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    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

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    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

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    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

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    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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The Pollercoaster Ride Continues…

Posted on October 22, 2008 by Riley

Take your Dramamine, because this pollercoaster ride is about to give you more motion sickness…

New AP poll — Barry Obama 44, John McCain 43.

UPDATE:  New IBD poll Barry Obama 45.7, John McCain 42.

Most significantly about the IBD poll, over the past week:

McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He’s also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he’s gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.

Filed under: 2008 Elections, National Politics, Polls

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3 Responses

  1. Ghost of George Felix Allen's Career, on October 22nd, 2008 at 3:25 pm Said:

    IBD poll: John McCain enjoys a ten point lead among voters aged 18-24, while the AP poll shows Obama ahead by ten among registereds and one among likelies. Maybe you can force yourself to believe that.

    Poor, poor James. It will get better in a few years, these ass whippings are all cyclical.

  2. The Bulletproof Monk, on October 22nd, 2008 at 11:58 pm Said:

    Look George’s ghost…
    The IBD poll was as close as 4/10ths of one percent back in 2004. Maybe you can bring yourself to believe the accuracy of that….even if it goes against the grain of your wishes.

  3. Ghost of George Felix Allen's Career, on October 23rd, 2008 at 9:38 am Said:

    The IBD poll was certainly very close in 2004. And while it’s certainly possible that they’re right on this time around, being right once doesn’t make you the gold standard of pollsters, which is why the RCP, CNN, 538, and TPM aggregates of polls are useful.

    Put another way, do you think John McCain is up by ten among voters 18-24, Monk? Because that’s what the IBD poll requires you to believe.

    For that matter, look at the AP poll too. Do you think John McCain is doing nine points better among registered voters than likely voters? Do you think 45% of the electorate is going to be evangelical Christians (page 20)? Because that’s what the AP poll assumes.

    I don’t blame Riley for desperately cherry picking even dubious polls if they’re among the few that show John McCain with a fighting chance. But surely you don’t begrudge me the glee of watching him do so.

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