Seems that the WashPo has finally jumped onto the meme of the final week of the presidential campaign — could the polls be wrong?
Still, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat winning by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.
. . .
Other experts are less uncertain. Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the Center for American Progress and the Century Foundation, said averaging the daily polls points to “pretty much the same thing — that the race is pretty stable and that Obama has a stable lead. Typically, when you are this far ahead at this point, it’s hard to lose.”
“It is very unlikely that we are going to get surprised by a last-minute movement,” said John R. Petrocik, chairman of the political science department at the University of Missouri. “Obama has been running six to eight points ahead for the better part of two weeks, and it’s hard to imagine that turning around.”
Do any of these people even look at recent history or do they truly only have the attention span of a gnat?
Let’s go over this again. The year is 2000. Here are the CNN daily tracking polls.
10/29: BUSH 49 GORE 42
10/30: BUSH 47 GORE 44
10/31: BUSH 47 GORE 44
11/1: BUSH 48 GORE 43
11/2: BUSH 47 GORE 43
11/3: BUSH 48 GORE 42
11/4: BUSH 47 GORE 43
11/5: BUSH 48 GORE 43
According to Messrs. Teixeira and Petrocik, Bush should have easily won the popular vote in 2000, yet as we all now know, Gore won the popular vote while Bush won the Electoral College. In 2004, the 2 p.m. exit polls showed John Kerry winning by 6 points, yet he lost by 3. Even Ronald Reagan was trailing Jimmy Carter heading into the final week of the 1980 election (albeit they held their one and only debate just a week before Election Day.)
So, the question should not be “could the polls be wrong?” rather it should be, “just how wrong will the polls be?” Right now I’d put this at about a 3 or 4 point race with Obama leading — probably 48 to 44 or 45 with about 6 or 7 percent undecided. If Obama hasn’t closed the deal with them yet, he most likely will not be able to and will see the vast majority of those undecideds swing to the safe choice of McCain. In the end, McCain will win this race with 50 or 51 percent to Obama’s 48 or 48.
Filed under: "Journalists", 2008 Elections, Media, National Politics, Polls
