Virginia politics, policy and entertainment from the Greater Richmond-Washington Metro Area perspective.

Interesting tidbit on polls

From VV contributor Ignatius:
I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targetted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats. She said she thinks there is a 55% chance Obama holds on in Pennsylvania and a 75% chance McCain wins Virginia. She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa.
 
Anyway, her companies conclusion is that the election will come down to Colorado, New Hampshire and the Republican leaning district in Maine, which in her opinion might very well decide the Presidency (apparently the district in Nebraska that Obama thought he might be able to get is now off the table). She said she has very little doubt that the public polling is part of a “concerted voter suppression effort” by the MSM. She said IBD/TIPP was the only outfit doing public polling that was “worth a bucket of warm piss”.
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62 Responses to “Interesting tidbit on polls”

  1. Ghost of George Felix Allen's Career

    So then Ignatius’s friend shares IBD’s contention John McCain now enjoys a 74-22% edge among voters aged 18-24? Do you share that belief, James?

  2. jafapete

    Did this mystery pollster have anything to say about the hundreds of polls taken at state level in recent weeks that also show a serious rout in the making for McCain, as well as many of the Republicans at House & Senate level?

    PS, I think “virtucon” is so appropriate given that you guys don’t reside in the “real Virginia” according to your own campaign. Sorry if someone’s already pointed this out. But I’ve lived in Alexandria, VA, myself and miss it greatly.

  3. Eric Dondero

    You gotta look at past elections. Virtually all the polls at this point had Kerry ahead of Bush in 2004, Gore ahead of Bush in 2000, and even Reagan losing to Carter by 11 in late October of 1980.

    Funny, immediately after each election when the liberal media gets it totally wrong, nobody ever calls them on it.

  4. Scrapiron

    I don’t have much faith in the people of Va anymore. Anyone who would vote for Mark Warner after he stated (recorded statement0 that members of the NRA, Right to Life organizations, and “Christians’ are what is wrong with the country.

    If you go to vote for Hussein O, burn your bible before leaving home and close your eyes as you pass any church on the way.

  5. DL13

    That’s the game plan of the MSM polls, get the Republicans discouraged so they wont show up to vote. Just remember, Obama and the Democrats have yet to find a pocket they didn’t like…

  6. Minnie

    Also Zogby famously uses a 2004 voter id model which has evenly split dems and reps, so if she’s mocking them for a pro-democrat lean she’s an idiot.

  7. jojo

    There is an interesting article in Salon that analyzed black candidate votes in polls and on election day. The conclusion was the black candidate will get exactly what the final poll predicts and nearly all the undecideds go to the white candidate. Analyzed was Blackwell in OH, Steele in MD, Ford in TN and Patrick in MA. All got exactly what the polls predicted and all their challengers win or lose got more than the polls predicted. This is not Bradley Effect. This is undecideds all going to the white candidate.

  8. Globby

    I don’t buy this tidbit for two reasons: 1) FoxNews polls show an 8 pt lead for the Messiah and Fox is certainly not biased in favor of Obama; 2) Ignatius friend is a democrat and it would certainly be in his/her interest to spread false information that urges the McCain campaign to spend time in states where he is not likely to win and ignore states that need his attention. Sorry.

  9. mike

    Althought I would like to buy into this. I’ve heard several similar anonymous source stories just like this, and I think it’s your regular internet rumor. Democrats are outnumbering republicans in registered voter numbers in every swing state, and Obama has more money to get out the vote.

  10. John Fairplay

    “Kerry was NEVER ahead of Bush at ANY POINT after August”

    Uh, Scott, that’s an AVERAGE of ALL polls. There were plenty of pollsters who showed Kerry ahead after August.

  11. Poe Jld

    Thanks but I’ll trust the RCP average and Nate Silver’s regression analysis over some anonymous blogger.

  12. Ronny Mell

    Now John,, don’t go and confuse the uninformed with petty little things like the truth. Pointing out that RCP is an average of the major polls just destroys his argument. You know, libs can’t stand for that.

  13. Capitalist_Dave

    Everybody, remember the 2000 Gallup daily tracking poll. Gore was consistently behind Bush for weeks, leading up to Election Day. Then Bush coasted and Gore played to win. The result was…well….we all know!!

