My prediction on the British and Ulster election

In less than two hours, polls will open across Great Britain and Northern Ireland.  It is the closest election since 1992.

That year (1992). I was the only person (I think) who predicted a Conservative majority, and in fact, the Tories’ MP number was one seat outside my range (I predicted between 331 and 335; they won 336).

I’ve been a little sketchy on UK elections since then (and here in the US, I’ve been absolutely awful), but that’s never stopped me before, so here goes.

From what I can see, the Conservatives once again have the momentum – and since UK polls (much like Canada’s) don’t include undecided voters, that can lead to wild swings, especially in an election like this.

Therefore, I suspect the Tories will do better than where the pollsters have them (which in itself is not bad and getting better).

Well, onto the numbers:

• Conservative: 331-335 (majority of 12 to 20), with one Independent Unionist in Ulster supporting them
  
• Labor: 185-190
• Liberal Democrats: 95-100
• Democratic Unionist Party (Ulster/Northern Ireland): 9-10
• Scottish National Party: 6-7
• Sinn Fein (NI – nationalist): 5-6
• Plaid Cymru (Welsh nationalists): 3-4
• Social Democratic Labor Party (NI – nationalist): 2-3
• United Kingdom Independence Party: 1 (Nigel Farage defeats the Speaker)

We’ll see how far off I am . . .

Cross-posted to RWL

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