Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.
1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)
2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)
3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)
3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)
5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)
6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)
7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)
8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)
9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)
10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)
11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)
Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:
MOST ACCURATE:
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
POLL REVEALED TO BE FRAUDULENT AND REPUDIATED BY DAILYKOS:
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
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(If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)
POLLS THAT WERE WORSE THAN A FRAUDULENT POLL:
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweak (10/22-23)
Locate, close with and destroy the enemy!
What is telling in the PPP poll is that the percentage of likely Democratic voters is dropping (was the poll conducted before or after Obama’s people tried to preemptively spin a loss to their advantage). This has the potential of tipping close H of D races towards the GOP and the end of the night. Here’s hoping that these numbers ring true next week.
Well, with one week to go, I guess there is still a chance for something to go wrong. Does the post have one more attempt left? According to Wesely Pruden, they do.
I love waking up to these numbers, makes my day better.
and there’s a new website out on Deeds. http://www.discoverdeeds.com
I think any “surprise” will occur at the LG level. It’s completely irrational, but the GOP just doesn’t have a good track record at that office. Farris lost in 93 when the other GOPers won. Hager was well below the ticket average in 97. Katzen lost in 01. Bolling nearly lost to a very weak opponent in 05. I also sense that Bolling will probably underperform the ticket in 09, but I think it’s a stretch to think he’ll lose. The biggest surprise has already occurred…..Steve Shannon has followed in the path of Bill Dolan and put together an awful campaign. Whatever your thoughts, Cuccinelli takes strong stands which should polarize the electorate to some degree. However, I’ve got a feeling that Shannon may underperform Deeds. He’s completely punted away a money advantage and the advantage of having a polarizing opponent. He’s also been nowhere to be found in a lot of the Commonwealth. A horrible campaign in all respects…….
[...] Survey USA, has McDonnell +17%, Bolling +14% and Cuccinelli +16%, more on this can be found at Virginia Virtucon. Not Larry Sabato also has added fuel to the fire with a twit eariler that says, Creigh [...]
Tri-Cities,
That might be the case. But, given all of the attention the top of the ticket is getting I’d be surprised if that were to happen.
Tri-Cities,
I agree that LG is the only chance (however small) of a Dem upset. There really isn’t much of a race to speak of when it comes to these three.