What Happens When The Three Least Accurate Polls Combine Into One?
![quinnipiac_poll[1]](http://virginiavirtucon.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/quinnipiac_poll1.jpg?w=220&h=120&crop=1)
CBS. NY Times. Quinnipiac. Three of the least reliable polling organizations in America when you compare their predictions to actual outcomes. So, what do these three decide to do? Combine into one giant garbage poll!
So far they’ve released polls showing Democrat candidates ahead for the Senate in FL, OH and PA by rather large margins (contrary to numerous other polls) as well as Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in each of those states. Gee, that wouldn’t have anything to do with their voter sample splitting as follows:
FL: R-27 / D-36 / I-32
OH: R-27 / D-35 / I-32
PA: R-32 / D-38 / I-36
Really? They expect us to believe that there will be an even larger turnout of Republicans in Pennsylania than there will be in Florida or Ohio?
Let’s look at how these states performed in 2008 and 2010:
FL: 2008 R-34 / D-37 / I-29 | 2010 R-36 / D-36 / I-29
OH: 2008 R-31 / D-39 / I-30 | 2010 R-37 / D-36 / I-28
PA: 2008 R-37 / D-44 / I-18 | 2010 R-37 / D-40 / I-23
In other words, CBS/NYT/QPac undersamped Republicans in FL between 7-9%, in OH 4-10%, and in PA by 5%. Mind you, even looking at the low-end from 2008, Republicans did not comprise that low a percentage of the electorate, yet the Three Stooges of Polling think GOP turnout will be down in 2012? Keep dreaming…
Anyone want to bet on what the ridiculous numbers will be that they inevitably will release for Virginia?
