How can members of the WashPo even look themselves in the eye in the mirror when they use such skewed data?
Q: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a…
(VOL.) No Pref./Other 5%
Don’t know 4%
You know what is coming next with a sample like that.
This isn’t rocket science guys. Here are the numbers from the last three statewide Virginia elections:
2006 – 39% Republican, 36% Democrats, and 26% Independents
2008 – 33% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 27% Independents
2009 – 37% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 30% Independents
That gives us an average of:
36.3% Republicans, 36.0% Democrats, and 27.6% Independents
They vastly oversampled Independents (most likely doing so in order to find enough “Independents” to give Obama a 47%-45% lead among them), slightly undersampled Democrats and significantly undersampled Republicans by anywhere from 9-15% (on average by 12.3%.) Look at the worst year for the GOP — 2008 when Obama was elected — and even in that year VA GOPers represented 33% of the electorate, 9% more than what the WashPo pollsters are predicting will show up this November.
How bad is this sample they used? While their Likely Voter sample gives Obama a +8 lead, their Registered Voter sample only gives him a +7 lead.