The Democrats have made their choice – and will come to regret it

So Creigh Deeds gets another shot at Bob McDonnell after all.  It will likely go down as one the most memorable primary upsets in Virginia history – although having two Northern Virginians split that region’s vote would have made Deeds a formidable candidate even before he earned the Washington Post‘s endorsement.  Still, Deeds whopping victory surprised nearly everyone (ahem, emphasis on nearly), and he may even get a post-primary boost in the polls (although that’s far from certain given that so few people voted in this primary).

Democrats are gleeful in large part because they remember how close Deeds came to defeating McDonnell in the 2005 Attorney General race.  Normally, yours truly tries to steer Republicans clear of unwarranted optimism, but today it’s the Democrats who will need to prepare themselves for some serious dissapointment.  Here’s why:

Even in 2005, Deeds lost: McDonnell had to fight terrible headwinds – in particular the Kilgore drag at the top of the ticket, an unpopular president in his own party, and the usual boost the party outside of the White House gets in Virginia.  In fact, from 1977 to 2001, the party outside of the White House always won the Governor’s race and one of the two downticket races.  McDonnell and Bill Bolling broke that trend in 2005, and McD was facing a Democrat (Deeds) who was backed by the usually GOP-friendly National Rifle Association.

Since then, Deeds has shifted left substantially: In 2005, Deeds was a gun-rights Democrat who supported the Mark Warner tax increase of 2004, no worse than any Democrat not named Johnny Joannou.  Since then, as Mason Conservative noted, Creigh Deeds has become one of the most prolific tax hikers in Richmond.  His nomination even neutralized Bob McDonnell’s greatest weakness – HB3202.  Deeds not only voted for the version McDonnell defended in court (the Kaine version), but he also voted for the Chichester version (a statewide gas tax hike) earlier.  Hardly anyone could manage to make McDonnell look good by comparison on the 3202 debacle, but Creigh Deeds managed to pull it off.  The State Senator then proceeded to support SB6009 – which had increases in the sales tax, gas tax, and auto tax, plus regional tax increases.  Had the Democrats nominated Terry McAuliffe, McDonnell might have been vulnerable on HB3202; with Deeds, McD might as well be iron-plated.

While Deeds has become a complete disaster for the taxpayer, he hasn’t exactly endeared himself to Virginia independents and Republicans on other issues either (see Tim Watson and the Virginia Shooting Sports Association).

In short, Creigh Deeds is a pale imitation of the guy who still lost to Bob McDonnell despite tremendous statewide advantages for the Dems that no longer exist – and he’s supposed to reverse the 2005 outcome?

I don’t think so.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal