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    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

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    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

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    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

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    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

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McCain-Obama — The Tortoise and the Hare ‘09?

Posted on July 14, 2008 by Riley

Sure it is pretty early for the horse race polls to mean very much, but it is worth noting that John McCain has now pulled into a tie (here and here) with Barry Obama.

Filed under: 2008 Elections, National Politics, Polls

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One Response

  1. Rittinger, on July 14th, 2008 at 11:10 am Said:

    The Newsweek thing is the most astonishing because the pooling numbers are weighed so favorably for Obama–Rasmussen has a similar pool assumption problem, but it is not as big as Newsweek.

    Even more revealing is the fact that Obama has not released his fundraising totals. I have talked to a couple of Dem operatives who have told me the fundraising thing is not good and Obama may have made a big miscalculation in both breaking his promise and walking away from the public matching funds. As one Clintonista explained to me–small donors are nice and all, but when the economy is tight they can’t afford to send you an extra $20. There is a sense among a lot of Dem insiders that Barry O peaked in March and it has been all downhill since. Tack all of this bad news to the fact that the DNC is in absolute shambles while the RNC has suprisingly turned into a fundraising juggernaut and the Presidential outlook for Dems is very bleak.

    Another Dem operative type told me that he was starting to think that Obama was “the black Howard Dean”, that is, as people get to know him they get more and more uneasy about him. While John Kerry was a bad candidate, this Dem said that if Dean hadn’t imploded “Bush would have won a Dukakis-style landslide against him and also would have built a Senate majority that we couldn’t have overcome in 2006.” While things continue to look good for Dems on the Senate and House side, this Dem and others I have spoked to are terrified that if Barry goes down the toilet over the next couple of months he will drag down the whole party–there are already some indications that Sunnunu is pulling back into it against Shaheen because of Obama’s lack of popularity in the Granite State and New Mexico is tightening into a real barn burner.

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