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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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The Palin Homerun

Palin is conservative, has executive experience, is a Mom of 5, has a son serving in Iraq, is pro-life, is a small government R, is a fresh young face, and is likely to appeal to some undecided women.

One reason the Palin choice is brilliant is because as mentioned yesterday, there is no primary baggage with this pick.  Let Biden try to beat up on Palin in the VP debate – she will hold her own.  The selection of Palin emasculates Biden.

It is a homerun for the McCain campaign and a historic moment.  Palin is the second woman nominee for Vice President in the United States and the first woman Republican VP nominee. 

I don’t share the view that Palin is “very risky” as Doug does at Below the Beltway.  In fact, I think she presents the least risk of all the major contenders.  Romney, Guiliani, Huckabee all carry primary baggage and picking one of those would have upset the other two groups to some degree and for that reason present much more risk to the presidential campaign.  Lieberman would have split the party and many of us would not being going door to door or making phone calls were he the pick.  Tom Ridge would not have affirmed our party’s pro-life platform.  Cantor, though he would make an excellent VP, is another member of Congress and I think he would have been seen (unfairly) as a Washington Insider. 

Apparently there is some investigation of whether Palin pressured state officials for the firing of her brother in law, but there doesn’t appear to be any meat to the story.  Palin is the perfect response to Hillary’s speech at the DNC:

I’m a United States Senator because in 1848 a group of courageous women and a few brave men gathered in Seneca Falls, New York, many traveling for days and nights, to participate in the first convention on women’s rights in our history.

And so dawned a struggle for the right to vote that would last 72 years, handed down by mother to daughter to granddaughter – and a few sons and grandsons along the way.

These women and men looked into their daughters’ eyes, imagined a fairer and freer world, and found the strength to fight. To rally and picket. To endure ridicule and harassment. To brave violence and jail.

And after so many decades – 88 years ago on this very day – the 19th amendment guaranteeing women the right to vote would be forever enshrined in our Constitution.

My mother was born before women could vote. But in this election my daughter got to vote for her mother for President.

This is the story of America. Of women and men who defy the odds and never give up.

How do we give this country back to them?

By following the example of a brave New Yorker , a woman who risked her life to shepherd slaves along the Underground Railroad.

And on that path to freedom, Harriett Tubman had one piece of advice.

If you hear the dogs, keep going.

If you see the torches in the woods, keep going.

If they’re shouting after you, keep going.

Don’t ever stop. Keep going.

If you want a taste of freedom, keep going.

Even in the darkest of moments, ordinary Americans have found the faith to keep going.

I’ve seen it in you. I’ve seen it in our teachers and firefighters, nurses and police officers, small business owners and union workers, the men and women of our military – you always keep going.

We are Americans. We’re not big on quitting.

It is the Republican party who will elect the nation’s first Vice President.  But she will be conservative.  She will be pro-life.  She will be a self-starting small Government Republican who believes in self reliance.  She has a personal stake seeing the job completed in Iraq.  Let’s get to campaigning.  McCain-Palin 2008.  Hoo-rah!

Update 1: 11:36am – Drudgereport has crashed due to so much Palin traffic!

Update 2: NRO posts reactions, first thoughts.  Townhall says ‘extraordinary.’  Washington Post “stunn[ed].”  Limbaugh: “We have a Babe on the Ticket.”  Wall Street Journal says Palin “boosts McCain’s reformer image.”  US News says Palin pick “stomach-churning news” for DemsAP incorrectly links Palin’s amount of experience to Obama’s (psst…Palin is a Governor, you’re an ex-State Senator who won election by disqualifying opponents…)  CBS: ‘She Inhaled’  Bearing Drift notes Fred Thompson’s reaction.

Update 3: McCain presents Sarah Palin, the first woman GOP VP Nominee.

McCain’s candidacy has been helped quite a bit with this pick.

What is your reaction?

13 Responses

  1. There are two reasons I consider it risky pick

    First, there’s the fact that she’s a relative unknown.

    Second, there’s the fact that she’s a Republican from Alaska and may have an ethics issue of her own. Although I would assume/hope that the McCain camp has fully vetted that issue.

    So, yea, it’s a risk and it’s not what I thought McCain would do (I figured he’d play it safe and go with Romney) but sometimes a risk can be a smart move and this may be one of those times.

    This much is true — it’s going to be hard for Joe Biden to be an attack dog against Sarah Palin without looking like a prig. George H.W. Bush had the same problem with Gerry Ferraro in 1984.

    The biggest difference between Palin and Ferraro, though, is that Palin actually has a realistic chance of becoming Vice-President of the United States.

  2. I’ve been a huge fan of Palin as VP for a while so I think this is an awesome pick! She’s an independent reformer; she knows energy policy; she’s got exec experience; and she’s a she. I’ve seldom been so proud to be a Republican as I now am. We can make history too!

    Besides all that she’s just a real neat lady who just gave birth in office to a boy with Down Syndrome. Got guts and conscience. You’ll love her.

  3. She’s absolutely amazing!
    But, where will this leave Alaska Republicans?

  4. If this is true, then the McCain ticket is DOA.

    As soon as the Press discovers how Palin abused her power as Governor to try to destroy her State-Trooper ex-brother-in-law, McCain can kiss the fifty percent of Men, those who have gone through a divorce, good-bye!

    I just removed the McCain stickers from the back of my cars.

  5. Astonishing reaction given that this “scandal” has in no way linked her to internal inquiries regarding her ex-brother-in-law’s employment.

  6. I love the Obama camp reaction. They have put out a presser saying McCain picked a former mayor of a town of 9,000.

    I suppose a Senator of a state of 853,476 is somehow more qualified.

  7. oh yea, and I’m excited about today! This campaign suddenly got fun!

  8. JTB, you know not what you speak of. Of course, that is really nothing new. You’ve added little to the intelligent discourse here and on other blogs.

    Go start your own blog that no one will read.

    For only the second or third time in the history of Virtucon, we are banishing a commenter for not rising to the intellectual level that we try to maintain here.

    Begone!

  9. Can I get an All Hail Riley?

    and they said “All Hail Riley!”

    You will note he posted the same garbage on BD. Nothing to do but troll all day apparently.

  10. I’m absolutely thrilled! I’ve read her background — and I’ve read extensively about the investigation. She sounds like she’s kicked out a lot of the trash in office — even turned in unethical practices on her fellow Republicans (now that’s a great citizen!). She believes in economic development but doesn’t want greedy oilmen to use that opening as a chance to practice unethical behavior.

    So what does this add up to? Likely someone who has made a lot of enemies by doing what she was elected to do.

    So when I read about investigations, I think a few things … are any of her enemies behind it? Would she likely leave herself wide open to claims of abuse of power knowing she was vulnerable to attacks of retribution? Does she sound like a dummy?

    And then I remember Travelgate (those other firings) and how that went nowhere — and that was legit!

  11. Limbaughs comment: “We have a Babe on the Ticket”

    Terrific. She was also a runner-up for Miss Alaska. Terrific.

    To even things out, we now have TWO candidates who smoked pot and inhaled. However, they didn’t like it. And so it goes.

  12. The great thing about Palin is she just as much woman as Hillary is – but without the bitchiness.

  13. I’m watching MSNBC’s Chris Matthews squirm over Palin’s selection.

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