Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.
1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)
2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)
3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)
3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)
5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)
6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)
7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)
8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)
9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)
10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)
11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)
Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:
MOST ACCURATE:
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
POLL REVEALED TO BE FRAUDULENT AND REPUDIATED BY DAILYKOS:
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
----------------
(If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)
POLLS THAT WERE WORSE THAN A FRAUDULENT POLL:
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweak (10/22-23)
Hmm, so does this set up Miller/Colgan v. Fitzsimmonds for the 29th or Fitzsimmonds v. Black for the 13th, the line is so close to the losers house that its hard to tell.
Since this is a done deal with the Governor ready to sign it, I think it’s safe to say that Republicans won redistricting. The House plan adds about 4 GOP seats right away, maybe as many as 6 eventually. And in the Senate, Republicans were able to hold the Democrats to a plan that — at best — preserves their current numbers.
I still think these districts favor a couple GOP pick-ups in the Senate.
What’s the deal with Ralph Smith’s seat?
he’s drawn in with Newman. Could be an interesting primary, if he wants to go that way, looks like the district now contains a lot of voters who haven’t been represented by either of them.
“Old McDonnell” was really cowed and has let his farm be cut into ridiculous pieces.
I am glad I am not a member of the Republican Party anymore since all of the Republican politicians appear to be cowards.
Riley: That’s why I said “at best.” I think they shored up their incumbents representing Republican district, particularly Miller who has essentially a brand new district, enough to probably hang on to them.
The new NoVa district looks competitive and the district that runs from Lynchburg to Goochland should be a Republican pickup, although the part of the district that’s in the city of Lynchburg is heavily Democratic Ward 3- the African-American part of town.
Miller’s biggest worry should be that Tommy Norment will move a block and run against him in the 1st. The new 3rd is a 70% GOP district so any Republican should be able to hang on to that so, if the GOP thinks Norment can take Miller — and I know for a fact they’ve polled it — there’s little downside risk for Republicans.
Sen. Norment was pretty upset about the lines drawn for his district and being separated from Williamsburg. He said he was voting for the compromise plan only because he committed to do so if a majority of the Republican caucus was voting for it. Based on his comments he might move for solely personal reasons.
I think the compromise plan results in a 20-20 split give or take two seats for the next ten years.
I’m crunching the numbers on the new lines for the 36th Senate Dist. and going back the last couple cycles in odd number years GOPers carried every race in the PWC portion, which is now well over 50% of the entire district. I’m checking out the Fairfax and Stafford sections now, but they may have just served up Toddy Puller on a silver platter.
pprados: I think that’s a pretty good prediction. But that’s really just status quo…the Senate hasn’t been very far from evenly divided since about 1995. One side or the other up by about 2, 21-19, 22-18, I think the Republicans might have got to 23-17 at one point. Pretty good barometer of the political climate of the state, really. Much more so than the more easily gerrymandered House.
[...] Virtucon complains about the gerrymandering in a Governor McDonnell will sign new redistricting plan. The bad news for Loudoun county is that the new 31st Senate district still stretches from [...]