    We have lost our backbones this cycle. “Don’t wobble”. Close strong.

    http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/09/12/tracking.poll/index.html

    10/20: BUSH 50 GORE 40
    10/21: BUSH 51 GORE 40
    10/22: BUSH 50 GORE 41
    10/23: BUSH 46 GORE 44
    10/24: BUSH 45 GORE 46
    10/25: BUSH 48 GORE 43
    10/26: BUSH 49 GORE 42
    10/27: BUSH 52 GORE 39
    10/28: BUSH 49 GORE 42
    10/29: BUSH 49 GORE 42
    10/30: BUSH 47 GORE 44
    10/31: BUSH 47 GORE 44
    11/1: BUSH 48 GORE 43
    11/2: BUSH 47 GORE 43
    11/3: BUSH 48 GORE 42
    11/4: BUSH 47 GORE 43
    11/5: BUSH 48 GORE 43

  14. Lily

    I live in Colorado and have already voted – for Palin (and that guy she’s running with).

  15. Roundup For 10/27/08 | Bearing Drift :: Virginia Politics and Podcasts

    [...] Virginia Virtucon: Interesting Tidbit On Polls – She absolutely laughed at the public polls showing Obama leading Virginia–and pointed out that all of those polls rely on Dem turnout being +4 and as much as +7, when in 2006, Republicans actually had the advantage by +3. She also pointed out that the numbers for Obama in SWVA look absolutely awful and that McCain is running 10 points better then Allen did in NoVa. [...]

  16. Sgt. York

    I was a campaign manager in Nebraska’s second district: It is off the table for Obama. I won’t tell you who, but several different local internal polls show Obama behind by around 13 in Omaha.

  17. CK

    Obama’s Redistribution of Wealth/Income video:

    Obama says Constitution is “Deeply Flawed”:

    Here is the most liberal Senator in Congress, alongside the third most-liberal Joe Biden, espousing a socialist viewpoint on redistributing income of workers to folks not paying any income tax (i.e., 50% of the 95% of folks “not rich”, according to Obama’s views); also known as “welfare”.

    Obama is trying to buy the presidency – he is building a coalition of people who don’t pay taxes that want something for free – and he characterizes this as some form of social and economic “justice”; i.e., reparations.

    Obama is a hardened ideologue. He’s not interested in playing around the edges. He seeks “fundamental change,” i.e., to remake society. This is the change he has in mind.

    Is the allure of a charismatic demagogue so strong that the usually sober American people are willing to risk an Obama presidency? And democrats are able to control both houses of Congress – including a potential filibuster-proof majority…

    It is time for revolution – vote for America, vote for McCain/Palin!!!

  18. Christina Turley

    I have to agree with ck
    WAKE UP AMERICA WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO VOTE FOR A PERSON WHO REFUSES TO TELL THE TRUTH AS TO HIS BIRTH RIGHT,AND ALSO WENT TO SCHOOL IN JAKATA IN CASE Y OU FORGOT THATS IS THE SAME SCHOOL THAT THE 9/11 TERRORIST TRAINED.
    DO YOU REALLY WANT TO SEE A MAN IN THERE THAT IS GOING TO SELL AMERICA TO THE PEOPLE WHO HATE CHRISTIANS.
    SO WHEN YOU DONT HAVE THE RIGHTS YOU HAVE NOW TAKEN AWAY FROM YOU.AND YOU HAVE TO CLOSE YOUR EYES WHEN YOU PASS A CHURCH,I HOPE YOU REMEMBER WHO DID THIS.
    NO ONE PRESIDENT CAN PLEASE US ALL,BUT GOD BLESS AMERICA.GOOD LUCK JOHN AND SARAH

  19. dave

    One thing’s for sure… on election night in ’76, the polls showed Carter ahead by 5%.

    It was about the same for Kerry in ’04. Gore had a good lead in 2000. The polls NEVER predicted the ’84 rout, the 49 state rout of Reagan over Mondale.

    The polls are, sadly, wrong a LOT, and NEVER in favor of republicans. They ALWAYS overstate the Dem lead.

    D3 in the Battleground poll asks if you are 1 very conservative, 2 somewhat conservative, 3 moderate, 4 somewhat liberal or 5 very liberal.

    The first two got 59%. The last two got 37%. Moderate? 2%.

    This nation certainly is not 39% lib, 33% conservative and the rest moderate. Not if you ask it based on ideology rather than party affiliation. This is a largely conservative nation. PERIOD.

