New polls have just been conducted in Virginia’s four competitive congressional races by ccAdvertising. Here are the toplines:
VA-2: Scott Rigell 48.61% / Glenn Nye 34.48% / Undecided 16.91%
VA-5: Robert Hurt 51.11% / Tom Perriello 34.74% / Undecided 14.15%
VA-9: Rick Boucher 42.64% / Morgan Griffith 39.72% / Undecided 17.64%
VA-11: Keith Fimian 42.19% / Gerry Connolly 36.68% / Undecided 21.13%
I would have liked to have seen how these races would shake out with leaners included. I’d anticipate Nye, Perriello and Connolly each in the low to mid 40s with Rigell in the low 50s, Hurt in the high 50s and Fimian coming close to cracking the 50 percent mark. In the Fighting 9th, I’d think that slightly more of the undecideds would break for Griffith as they traditionally go towards the challengers, so that race is probably about dead even when leaners are included.
The surveys do include some useful issue material regarding views of the Tea Party, President Obama, Obamacare, taxes, pro-life, traditional marriage and the Second Amendment. They also indicate they surveyed both landline and mobile phones, so that is not a factor that would detract from these results.
Filed under: 2010 Elections, Keith Fimian, Morgan Griffith, Robert Hurt, Scott Rigell
I heard last night from a reliable source that Fimian is doing fine, right around the 50% mark. Connolly has done the most recent internal polling and won’t release the results. What does that tell us? Keith has an excellent chance of beating Connolly.
LL, if neither campaign is publicly releasing their internal polling, that doesn’t tell us a whole lot of anything.
Interesting results, and a bit more positive than I would have expected. I’d love to find out more about this poll.
Right…..who did the 42-36 poll in the Fimian-Connolly race? What a disaster that would be…..is Fimian still fighting with his partners??
I bet Griffith wished this poll was true. People hire this company to convince voters to vote for them. The polls are accomplish by a robot. This company forgot that they are three people running in VA-9 race. Undecided is not doing bad in this race. This company probably works out of their basement.
Nice try to discredit them, James, but they have a long history and a sizable private client list of companies. Furthermore, these polls do not appear to have been commissioned by the campaigns, but rather by the business industry. On top of that, when you compare the automated polls to polls conducted by live interviewers, the automated have proven to be more accurate in recent election cycles. In the 2009 VA GOV race, Survey USA (automated) got it closest to the actual result. In the 2008 PRES race, Rasmussen (automated) tied for the top spot. Check out the bottom of our left-hand column for full results. Finally, another poll from VA-2 just came out and that had it Rigell 45, Nye 40 so the 49-35 (rounded up) result in this poll isn’t that different (and I’d attribute the difference to being a larger swath of undecideds.)
a candidate may not release their internals for a host of reasons. While a candidate’s internals may track the bottom line percentage, the poll also tracks responses to ads, debates & news affecting that race. The candidate is looking at what is moving the numbers, not only the numbers themselves.
all that said, I think Robert Hurt is certainly ahead in the 5th. Perriello is one & done.
The Fimian supporters should not get over confident. Remember this poll?Fimian got creamed later!!!!!!!
Fimian Takes the Lead over Connolly in the 11th
Posted on September 7, 2008 by Riley
BVBL is reporting that Keith Fimian has taken the lead over Gerry “The Big Doofus” Connolly in the race to succeed U.S. Rep. Tom Davis. Fimian has been out working extremely hard and running TV commercials while Connolly has disappeared from the radar as Fairfax County’s finances collapse.
Exactly, Pete. No one can take anything for granted until the polls are closed and everyone has voted. 34 days to victory, but only if people get out and work to achieve it!!!
What this poll tells me is that we should be encouraged and motivated to work even harder. The finish line is sight. We all know Connolly’s record speaks for itself and discredits him. Go out today and convince one new swing voter to toss out the incumbent and give someone new a chance.
Rong Rich………Connollly’s record shows he works hard for PWC and all constituents………especially bringing stimulus funds to the district……….. Fimian is an armchair economist……….perfect example of engendering fear…….his closing statment in the debate with Connolly was like a ghost story ……how does he know what will happen…..? what does he promote besides fear!!……hmmmmmmm the FEAR candidate……….not bad
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Fairfax County finances collapse?????? There goes your nose Pete…..yyur gonna need a crane to hold it up as you keep making up such tales!!!
So I guess there are no data for the 8th District (Murray vs. Moran)?
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Murray race is one of our toughest but he’s running a very good campaign, working extremely hard getting the word out to voters. Moran is disliked in so many circles. Murray could win this one.
I would be a little skeptical about this poll, but it is extremely consistent with other results in the 2nd, 5th, and 9th
Ken, “Rong” and “Connollly”? Seriously?
Look, the record is the record. The guy voted for every spending bill in front of him until he got a pass from Nancy Pelosi on HR-4213. And then all of sudden he’s a got a “fiscal conservative” P.R. campaign rolling in 2 days with Robo-calls, emails and letters. Connolly is another typical politician protecting his own hide. Meaning, he’s a fraud protecting the political ruling class. His problem is that people are paying attention now.
Of course he protects his hide……or he goes……….that is the nature of all politicians……….not some new or sneaky idea. Bills are geeting highly complex and maybe some worthy of a ‘no’ vote……..so, big deal…..the big picture is that Connolly DOES something…..not make lofty proposals …….like Fimian is going to straighthen anything out……naiveity is sickening!! You actually believe his starting a company has anything to do with being a congressman????? Fimian’s character sound questionable to me…..how he started his copmany…..ask his partners what they thought of him….it isnt pretty!! “Political ruling class?…….youve been reading up on Lenin??
