State-By-State Analysis Of Factors Leads PoliSci Profs To Predict Romney Victory
Finally, someone finally applies a scientific model to election forecasting instead of just going by what the latest flawed Quinnipiac poll tells them.
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
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[The] prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
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According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
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Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
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In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.
While that is all heartening, we still have to work over the next 75 or so days to make it happen.
7 Responses to “State-By-State Analysis Of Factors Leads PoliSci Profs To Predict Romney Victory”
This is good news, but the profs will be correct only if we get out and vote, and otherwise help Romney/Ryan win.
Right. The one I’m interested in is a model that an old prof of mine from AU uses, called the 13 Keys to the White House which forcasts the popular vote winner. That one has been on target since 1860 (since an effective 2 party system has been in existence). A year ago, it was saying that Obama would win. I’m curious to see what the forecast is now.
Of course it is easy to be on target since 1860 — Monday morning QBing.
The AU professor is named Alan Lichtman, and he’s definitely a partisan Democrat. Some of his “keys” are subject to interpretation, and some have been adjusted over time. We’ll see if there are any modifications just in time for the election.
isophorone,
Oh, he’s a partisan Democrat all-right. I know. I’ve had him for class (although to be fair he taught a class on American conservatism and was actually fairly objective in class and I do give him credit for that. He also has a MASSIVE ego complex, in my humble opinion). He ran for the US Senate in Maryland in 2006 — the year the Sarbannes retired — the seat that Cardin now holds and even got himself arrested outside of Maryland Public TV after he was not invited to the debate they were hosting — there’s a youtube video out there somewhere of it. That having been said, I agree that they keys are open for interpretation — definitely after the election as well, but I would enjoy hearing him offer his forecast about it. Again, the catch 22 is that it forecasts the popular vote winner and the Electoral College is the one that matters. But, can you only imagine another 2000 election result with Obama at the top of the ballot? There would be hell to pay….or worse.
You all know that most close elections are decided in the last two weeks with victory based on which candidate did not make last minute screw ups..but i will work the phone here in 22193 and 22191
btw, did anyone ever have Fred Graham at AU? He works in my agency and does very well………….
Interestingly, everytime I’m polled, I tell them that I’m enthusiastically voting for Obama.
I want those dems sitting on their couches with their bon bons on Tuesday this year.
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