sat on their leads. The candidates avoided saying controversial things, and expected to win because Virginia was a conservative state.

    Um…Kilgore lost because he wanted to demonize Catholics. He also was too scare to debate Kaine and Ross Pouts together. Also, didn’t he refuse to answer if he would make abortion a crime?

    Allen lost because of one word: “Macaca”.

    Earley: No idea, before I started paying attention to politics.

    So much for not saying “controversial things”.

    Also, you might want to check out D.J.’s post about the situation (the pingback is a couple comments above).

  15. [...] These leaders demonstrated that commitment today wtih a letter entitled “Virginia Republicans Unite in Support of McDonnell-Bolling 2009. Riley has the details here: GOP Serious About Taking Back VA in ‘09 [...]

  16. [...] Assembly, Other Leaders Sign Letter Supporting Ticket- ? Richmond- In an unprecedented displayhttp://virginiavirtucon.wordpress.com/2008/04/30/gop-serious-about-taking-back-va-in-09/Council considers cheap laptops – with a twist on purchase The Wellington AdvertiserWhen Centre [...]

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