Dems must be getting REALLY nervous right about now. Not only does it look like Barry Obama is blowing what not long ago appeared to be a sure thing, but the latest Gallup Poll for the generic congressional ballot brings more bad news their way.
Among Registered Voters, Dems lead 48-45. This is down from a consistent double-digit lead. Drill down to likely voters and the GOP leads 50-45. As Gallup sums things up:
If these numbers are sustained through Election Day — a big if — Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
As Gallup’s long-term “generic ballot” trend shows, the Democrats held a sizable lead on this measure from the time they won back control of Congress in the fall of 2006 through last month. If the current closer positioning of the parties holds, the structure of congressional preferences will be similar to most of the period from 1994 through 2005, when Republicans won and maintained control of Congress.
How sweet would it be to wake up the morning of Nov. 5th and hear the words President-elect John McCain, Vice President-elect Sarah Palin and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi?
Filed under: 2008 Elections, Congress, Democrats, National Politics, Polls, Republicans
[...] It’s real! Riley at VV saw it, [...]
The problem I see with this poll is precisely that it is a “generic” ballot.
We’ve seen this before going all the way back to the `80’s. People don’t like the job Congress is doing, they say they won’t vote for the party in control of Congress, and then they turn around and vote for their incumbent representative.
It happened four times during the Reagan Administration, and twice during GHWB’s Administration.
Actually, the generic poll is the most useful for Congress going back several elections now. Typically, the GOP outperforms what they get in this poll, too.
Gallup was the first to detect the GOP would lose their majorities in 2006. This ISN’T good news for the Dems.
Maybe with enough new Republican Representatives we could have Speaker CANTOR?
[...] of my fellow bloggers — D.J. McGuire at The Right-Wing Liberal, Riley at Virginia Virtucon, and Jason Pye — are pointing to a new Gallup poll which seems to suggest that control of [...]
Riley & Ron,
Possible ? Yes.
Likely ? Not at the moment.
[...] of my fellow bloggers — D.J. McGuire at The Right-Wing Liberal, Riley at Virginia Virtucon, and Jason Pye — are pointing to a new Gallup poll which seems to suggest that control of [...]
So you’re saying there’s a chance!
Seriously, if that number holds up, Republicans would in all likelihood take control. Using Gallup data going back a ways, there is a differential between what Republicans get on the generic ballot and how many seats they gain. Dems typically need to lead by five points to have a majority in the House.
It would be so sweet. The best part would be to see the likes of ranting kids and daily kos to go into complete meltdown mode. I think we would be able to officially put a fork into the democrat party
Even of we don’t win back either house it would be good to stop the bleeding and perhaps get some new blood in leadership . . . Cantor for minority leader or at least whip.