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    "That some should be rich, shows that others may become rich, and, hence, is just encouragement to industry and enterprise."

    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864


    "The supply-side claim is not a claim. It is empirically true and historically convincing that with lower rates of taxation on labor and capital, the factors of production, you'll get a bigger economy."

    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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The Virginia Strategy

Republicans have an opportunity in 2009 to start their comeback and it begins in Virginia next year with its three statewide races. Here are a few suggestions on how Republicans can regain their winning ways:

1. Don’t just spout principles, offer solutions –

Republicans need to be the party of solutions and base those solutions upon their guiding principles of more individual freedom and less government intrusion. They need to, as Congressman Eric Cantor recently put it, be relevant to the lives of voters. Our party and its candidates can’t simply say that they’re for lower taxes and less government and leave it at that. They need to connect the dots and show how solutions based upon Republican principles can positively impact people with regard to getting them out of traffic, making their neighborhoods safe, making sure that they can find a good job and their kids can attend quality schools.

2. Take the message EVERYWHERE –

As crazy as DNC Chairman Howard Dean can seem, he was exactly right to concoct his “50 State Strategy” where Democrats would organize in and compete for every state. Our message can’t be confined to the suburbs, exurbs and rural areas. It needs to be spread everywhere.

The Republican Party should work to develop, based upon guiding principles, three distinct agendas — urban, suburban and rural. If they use basic conservative Republican principles to craft solutions to issues facing each of these geographic areas, they can put forward a compelling message to each target audience without coming into conflict with themselves.

Imagine a “Republican Urban Agenda” that applies commonsense conservative principles to issues such as transportation, education, public safety, jobs, etc. in a manner such as was done by former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Imagine a “Republican Suburban Agenda” that not only offers separate yet compatible takes on transportation and education from that which is contained in the urban agenda based upon different circumstances, but also addresses such issues as growth and the environment. Or a “Republican Rural Agenda” that deals with education as well as economic development and conservation.

Naturally, some issues such as taxes may not have a specific regional focus, so they can be part of the overall agenda or incorporated wholecloth into each. But if the GOP were to put out such separate agendas, it would send a strong signal that they are no longer confining themselves to certain geographic areas in order to achieve victory.

3. Work to bring natural allies into the coalition –

By no means is this focus on solutions to every day issues meant to suggest that the party jettison social issues. Those things which represent the moral fabric of the party should be defended. In fact, as the Republican Party and its candidates try to reach into minority communities, they should make these issues a part of that outreach. The vast majority of African-Americans and Hispanics hold conservative views on social issues and Republicans need to connect with them on that level as a bridge to reaching them on a variety of other issues.

Even then, Republicans should offer constructive solutions with regard to social issues. We need to work to decrease the number of abortions by changing people’s minds and hearts without getting in people’s faces. We must increase the respect for marriage without appearing to be meanspirited. We can achieve our goals on social issues without compromising our principles and do so in such a manner that grows our party rather than narrowing it.

4. Organize and STAY organized –

For too long, even in Virginia where we have elections that matter every single year, Republicans have been content to essentially hibernate politically after Election Day. Come January, it is a time for governing and all that. No more. Republicans need to ID their voters, engage them, get their contact information (especially their email addresses) and bring them into the political culture. Even if these voters don’t join their local county Republican committees, find some way in which you can maintain relationships with them. That is where technology such as Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace, YouTube, Twitter, Skype videoconferencing, and blogs comes in to play. Give them a stake in the continuing political process.  Keep them involved!

Furthermore, right now we should be out there canvassing the parking lots at malls and grocery stores leaving bumperstickers for our 2009 statewide candidates Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling under the windshield wipers of every single car that we find that still has a McCain sticker on it!  While the other side gloats and continues to go around with their Obama stickers on, our side needs to move forward and get ahead.

5. Raise money. LOTS of it –

This is a “No duh!” suggestion, but it deserves a “Yes, duh!” response. Every contact made by a candidate or party leader should at least include a way that individuals can donate money to his or her campaign or the party. This doesn’t mean turning every communication into a fundraising letter. But at the very least place a widget or button on your website or in your email that can easily direct people to where they can make an online contribution.  (We’ve got a few of them in the left column of this website.  Please be sure to visit them and give generously to Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli.)

