This is funny. Today the Washington Post is releasing numbers that they say shows Tim Kaine with a clear lead in Virginia, running contrary to every other recent poll in the race. How on earth did the Washington Post find a 7 point lead for
Tom Kaine Tim Kaine?
- WaPo would have you believe that Republicans only make up 23% of Virginia’s electorate. In the Obama surge election of 2008, CNN’s exit polls put Republicans at 33%. 23% is even less than California’s exit polls which put Republican turnout a 30%.
- WaPo would have you believe that there is an enthusiasm gap of EIGHT POINTS in the Democrats’ favor. EIGHT POINTS. In 2008, Obama carried the state when Democrats out polled Republicans by only SIX POINTS. The Washington Post insists that not only are Democrats more enthusiastic than Republicans this year, they’re more enthusiastic then they were in 2008! Nevermind that a week ago their own blog, Right Turn, talked about a Republican SURGE in Virginia.
So what does this poll really tell us?
George Allen is winning.
If Tim Kaine’s lead can not out pace the R/D/I split in the poll, Tim Kaine is in trouble. In fact, he trails. Tim Kaine is only up by 7 in a poll that oversamples Democrats by 8.
That means, without having access to the full demographic breakdown, we can conclude that George Allen must be leading among the crucial independent voters.
The Washington Post is doing everything in its power to in-kind assist their endorsed candidate Tim Kaine and inflate his campaign’s efforts when they’re clearly struggling to find a coherent message in the closing days of the campaign. The media is trying to build the narrative of inevitability for Tim Kaine to knock the wind out of GOP grassroots efforts but we can not and will not let it happen.
This 8 point enthusiasm gap is pure bunk. We can count on Victory, RPV, Romney and George Allen for U.S. Senate’s ground game to hammer the message home over the last ten days that we can do better and are ready for Ameirca’s comeback!
These numbers should make Tim Kaine very afraid and Virginia very confident that their voices will be heard in Washington again.