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    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)

    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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OPEN THREAD – 2009 Elections

Posted on July 14, 2008 by Riley

As we’re getting into the dog days of summer and not much in the way of political news to talk about, we turn our heads forward this week with a series of Open Threads dedicated to future election years.  First up, 2009.  Sure, there are the statewide races for Gov., LG and AG.  But don’t forget that all 100 members of the House of Delegates are up, plus a number of local offices such as seats on the Stafford, Spotsylvania and Fluvanna Boards of County Supervisors for example, too.

So, who do you see on the horizon next year?  What are you hearing?  Which election results will people be talking about the day after Election Day 2009?  Are there any races or candidates that currently aren’t on anyone’s radar deserving of note?  Here’s your chance to throw in your own two cents!

Filed under: 2009 Elections, Open Thread, Virginia Politics

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19 Responses

  1. chesapeake, on July 14th, 2008 at 10:30 am Said:

    2009 is just around the corner. McDonnell is going to clean house for Gov.

  2. James Atticus Bowden, on July 14th, 2008 at 10:59 am Said:

    Observations under the title – Master/Commander/Captain Obvious:

    2008 sets 2009.

    If Jim Gilmore runs as the Conservative Champion and wins and/or if McCain runs as so significantly less odious than Obama to win, then the stage is set for a new play with new actors in a drama with hope. Or if they lose, its a melodrama masquerading as tragicomedy worthy of exciting the audience to boo them off the stage. Either way the voters come off the last act of 2008 with keen impressions.

    GA in 2009. The Republicans can provide Conservative solutions from the start, or waste time, energy, and credibility as they did with HB 6055 in the special session. Either sets the stage for the big race in November. They will bleed more from the base or pump people up.

    How they run. If McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli run as brand label imperiled Republicans with the sweeping expanse of ideas that Earley, Kilgore and Allen used – they can lose too. If they run as Conservatives with clear, good governance initiatives based on sound Conservative principles – they should win well.

  3. Salem Republicans, on July 14th, 2008 at 11:51 am Said:

    From the anecdotal evidence I’m hearing around Virginia, don’t be so quick to assume Cuccinelli will be on the ticket. Brownlee is making some serious inroads. Gonna be fun.

  4. Anon, on July 14th, 2008 at 5:53 pm Said:

    No kidding! Brownlee is a much stronger candidate and I believe he will win. Also, look at the fundraising. Brownlee raised over $100,000 is just 40 days and Cuccinelli, who has been running for months, posted only $125,000. Cuccinelli also is a sitting state senator who has been raising money for years. Brownlee is going to be very tough to beat for Cuccinelli and any Democrat.

  5. Riley, on July 14th, 2008 at 9:09 pm Said:

    On the local front, the 2009 elections may be known as “The Year of the Conservative Blogger” with D.J. McGuire in Spotsylvania, Shaun Kenney in Fluvanna and Scott Hirons in Stafford all well positioned for seats on their respective Board of County Supervisors…

  7. Shaun Kenney, on July 15th, 2008 at 12:07 pm Said:

    Cuccinelli is going to dominate Brownlee. Not just because he’s a legislator, not because he’s a known quantity, not because conservatives know him as a pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment, pro-family, and limited government warrior, and not even because he takes commonsense values and win in Northern Virginia.

    Why is Cuccinelli going to win? It’s because he doesn’t have anonymous commenters boost his candidacy. ;)

    Besides, Brownlee needs some election experience first, and not at the state level. That’s not a criticism; just an observation (and one that Brownlee has to have a good answer for in the long term).

  8. rightwingliberal, on July 15th, 2008 at 12:56 pm Said:

    Don’t be so sure, Shaun. I’m a Cuccinelli guy (endorsement to come later today), but so long as Foster gives eastern RINOs an excuse to stay away from Ken, I’d actually call Brownlee the favorite.

    Conventions are won and lost in the 9th District.

  9. Riley, on July 15th, 2008 at 2:34 pm Said:

    Ken just reports having raised $125K and has $110K on hand. He raised $1.2M for state senate last year.

  11. Salem Republicans, on July 16th, 2008 at 10:28 am Said:

    I don’t think there’s any question Cuccinelli is benefitted by a convention. However, several factors will play in Brownlee’s favor. First, Foster is apparently in this for the long haul and that hurts Cuccinelli. Second, Brownlee will do VERY well in the 6th and 9th where convention delagates usually carry a lot of weighted votes. Third, Brownlee has an AG resume (whereas Cuccinelli has an LG resume). Anway, it’ll be a fun few months. FWIW, I am not a “Brownlee guy” nor have I endorsed him. I think both guys would be good AGs although I think Brownlee is probably a better general candidate.

    http://roanokevalleyrepublicans.blogspot.com/2008/07/brownlee-wins-initial-fundraising.html

  12. Shaun Kenney, on July 17th, 2008 at 10:03 am Said:

    Can anyone verify whether Brownlee has actually run or been involved in a campaign?

    Cooch will do extremely well in the convention. As any Bob Marshall supporter whether they appreciate the fact that Ken stuck his neck out for Bob… and the answer is a definitive yes.

    That’ll pay off in the end.

  13. Anonymous, on July 17th, 2008 at 9:43 pm Said:

    What district is Hirons in in Stafford?

  14. Felix A, on July 31st, 2008 at 2:13 pm Said:

    When is the 2009 Va. Primary Election Dates – does anyone know?

  15. Riley, on July 31st, 2008 at 2:22 pm Said:

    Probably June 9, 2009. It is usually the second Tue. in June.

  16. Belle Hertanez, on November 9th, 2008 at 9:29 pm Said:

    Governor – Bob McDonnell

    I’ve been hearing rumors about Corey Stewart in the race for Lieutenant Governor.

    Anything on the 52nd District?

  17. J.P. Wonderin, on January 25th, 2009 at 5:16 pm Said:

    Could anyone tell me who’s running in the primary to replace Del. Hargrove in the 55th House district?

  18. major pain, on March 26th, 2009 at 3:41 pm Said:

    When you all go to vote please try to remember (seems a lot of fellow Virginians have forgotten): GOD, family, country.
    thanks for your time. yeah the major pain said that

  19. SvitlanaMozgova, on June 10th, 2009 at 11:30 pm Said:

    Suspect is elderly man believed to have link to white supremacist groups
    http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/images/news/photos/2009/06/10/holocaust-museum-cp-w-68483.jpg
    A security guard was shot to death after an elderly man said to have ties to white supremacist groups walked into the United States Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday and opened fire, officials say.
    The man shot the guard with a rifle as soon as he entered the building at 12:52 p.m. ET, said Cathy Lanier, the chief of D.C.’s city police. The guard was taken to George Washington University Hospital, where he later died.
    Read More

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