Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.
1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)
2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)
3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)
3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)
5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)
6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)
7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)
8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)
9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)
10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)
11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)
Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
----------------
(If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweak (10/22-23)
Who is this nastygram supposed to make me want to vote for??
Progress Index
Politics among the pine trees
BY PATRICK KANE
STAFF WRITER
04/17/2008
WAKEFIELD — Virginia’s next senator sat to the left of the microphone, wearing a blue shirt and khakis. Whether that is former Gov. Mark Warner, Del. R.G. “Bob” Marshall or former Gov. Jim Gilmore is yet to be decided.
The trio of senate hopefuls were the stars at the 60th Shad Planking, a southside Virginia tradition binding politics and salty fish. Nearly 3,000 turned out to hear the latest on the campaign trail — and spit out shad bones.
Former Lt. Gov. John Hager, who serves as chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, introduced the trio to the crowd at the Wakefield Sportsman’s Club. Warner won the coin toss, and went first.
*****Warner offered his endorsement of Hager, who is fighting Del. Jeff Frederick for the chairmanship. He joked that only a dyed-in-the-wool Republican would let his son marry into President George W. Bush’s family with such low public approval ratings.******
Warner touted his accomplishments as governor, including several awards for state management.
“I will be going after every Virginian to get their support for this job application,” he said. He hopes to create a “radical centrist” coalition in the Senate because “I don’t think the American public trusts either party enough to give them a blank check.”
Warner, who lost to John Warner in 1996, showed the crowd the update to that campaign’s “Mark not John” bumper sticker — “Mark not JimBob.”
Marshall, one the most outspoken members of the House of Delegates, hit the audience with jokes and a resume of conservative accomplishments. He penned the Marriage Amendment to ban gay unions, and has put forward countless bills to limit abortion.
“I’m not a go along to get along politician,” he said.
Marshall also fought against the creation of transportation boards with taxation powers, drawing a big cheer from the crowd about “taxation without representation.”
Gilmore tore off the gloves, tearing into Warner’s record. He said Warner lied about killing the estate tax, removing the last remnants of the car tax and not raising other taxes.
“When [Warner] runs for Senate and says he’s going to raise your taxes, you’d better believe him,” Gilmore said.
By comparison, he put lottery money into education, hired classroom teachers and supported Virginia’s technology infrastructure.
“You all know me,” Gilmore said, imploring the crowd to keep the seat in Republican hands.
Following the speeches, Warner said he was “not surprised by the tenure of Mr. Gilmore’s comments.” His predecessor left a massive deficit in Warner’s lap, causing a tax increase that even some conservatives in the legislature supported.
All three men began their speeches with mention of the Virginia Tech shootings, which happened a year ago. Marshall led the crowd in the Lord’s prayer. Warner said their hearts and minds were at Tech, and Gilmore said a year ago “we were all from Tech.”
Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who gave a moving address at last year’s somber event, and Attorney General Bob McDonnell were there but did not speak. McDonnell is taking the lead in next year’s governor’s race. Also on stage were Dels. Riley Ingram, R-62th, Roslyn Tyler, D-75th and Tommy Barlow, D-64th, several Ruritans officials and state Sen. Fred Quayle, R-11th.
Members of the Wakefield Ruritans, which hosted the event, were hard at work feeding the huge gathering. They cooked about 1,200 pounds of shad nailed to wood planks starting early in the morning, said Gene Brittle of the Ruritans. The bony, salty fish was served with fried catfish, cornbread biscuits and sides.
“We’re not that big of a club and we pull the community together,” he said. Most folks come home to Wakefield for Christmas and Shad Planking. The money goes toward rescue squad, fire department, little league programs, scholarships and church mission groups, Brittle said.
The other Shad Planking tradition is a sign competition between campaigns. Warner topped the sign count driving down U.S. Route 460 from Petersburg, with McDonnell-Bolling markers second. Gilmore’s signs were few. The AARP, Sierra Club, state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli for Attorney General, Rep. J. Randy Forbes, Rep. Thelma Drake, Hager for Chairman and several Sussex County races were also advertised.
As he visited with friends before the speeches, Ingram said he’s been coming to Shad Planking since the early ’60s.
