Bob McDonnell – the luckiest Virginian?

Well, this is my first foray as a VV blogger.  I can’t tell you how delighted and grateful I am.  Greetings from the “border region” of northern Virginia (otherwise known as the northeastern part of Spotsylvania County)!

Oddly enough, although the spotlight will be on the Republicans this weekend (I myself will be in Richmond for the convention tomorrow morn), I wonder how many people have noticed the trap the Democrats have set for themselves over the last few weeks.

The original front-runner, Brian Moran (hard to remember, but he was the front-runner waaaaaay back when) had enough trouble with Terry McAuliffe poaching on his regional base.  When brother Jim decided to make himself a lightning rod on enemy combatant prisoners, things went downhill pretty fast.  Now Moran is (if he’s lucky) a distant second in polling, and the only people enthusiastic about his candidacy are gun owners out to smite Creigh Deeds (more on him later).  Given how badly Operation Chaos flopped in Virginia last year, Moran can’t be happy to be the beneficiary of the 2009 version – and neither will large chunks of the Democrats’ base.  The best person to solve that problem (Big Brother Jim) is also the one person more likely to ”redden” Virginia voters than a blazing July sun.

It seemed for a while that Virginia Democrats had avoided that fate thanks to T-Mac.  Despite the obvious problems that come with a parachuted candidacy, T-Mac had a number of advantages: no connection to the various Richmond battles, no record of supporting tax increases (partially blunted with his vocal support of the Warner tax hike), and the oceans of money he could bring to the table.  Unfortunately, Virginia Democrats are beginning to figure out what their fellows in the other 49 states learned in the early part of the decade: Terry McAuliffe’s money comes with one drawback – Terry McAuliffe.  The left wing of the party is growing increasingly up in arms at the notion of a McAuliffe nomination, while Democrats in Virginia are beginning to feel the usual my-guy’s-in-the-White-House-so-is-Richmond-really-that-important complacency (see the Democrats in 1997, 1993, and 1977, or the GOP in 2005, 2001, 1989, 1985, and 1981).

Oddly enough, the fellow who seemed the also-ran for most of the primary campaign is slowly coming into the role of white-knight (or is it blue knight?): Creigh Deeds.  On the surface, Deeds is the guy to whom the Dems should have looked in the first place – from the western part of the state (which, unless John Brownlee pulls the upset, would have no other presence on either ticket this fall), with a reputation as a social moderate, and with the experience of coming within a whisker of beating McDonnell in 2005.  He seems the perfect choice, and will be touted as such if he can actually catch T-Mac by June 9.

Alas, for the Dems, the 2009 version of Creigh Deeds is a pale imitation of the 2005 near-winner.  Back then, Deeds was just one of a slew of Warner Democrats with one popular (and misunderstood) tax increase on their records.  Since then, Deeds has established himself as one of the most tax-hike-friendly politicians in Richmond.  Even Moran -well-earned lefty reputation notwithstanding – has voted for fewer tax increases than Deeds has.

Moreover, Deeds in 2005 was considered the most gun-friendly AG candidate in either party (which was why the National Rifle Association endorsed him over McDonnell that year).  This time, he is not even the favorite of gun owners in his own primary.

So . . . all three Democrats running for Governor will face a general election with large chunks of the Warner or Kaine coalitions (they’re not the same, but that’s for another post) wanting nothing to do with them.

Meanwhile, McDonnell has managed to go under the radar for months.  The only move against him has been the “stimulus” adds by the Common Nonsense folks.  To give an idea of how “effective” they are, when Mrs. Liberal saw the ads, her first reaction was to vent about the slew of conditions that came with the rejected stimulus money in the first place.

Given all of that, Bob McDonnell is certainly in the running for the luckiest Virginian alive.