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    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

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    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

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    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

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OPEN THREAD – 2011 Elections

Posted on July 16, 2008 by Riley

Up next in our series of dog days of summer Open Threads dedicated to future election years is 2011.  This will be the first election held after redistricting based upon the 2010 census, so much is bound to change.  All 140 members of the General Assembly will be up (40 senators and 100 delegates) as well as local races in some of Virginia’s biggest counties including Fairfax, Prince William and Loudoun.

Which areas will gain seats and which will lose them?  How will these changes help the GOP as they strive to retake the Senate or will the Dems put control of the House in play?  Who will join the ranks of elected officials at the local level for the first time and become part of their team’s bench for future years?

Let it all loose here!

(Previous Open Threads can be found here: 2009 and 2010.)

Filed under: 2011 Elections, Open Thread, Virginia Politics

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6 Responses

  1. James Atticus Bowden, on July 16th, 2008 at 10:28 am Said:

    2011 will be an interesting election. See where the re-districting lines are drawn – and the let the games begin.

  2. Light Horse, on July 16th, 2008 at 10:34 am Said:

    If Obama is President, 2011 will be good for Republicans in Virginia. If McCain is President, I don’t know.

  3. rightwingliberal, on July 16th, 2008 at 10:36 am Said:

    Odds are the biggest primary story will be in the 24th Senate District.

    I’m curious to see if the Dems draw up a more Hanger-friendly district out there. The current lines seemed designed more to protect RINOs than the GOP majorities. The Dems won the Senate last year with FEWER votes than the Republicans had.

  4. Light Horse, on July 16th, 2008 at 10:59 am Said:

    In 2000, the Senate lines were drawn to protect incumbents, not to maximize the majority Republicans. The only incumbent who was not protected was Leslie Byrne, who was unpopular with Senators in both parties. In 2010, I think the Senate will still draw the lines protect incumbents, not to maximize the majority party, even if it is Democrats.

    In 2000, the House lines were drawn to maximize Republican and minority Democrat seats. Non-minority Democrats were the odd men out. I think in 2010, the Republicans will still be in the majority and will still draw the lines to maximize Republican and minority Democrat seats.

  5. Hirons, on July 16th, 2008 at 11:03 am Said:

    2011 will be a good year for PWC, because our own Jim Riley will have the opporunity to fill the Dumfries Seat on the PWC BOCS (that is if Maureen Caddigan decides to step aside).

  6. Riley, on July 17th, 2008 at 12:08 pm Said:

    That is flattering, Scott. Obviously, I would only consider this if Maureen decided against running for another term AND I had a compelling reason to run myself. I’m not one who will run for an office just in order to be someone — if I ever do run for something, it will be because there is something I want to accomplish in that particular position.

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