“I just enjoy seeing people. I see some that I only see once a year. I don’t really eat the shad, I just come to see people. That’s the fun, the fellowship,” he said.
• Patrick Kane may be reached at 722-5155 or pkane@progress-index.com.
None of the above?
“Former Lt. Gov. John Hager, who serves as chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, introduced the trio to the crowd at the Wakefield Sportsman’s Club. Warner won the coin toss, and went first. Warner offered his endorsement of Hager, who is fighting Del. Jeff Frederick for the chairmanship.”
- The Progress Index, 4/17/2008
http://www.progress-index.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=19492104&BRD=2271&PAG=461
Jeff’s response to Hager:
http://www.votejeff.org
Check the facts!
You probably just got an email and/or phone call from John Hager questioning my integrity.
John Hager started this campaign by personally attacking me in (of all places) the Washington Post and now he’s upset that we have reprinted the newspaper account of Hager’s former boss, Mark Warner, endorsing him.
You know, as Ronald Reagan used to say “the facts are stubborn things”. I would encourage you to check the facts yourself, and then you can determine who you think is or is not telling the truth:
At best, John Hager is not doing his homework; at worst, well… I’ll let you decide.
For more information about John Hager’s endorsements, please visit my website.
Once again, have a great holiday weekend.
Sincerely,
Jeff Frederick
The Frederick campaign would have been better served by simply pointing out the inconvenient facts about how chummy Hager is with Warner. Even though one newspaper account characterizes Warner’s words about Hager (in response to Hager’s gushing praise and generous words about Warner) at the Shad Planking as an “endorsement,” I think exactly *zero* people actually believe Mark Warner has actively taken a side in this contest.
I also think Hager would be better served by just sticking to the facts. Jeff Frederick has “viciously” attacked Speaker Howell and Republican volunteers? Please. That must be the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard in a campaign in a long while. An indignant letter from a candidate’s wife hardly amounts to a vicious attack. I have no idea what Hager means by Frederick viciously attacking Republican volunteers, but it sounds equally silly.
As far as Hager’s description of Frederick as “desperate and losing,” from what I’ve seen it’s most definitely the opposite. I’ve been to a couple of district conventions (including the 1st, where there is oddly still lingering resentment over his backing of Paul Jost for Congress) and of the fellow-activists I’ve spoken with are about 2-to-1 in favor of Frederick, which has got to come as a complete surprise to Hager, who thought he had the whole thing wrapped up with the (formerly) unanimous backing of all the district chairmen.
I would agree with Bull Elephant, Frederick seems to be leading big here in SW Va. He attended the ninth district convention and stayed all day. A lot of people were very impressed that he even showed up. Often we are forgotten here in SW Va. People were talking all day about how they would be supporting him at state. He also has had some of his staff helping set up units in counties where there wasn’t any activity. I talked to a guy from Covington who said that Jeff helped by asking the Bath county unit to help with a mass meeting. The couldn’t get any help from Richmond so they turned to Jeff.
To me, Jeff was correct in bringing to light the fact that it was reported that Mark Warner did offer his endorsement to Hager:
QUOTE FROM HTTP://VOTEJEFF.ORG
——————-
John Hager, who served in Governor Mark Warner’s cabinet, was recently endorsed by his former boss. Warner, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate offered his endorsement of Mr. Hager for the Chairmanship of the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV):
“Former Lt. Gov. John Hager, who serves as chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, introduced the trio to the crowd at the Wakefield Sportsman’s Club. Warner won the coin toss, and went first. Warner offered his endorsement of Hager, who is fighting Del. Jeff Frederick for the chairmanship.”
– The Progress Index, 4/17/2008 (Click here to read full story)
That’s not all.
Just recently, the Chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia also offered his endorsement of John Hager for RPV Chairman:
“I consider John Hager a friend … whom the Republicans would be smart to re-elect as party chair.”
– Dickie Cranwell Chairman, Democratic Party of Virginia
Someone really needs to call Ed Gillespie and tell him that the Bush Administration has flat lined and the best way he can serve the country and his party is to come back and clean up the mess wrapped in a fiasco wrapped in a disaster that is the RPV.
This whole sorry spectacle is like watching amateur night at the Appollo–only that Sandman the Clown isn’t around to escort both parties off the stage.