Not true all polls in the 9th show boucher ahead by 10%.
James
It’s been almost a month since the 9th has been polled, This poll shows a increase in support for Griffith by 6 points, that is within expectations for Griffith who was behind by 20, then 13, then 10. Also not unusual considering the Car scandal Boucher was involved in.
Ken, do you think being a politician qualifies anyone to govern? These people have no real life experiences. You are either koolaide drinking ideologue or completely out of touch. Wow. But let’s talk about facts. So what exactly has Connolly done that so impresses you?
should have added that if you believe “political ruling class” is about Lenin/Marxism/Socialism, you’re clearly not up to speed on the contemporary American political dialog. Look up Lewis Lapham and get back to me.
People do your research. This poll means nothing. Clearly News Corp. fired every fact checker with their acquisition of WSJ. It took me ten minutes to find this stuff out. ccAdvertising, who did the poll is known for only polling likely supporters and tailoring their results to help the client.
If you go to ccAdvertising’s website you clearly see that this poll is totally bogus.
According to ccAdervtising:
“each ccAdvertising campaign is tailored specifically with our clients’ overriding goals in mind to achieve the desired results from respondents. Unique branching technology allows for complicated call flows with responsive surveys that change depending on responses given: each respondent is thus led through a personalized and unique survey. Complete Customization Allows for Complete Control”
Obvious Push Poll…and ccAdvertising is advertising firm not a polling firm and has been connected to numerous push polls across the country. They target likely supporters not the electorate as a whole. If Boucher is still ahead of likely supporters of ccAdvertising client Morgan “carpetbagger” Griffith then Griffith has a lot to worry about.
Jacob, tailoring polls for clients is exactly what every pollster does. That relates to the questions asked and the data sought, not the outcomes. And as previously stated, these polls were not internal campaign polls, but ones that were apparently conducted for the business community.
No, i dont believe that ‘breing a politican’ qualifies someone to serve. I do think it is important to know and value the issues that neeed to be addressed, and it is better if the person is familiar with the legislative process and how to get things done. I dont want someone who places his first values on his philosophy….e.g., no new taxes………….vs. look at the issues and see how to deal with them. It sounds sometimes that conservative politicians are there t o satisfy what grover norquist wants….not what I want!! Connolly in my neighborhood, has found money for the health center and the 4th lane in front of mccoart………not preachedd to me about how valuable his home inspectoin business is to his ability to rep me in congress……..so he hired 200 people……….but how can he get us the hell out of afghanistan…………
Sorry, but i do think i am up to speed with my connotation!!!! I do not always believe in the latest fads….like, especially ‘political correctness, which is another way of snickering at Supreme Court decisions that one may not like!! You may think that obtuse, but that is how i look at things………………..
Can we post a picture of the Kevin Bacon character from Animal House screaming all is well and slap it on Ken Reynolds’ posts? Everyone is dumber for having read them. I award him no points and may God have mercy on his soul.
beware of those who work God and soul into their political assertions? Who do you think YOU are……Pat R, Jerry F………….or God Himself!!!???? It is said that political ads are written on a 3rd grade level…perhaps i am doing that!!! i am glad that you at least understand what i am saying………….
LL- the GOP could win the 8th? Yeah, right. Next you’ll be trying to say you’ll win the 3rd. As deluded as hard-line Dems can be I can’t recall any of them thinking in ’08, a good year for them, that they were going to take the 1st, 6th or 7th, which would be the equivalent of Repubs winning the 8th or 3rd.
Did someone seriously just say we could win the 8th? In what alternative reality?
All I wanted to know was if there were any (recent) polling data on the 8th.
[...] we brought you news of the new polls in the four competitive Virginia congressional districts. Those polls showed Glenn Nye, Tom [...]
I wasn’t referring to you iso.
Rich,
Agree with you about Ken Reynolds except for one thing. You days he is either a koolaid drinker OR out of touch. Based on his subsequent answers, you should consider the possibility (or probability, really) that he is actually both.
And note that, as folks on the left almost always do, he failed to answer your question about what Connolly has actually done that impresses him (address facts). But of course, he would have to address Connolly’s voting record to answer you, and that would fortify my previous point.
Rich, i answered your question……..the 4th lane on the parkway in front of mccoart and the health clinic…..i dont run a tab……but he is always on the lookout for our best interests……making pwc a renewed god-fearing place to raise children, shoot off our guns and bake the damn murderers……….keep taxes low and also services…….
out-of-touch, out-of-touch……….damn right i am out-of-touch with you guys…..i am not a dittohead!!!!
Any new poll data on the 11th Congressional district? It’d be interesting to see some revised numbers a few weeks out from the election to see how Keith Fimian fares against Gerry Connolly.
Thank you,
[...] And in the only recent poll available out of the 11th, Gerry Connolly sits at 37 percent. [...]
We’re not quite there, yet. This poll data is also a bit old – dated Sept. 29, 2010. I’ve been scrounging for newer poll data myself, but it doesn’t exist. You can find newer poll data for about every other Virginia voting district, except the 11th.
However, I’m with you – time to sweep up the 11th district. Gerry Connolly aka “The Bulldog” has been running around politics in this area far too long. Time to get a leash on him.