By now the parallels are familiar to most of you.
In both 1993 and 2009, Republicans were seeking to regain their footing and their identity, after having suffered defeat the year before to a charismatic liberal who won the presidential election after deceptively campaigning as a “centrist.” In both years Republicans swept to power in historic statewide elections in Virginia and New jersey, at least in part because of voter backlash toward Democrats for decidely non-centrist policies (e.g., in 1993 it was tax hikes and HillaryCare; in 2009 it was ObamaCare, and a host of other issues, shoddy exit polling notwithstanding).
In 1993, the mood of the country was one of anger and discontent at the rising tax burden, the growth of government, and the corruption that inevitably accompanies it. In 2009, the mood is the same, but orders of magnitude greater in intensity. In the 1994 mid-term elections, one year after the stunning off-year victories, the House Minority Whip led a revolution that ushered in the first GOP majority in the House of Representatives in 40 years.
The question now, of course, is whether the current House Minority Whip, Virginia’s own Eric Cantor, and his colleagues can keep the parallels alive by giving a similar performance in 2010. A pair of new polls by Gallup and Rasmussen suggest that just might be about to happen. Rasmussen indicates Republicans lead Democrats on a generic congressional ballot by 6 points, with an astounding lead among independents of 23 points. Gallup’s latest also has Republicans in the lead for 2010 with a similar lead among independents, noting that since 1950 most such readings for Republicans have come in their banner Congressional election years of 2002 and, of course, 1994.
Since last Tuesday just after the polls closed the Democrats have been vigorously denying that the recent election had anything at all to do with Obama and/or Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. They have dismissed tea party protesters and other dissenters with derisive slurs and insults, and continue to insist that their radical policies are the type of hope and change the country wants. This attitude gives me hope that they won’t change, at least between now and next November, and that Obama will continue to be one of the best recruiting tools the GOP has had in decades.
We can’t let the momentum from last week die. Activists from around Virginia and elsewhere will be preoccupied for a while with primary contests for House races, but let’s not lose sight of the ultimate prize that awaits a resurgent conservative, small-government, fiscally responsible Republican Party. I know Congressman Cantor agrees, which is why, as the focus shifts to House races, his keynote address at the Annual RPV Don Huffman Advance has the potential to be historic in nature. Don’t miss it. I for one am looking forward to being at ground zero for the next revolution.
UPDATE: Michael Barone, the walking encyclopedia of American politics, opines on more polling data suggesting a Republican wave in 2010, here.
Filed under: 2010 Elections, Democrats, Eric Cantor, Virginia Politics
More like 1984, since both parties have created “protected classes” so that we now have some Americans considered, “more equal” than others.
The historical parallels have some similarity. However, in this case the rebellion is much more grassroots. Incumbent Republicans also risk being tossed out on their ears.
Why do we need to see some Republicans as well as Democrats replaced? What Conservative is not also sick and tired of the Republicans who will not obey the Constitution? Regardless of his or her party affiliation, when an elected official reneges on his oath of office, we need to boot the liar out of office.
The Constitution could in fact be the key to 2010. If people start reading Constitution and show they expect their elected officials to read and obey, that will make 2010 earth shaking. To protect our rights, we need a Constitution and public officials who will obey it. To save the United States as the Land of the Free, we the People must reaffirm our Constitution as the covenant that holds our people together as one People.
Is Cantor up to it?
It’s interesting that the Democrats are trying to pretend that their defeats in New Jersey and Virginia are meaningless. As I recall, in 2005, we Republicans were trying to convince ourselves that Paul Hackett’s near-win in Ohio 2nd’s special election was meaningless. We all remember what happened one year later! I’m not saying history will repeat itself in 2010, but the parties shouldn’t be so quick to ignore the message voters send during off-year elections.