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    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



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    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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Is Larry Sabato Making Stuff Up For His “Crystal Ball” To Regain Relevance?

Earlier today, we reported that UVA Prof. Larry Sabato claimed in his latest “Crystal Ball” that:

Under an agreement previously reached with the now-presumptive 2009 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Attorney General Bob McDonnell, Bolling would be the Republican nominee for a full term. (The election is in November 2009.) Bolling had side-stepped a divisive GOP primary with a grateful McDonnell in order to run for reelection to the lieutenant governorship, but part of their gentleman’s agreement–confirmed by both men to me at the time–guaranteed Bolling the nomination if he should succeed to the top spot before the June 2009 nominating deadline.

Very convenient that we’re now just hearing about this part of the private agreement and that Larry Sabato somehow supposedly insinuated himself into it as well to be in such a position as to know it.

Since Sabato’s fall from grace in 2006 when he let his pretentious pretense of nonpartisanship slip and he injected himself into the George Allen-Jim Webb race, attempting to back up dubious claims against Allen from their college days that were later dismissed, Sabato has suffered a much lower profile than he once enjoyed.  Recently, he’s been sticking his head back out of his hole in Charlottesville, making pronouncements like people care what he has to say anymore.  Now, he’s all over the place claiming this inside knowledge of part of the agreement between McDonnell and Bolling.

For the record, this is what Randy Marcus, Chief of Staff to Lt. Gov. Bolling, had to say on this whole matter earlier today when we asked him for comment (Marcus also included Tucker Martin from McDonnell’s office on the statement to Virtucon):

 

The discussion of Obama’s choice of a running mate is all speculative and we are not going to comment on speculation. In the unlikely event that this becomes an actual issue, we will cross that bridge at that time. [emphasis added]

Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell are a united team and they will continue to work together to build the Republican Party and win elections in 2008 and 2009.

So, it would appear that this bridge has yet to be crossed. That begs the question — is Larry Sabato making things up in order to try and regain relevance?

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  1. [...] Virginia Virtucon:  Is Larry Sabato Making Stuff Up For His “Crystal Ball” To Regain Relevance? [...]

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