A poll released Tuesday by Gravis Marketing of 2,238 likely voters in Virginia gives Mitt Romney a 49-44 lead over President Obama and George Allen a 48-43 margin over Tim Kaine.
I held back on announcing these poll results until I could get a look at the internals to see the party breakdown and am only now posting this because the party ID numbers are within the general range of the recent Virginia electorate:
2006 – 39% Republican, 36% Democrats, and 26% Independents
2008 – 33% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 27% Independents
2009 – 37% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 30% Independents
That gives us an average of:
36.3% Republicans, 36.0% Democrats, and 27.6% Independents
What was the partisan breakdown of this poll?
37% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 24% Independents
That isn’t easy to dismiss at all unlike your typical Quinnipiac, Marist, ABC/WashPost or PPP poll where the GOP sample size has consistenly been around 23%. Furthermore, this is simply a massive sample size with over 2,200 likely voters compared to most other polls that only survey 500-600. Many Democrats have had knee-jerk reactions to this company without looking at the party sample size simply because it shows Romney and Allen with comfortable leads as opposed to being locked in a neck-and-neck race. They automatically dismiss this as being a “Republican poll” when in fact this same company is showing Obama and Sherrod Brown ahead in their races in Ohio. (Come late October, Ohio will be the real battleground while Virginia will be in the lean GOP column and the Dems will begin pulling their resources out to concentrate elsewhere.)
A copy of the poll’s internals can be found here.