I was beginning to wonder how Romney’s clear gain in national polls since early October was not showing up in certain states. Ohio, for example, seemed impervious to any campaign events (Rasmussen has had the president barely on the right side of a statistical dead heat for months), even as nearly every other “swing” state seems to be moving in Romney’s direction.
Well, Susquehanna and Rasmussen are different pollsters, but the former may have an explanation with its jaw-dropped on Pennsylvania (Washington Examiner):
Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
It’s the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.
“The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it,” Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.
Susquehanna has the only poll with Romney in the lead. However, it is also the only polling firm (of which I’m aware) in the Keystone state that weighs its figures by party ID, and they’re not exactly shy about it either (ABC27):
Democrats have claimed that (Susquehanna President Jim) Lee’s results are skewed toward Republicans and they point out that other polls taken in Pennsylvania show the President with a much bigger lead. Lee talked about the sampling of those other polls.
“On average, 35 percent of their interviews were with registered Republicans,” he said. “That is absolutely ludicrous to suggest that only one in three, or 35 percent of the turnout in November, will be registered Republicans.”
According to Lee, Romney’s lead is due largely to “some major inroads” in the suburbs of Philadelphia – an area Bill Clinton snatched from the GOP in the 1990s. Given Romney’s profile, that makes sense – he is exactly the kind of candidate that can do well there.
So…it looks like Pennsylvania should definitely be added to the list of toss-up states.
Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal