This is becoming comical. The just released Quinnipiac / NY Times / CBS poll on the presidential and U.S. Senate races in VA is out. Before we get to the results of those match-ups, let’s look at WHO they polled:
Republicans – 23% / Democrats – 30% / Independents – 40%
The last time Republicans only comprised 23% of the electorate in Virginia was probably sometime shortly after Reconstruction in the late 1800s.
Let’s revisit more recent history –
2006 – 39% Republican, 36% Democrats, and 26% Independents
2008 – 33% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 27% Independents
2009 – 37% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 30% Independents
That gives us an average of:
36.3% Republicans, 36.0% Democrats, and 27.6% Independents
At a minimum, even going by 2008 numbers, they’ve undersampled Republicans by 10%. While you could argue they undersampled Democrats as well while vastly oversampling “Independents,” Democrats are still in the 30s while QPac appears determined to push the GOP into the teens by the end of this polling season.
So, how does Mitt Romney and George Allen stand up against their opponents with the deck so stacked against them in this poll?
Obama 49%, Romney 45%
Kaine 48%, Allen 46%
Margin of error for each candidate? +/-3%.
That means that even by skewing this poll against Republicans more than any other poll released so far this year, both Romney and Allen still fall within the margin of error.
UPDATE: More things from this poll to digest –
- Among independent voters in Virginia: Governor has a +38 approval; President is -16
- Among female voters in Virginia: Governor has a +14 approval; President is only +6 (Which of course flies in the face of recent narratives)
- Further, among college-educated white women in Virginia: Governor has a +20 approval; President is -17, that’s a stunning 37 point gap
- Romney LEADS among independent voters 50-43; Allen LEADS among independent voters 49-41
- Among independent voters Romney’s favorability is +5; President’s favorability is -10
- The enthusiasm gap is real: 41% of Republicans MORE excited to vote; only 33% of Democrats
- On the economy: 43% of independent voters think national economy is getting worse; 16% better. BUT same voter pool, 31% think VA economy is getting better; 17% worse. Complete reverse in perspectives
- Independent voters give Romney a +20 margin over the President on who would do best with the economy
- Also, independent voters overwhelmingly think Romney’s policies would help them financially, while the President’s would hurt. 45% of indy’s say Obama policies would hurt, only 21% say help. 29% of indy’s say Romney policies would help, only 24% say hurt.