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    "That some should be rich, shows that others may become rich, and, hence, is just encouragement to industry and enterprise."

    -- President Abraham Lincoln - 1864


    "The supply-side claim is not a claim. It is empirically true and historically convincing that with lower rates of taxation on labor and capital, the factors of production, you'll get a bigger economy."

    -- U.S. Rep. Jack Kemp



  • Special Election – Jan 12, 2010

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    In a fight between Jim Webb and Ollie North, who would win? Oh, that's right, we already know the answer to that question.



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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

    16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

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Can Obama Be Blamed?

If today does turn out to be a successful day for Republicans (no jinx), how much of it can be blamed on President Obama?  Democrats are so worried about it that they are including poll questions asking if voters are swayed by the President.

In their “Behind the Numbers” blog, Washington Post suggests the following:

Seven in 10 in the new poll say Obama is not a factor in their choice. And among those who say they’ll take him into account, 14 percent say their vote will be to express support for Obama, 15 percent to indicate opposition to him.

Great.  They account for the split of Virginian’s who support Obama, largely Democrats.  And they also account for the Republicans who don’t support him.  Well done, we knew Virginian’s were split into Republicans and Democrats.

They do try and address what I feel will be the biggest failing of Obama: turnout.  If the tidal wave that was his campaign carried over into this year the entire Republican ticket would be in trouble.  But the Democrats seem complacent and Obama has done very little campaigning for Creigh Deeds.  They do not have the albatross that is George W. Bush to hang around the neck of the Republican Party.  It actually kind of reminds me of the problems that the Whig Party had after Andrew Jackson left the Presidency.  The Whigs had established the party based on an undying hatred for Andrew Jackson, and once he was gone, the party fumbled around for issues.

Maybe it’s not a perfect analogy, but the point remains:  Because Barack Obama is the leader of the Democratic Party, shouldn’t he be held culpable should Democrats decide not to vote?

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