Latest WashPo VA Prez Poll Failure – Double Digit Undersampling Of GOP
![1_123125_123019_2207910_2221975_090702_pb_washposttn[1]](http://virginiavirtucon.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/1_123125_123019_2207910_2221975_090702_pb_washposttn1.gif?w=252&h=195&crop=1)
How can members of the WashPo even look themselves in the eye in the mirror when they use such skewed data?
Q: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a…
Democrat 32%
Republican 24%
Independent 35%
(VOL.) No Pref./Other 5%
Don’t know 4%
You know what is coming next with a sample like that.
Obama 52%
Romney 44%
This isn’t rocket science guys. Here are the numbers from the last three statewide Virginia elections:
2006 – 39% Republican, 36% Democrats, and 26% Independents
2008 – 33% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 27% Independents
2009 – 37% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 30% Independents
That gives us an average of:
36.3% Republicans, 36.0% Democrats, and 27.6% Independents
They vastly oversampled Independents (most likely doing so in order to find enough “Independents” to give Obama a 47%-45% lead among them), slightly undersampled Democrats and significantly undersampled Republicans by anywhere from 9-15% (on average by 12.3%.) Look at the worst year for the GOP — 2008 when Obama was elected — and even in that year VA GOPers represented 33% of the electorate, 9% more than what the WashPo pollsters are predicting will show up this November.
How bad is this sample they used? While their Likely Voter sample gives Obama a +8 lead, their Registered Voter sample only gives him a +7 lead.
6 Responses to “Latest WashPo VA Prez Poll Failure – Double Digit Undersampling Of GOP”
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We’re still gonna win!!! Think of all the gaffes Romney will let fly over the next 2 months…. he’ll make Biden more and more like the statesman he is already……….
Biden let one fly today. Seems he doesn’t understand what the Middle Class is. Even though Obama defined it for him back in 2008 all the way thru…..Biden STILL got it wrong….to the point that he actually contradicts his own boss.
As for the actual numbers…I hope Ken has his bags packed to go to merry ‘ol Greece, because the landslide is coming.
There you go again Monk…………….conservatives are the doomsayers………and of course dont know how to fix anything….cant even change lightbulbs………and leave all the heavy lifting to the Democrats – who do fix everything. Also, NATE DOGG….Biden does have a unique style………BUT some think he is the smartest of the 4 of them………..AND remember, he is nowhere as dumb as Romney and his laughing boy Ryan!!!
Biden is a f****** idiot. Period. Obama may yet win (God forbid) but I very much doubt a landslide in either direction.
[...] Republicans by double-digits. This time, it is the NY Times / CBS / Quinnipiac poll that, like yesterday’s WashPo poll, predicts a meager 24% GOP turnout in Virginia in [...]
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