  20. GlennO

    The Dem Base is not supporting BHO, according to AP Polls. He is getting just 80% there and needs over 94% to win PLUS Independents.

    IBD/TIPP have called the elections, historically, the most accurately in the last 3 cycles. The rest… punt.

  21. GlennO

    Source: http://www.collinsreport.net:

    If the AP is correct, Barack Obama’s base problem is very serious

    October 24th, 2008
    By Kevin “Coach” Collins

    A recent AP poll screamed trouble for Barack Obama.

    It reported his base support to be just 80%. If this is accurate, and that is a very big IF, he can not win.

    Last June when former Hillary Clinton supporters were asked, 58% supported Obama. But the same survey also showed 21% voting for John McCain. A follow-up survey of the very same people showed support for McCain had grown to 28% while remaining stagnant at 58% for Obama. The undecideds seem to be moving to McCain.

    These numbers have been swept under the rug by the media, but they are still very important.

    During the Democratic primaries, exit polls showed a consistent core of 20% that would not be voting for Obama in the general election.

    Whether Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos can be blamed for this distressing news for Obama can be debated, but it doesn’t completely explain away the numbers in the face of subsequent polls showing the same results.

    If Obama is getting just 80% of Democrat support he is in trouble. A base support this low can not be overcome and will not get Obama elected. Almost all polls of rank and file Democrats have shown Obama’s base support in the eighties and mid seventies.

    In 2000 Al Gore got 92% and lost. In 2004 John Kerry got 89% and lost by a clear margin.

    There would have to be a huge difference in party identification to pull Obama through with just 80% of his base. The reported split among Independents doesn’t help either.

    A September AP poll of Democratic and Independent likely voters showed that 1/3 hold negative views of Blacks. The same surveyed showed that 40% of all Americans have negative views toward Blacks. Is it that hard to believe the 80% support level?

    The base support numbers tell the story. If they are real, this will be a tough night for the Democrat’s candidate. Additional fresh information reveals that the TIPPs poll has Obama with an 86 percent base support, but the 11.6% undecided number makes that suspect.

  22. mamaneeds2rant

    I’ve suspected all along they are trying to discourage the McCain supporters to give up and not bother voting. The media releases the polls and there should be no doubt who they want to win. Every McCain supporter needs to vote on Nov. 3–no matter what crap the media is feeding us.

  23. Blankman

    People are starting to ask questions about Obama. It may be too late but his 2001 radio interview on redistribution of wealth has finally surfaced as well as his statement that the Constitution is deeply flawed.

    If you’re going to have a poll done be sure to make up your mind what you want the answer to be:

    “Opinion polls are not designed to measure public opinion, they’re designed to shape it.” Peter Hitchens

  24. SergeiRostov

    dave, on October 27th, 2008 at 5:09 pm Said:
    D3 in the Battleground poll asks if you are 1 very conservative, 2 somewhat conservative, 3 moderate, 4 somewhat liberal or 5 very liberal.

    The first two got 59%. The last two got 37%. Moderate? 2%.

    This nation certainly is not 39% lib, 33% conservative and the rest moderate. Not if you ask it based on ideology rather than party affiliation. This is a largely conservative nation. PERIOD.

    That ratio you give is the Party ID split, and is probably the right one for this year.
    Further, the US is actually quite LIBERAL, as 57% want abortion legal in nearly all cases, 80% affirmative action, 83% tougher environmental laws, over 80% universal health care, well over 60% tougher gun laws, nearly 70% full gay rights, and nearly 60% are in favor of labor unions.

  25. Political Jules

    Ok for everyone looking for a breath of fresh air, here is a fun and entertaining video called, “The GOP’s Brave New World” I promise it will have you dancing in your living room. There is much to smile about at the end. Please get it out to everyone this last week of the election. It will lift everyone’s spirits in a time we so desparately need it.

  26. Riley

    scott h. — something to consider. The 2008 RCP avg. includes about twice the number of polls that the 2004 avg. did and many of these newer polls have crummy methodology if you look at the internals.

    For 2012, RCP is going to have to be more selective in which polls they include and judge each poll based upon the internals before they throw it in the mix.

  27. jamal jk

    This is interesting. Karl Rove a few days ago mentioned on TV the 55% in PA and 75% in VA numbers. I believe his WSJ articles also mentioned the same numbers.

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