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  • Poll Accuracy Based Results

    Election 2009 actual results: Bob McDonnell 58.6 percent for a 17.4 percent margin of victory. Virtucon rankings are based upon total amount the two numbers deviate from the actual numbers.

    1. Survey USA (10/30-11/1) – 58% / 18% (deviation 1.2%)

    2. VCU (10/21-25) – 54% / 18% (deviation 5.2%)

    3. (TIE) PPP (10/31-11/1) – 56% / 14% (deviation 6%)

    3. (TIE) Roanoke College (10/21-27) – 53% / 17% (deviation 6%)

    5. Suffolk Univ. (10/26-28) – 54% / 14% (deviation 8%)

    6. Rasmussen (10/27) – 54% / 13% (deviation 9%)

    7. Washington Post (10/22-25) – 55% / 11% (deviation 10%)

    8. Times Dispatch / Mason Dixon (10/28-29) – 53% / 12% (deviation 11%)

    9. Daily Kos / Research 2000 (10/26-28) – 54% / 10% (deviation 12%)

    10. Virginia Pilot / CNU (10/8-13) – 45% / 14% (deviation 17%)

    11. Clarus (10/18-19) – 49% / 8% (deviation 19%)


    Next time you see a poll, judge it by its past performance. Here is how they rank in terms of accuracy based upon the 2008 presidential election:

    MOST ACCURATE:

    1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

    1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

    3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

    4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

    5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

    6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

    6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

    8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

    8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

    POLL REVEALED TO BE FRAUDULENT AND REPUDIATED BY DAILYKOS:

    10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

    ----------------

    (If you're below DailyKos, you don't deserve to be taken seriously for another four years. Better luck in 2012.)

    POLLS THAT WERE WORSE THAN A FRAUDULENT POLL:

    11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

    12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

    13. FOX (11/1-2)

    14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

    15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

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    17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

    18. Marist College (11/3)

    19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

    20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

    21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

    22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

    23. Newsweak (10/22-23)

Did Rick Perry back TARP?

Herman Cain’s surprise victory in the Florida GOP straw poll is leading many to move up into the top tier of Republican candidates for president. Whether he belongs there or not is not my call. I will say, however, that I hope more attention is brought to bear on his disturbing defense of TARP. That said, this post isn’t about Cain, who is at least open about his view of the bailout (Romney is similarly open about his mistaken view). This post is about Rick Perry.

A couple of weeks ago, there was whispering that Perry had come out in favor of TARP back in 2008; whispers Perry angrily denied. Jennifer Rubin has the details (WaPo):

I previously reported on a letter that Texas Gov. Rick Perry co-wrote with then-West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin. In the wake of the financial meltdown, Congress was debating the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). On Oct. 1, 2008, Perry and Manchin sent a letter, which as the Austin American-Statesman reported, stated, “We strongly urge Congress to leave partisanship at the door and pass an economic recovery package. . . . If Congress does not act soon, the situation will grow appreciably worse.” It didn’t explicitly mention TARP. But this was certainly the topic of the day.

Now, because TARP was not specifically mentioned, Perry is insisting it was not what he and Manchin meant. However, as Rubin noted, Manchin’s people are nowhere near as categorical on this – and the Fort-Worth Star Telegram of the time makes clear the prevailing assumption of the Perry-Manchin letter: “Perry joins with Democrat to push for bailout”.

In other words, it certainly looks like both (or all if one includes Cain) frontrunners succumbed to the Washington Panic of 2008 – even though none of them were anywhere near Washington at the time. That bodes ill for what any of them would do if they actually get to Washington.

Cross-posted to RWL

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5 Responses

  1. What do LBJ, GWB, RIck Perry and Ron Paul have in common? Texas, an oversized state with extreme, unstable weather and extreme, unstable people, with the highest violent crime rate. Both LBJ and GWB wrecked the economy seeking both guns and butter. And Clinton is one of their neighbors, too. We were told in 2000 we had to take GWB because southerners were more conservative. He wasn’t. They are just louder and unreliable bulls in the china shop.

  2. [...] Did Rick Perry back TARP? by Virginia Virtucon [...]

  3. Interesting that Perry comes under fire on the GOP side for his correct decisions, backing TARP and the vaccine program.

    • Steve, if you really think TARP was the right thing to do, you are far more ignorant of economics than I realized.

      Pity.

  4. D.J.: No, I’m glad we didn’t have a Depression. I guess you’re not. We can argue about the stimulus package and the auto company bailouts…we’d probably come out on different sides of that….to have not done TARP would have been a disaster. GWB would have gone down in history with his name next to Hoover’s.

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