Former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe who is exploring a run for VA Gov. next year said recently that his goal is to raise $75 million for the race. Granted, he’ll have to spend quite a bit to get through the primary in June, but even then he’d likely have more cash for the general election than any other candidate in Virginia history if he reaches that goal.

In 2009, Virginia Republicans need to raise as much money as they can from every legal source that they can regardless of whether it is from inside the Commonwealth or not. Other than New Jersey, there won’t be many significant elections next year. Use that to your advantage to raise as much as you can from across the country. Proclaim Virginia to be the bellweather in 2009 that it was in 1993.

As for 2012, no serious Republican presidential candidate should accept either federal matching funds for the primary season or public financing for the general election.

6. Create a brand and market the heck out of it –

Much has been made about how the Obama campaign successfully used proven marketing strategies to sell his candidacy. Recognizable logo. Check. Slogan. Check. Meanwhile Republicans lost their market share by essentially allowing their brand to become “New Coke” with Bush 43’s whole “compassionate conservatism” thing as well as the spending binge that congressional Republicans went on. The same thing happened with Bush 41 and his “kinder, gentler nation” approach. (And I can’t even tell you why Bob Dole or John McCain were running other than it was their turn and they were war heroes.)

Does the party or Republican candidates have to go to the extent of getting a graphic designer to come up with a cool logo and a focus group to test new slogans? Maybe, maybe not. But whatever they decide to do, they need to become ubiquitous. Just be everywhere. Advertise online. Get on websites such as the Drudge Report (you can buy a regional ad that will only display in Virginia), every local newspaper that covers the state, blogs, anywhere that Virginia voters may see you. Post YouTube videos. With more and more people using Tivo / DVRs and fastforwarding through commercials when they watch TV, voters are more likely to watch a campaign commercial that is posted on YouTube and forwarded to them with a link to it by a friend or a campaign.

Most importantly, when voters see or hear something that makes them think of the GOP brand, it MUST tie back in with the whole concept of offering positive solutions relevant to their lives.  Otherwise, like New Coke, it will continue to leave a bad taste in your mouth.

7 Responses

  1. >6. Create a brand and market the heck out of it –

    Dudes, we _have_ a brand, and her name is “The Consitution”.
    We need to re-invigorate the patient, not wrap her in in more creative marketing bandages, in the fashion of the mummy.
    You want social services that are not the crap-tastic ponzi schemes of the last 50-ish years? Tell me how we’re going to get the Fed out of the social service sector.
    Let the Contract with America be more than a feckless pile of ’stuff’.

  2. >4. Organize and STAY organized –

    I’ve often seen where local committees get well organized, and then there is a new Chairman, and things fall apart. There are big time continuity problems at the local level.

  3. C Smith, I agree with you re: The Constitution and that is at the basis of the conservative principles that we should have guide us on policy. Unlike others, I’m not saying we have to rebrand. If anything, as Coca Cola did, we have to get away from New Coke and back to the original formula.

    If you want to get the gov’t out of areas that it doesn’t belong, what needs to be done is to earn respect for the 10th Amendment.

  4. LH, if people can get organized via grassroots and new technologies, then it shouldn’t fall apart when a new chairman comes in. And if the new chairman fails, there is a cadre of grassroots from which a new leader can emerge. Of course, that might make some leaders nervous. And it should!

  5. good stuff, but about #4

    Once they get to local committees, there’s nothing there for them to do.

    The left watches bills in Congress and bills in the General Assembly, launches petition drives, and creates websites with email your legislator on them.

    We don’t ask Republicans to do anything until campaign season, and often times those in power don’t exactly encourage it.

  6. Exactly, Brian. We need to find ways to keep Republicans engaged. Perhaps not the same way the Dems do, but something.

  7. Excellent, Riley! I couldn’t agree more on the quality of candidates. Repub candidates have not only disappointed me, but they have left me with a sense of apathy that I know impacts so many conservatives. The age and philosophy of candidates is KEY for keeping young conservatives like me involved in the process. As all rock stars know and old war hero politicians are beginning to understand, it IS better to burn out than to fade away.

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