A new Roanoke College poll gives Mitt Romney and George Allen each 5 point leads in their respective races for President and Senate. Romney is up 49-44 and Allen is up 47-42. The R/D/I split was 31/35/30 so even with +4 for the Democrats, Obama and Tim Kaine are struggling. Heck, if you believe Roanoke’s previous poll, this is a 15 point swing in Allen’s favor!
Gravis Polls found similar numbers for Romney and Allen in a poll released on Saturday. With an R/D/I split of 33/41/26, Romney and Obama were tied while George Allen led by 2, 48-46. +8 Democratic turnout would outpace the difference in 2008, something no one expects, so this race isn’t as close as Gravis would seem.
Which brings us to the NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac outlier. This poll has consistently shown numbers way outside of every other poll so when it shows Romney down by 2 and Allen trailing by four while the R/D/I split 27/35/35, well, if you’re a Democrat you better be worried.
Any turnout short of 2008′s numbers won’t give Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout. And when every poll shows Romney and Allen winning independent voters by a large margin, well, things are looking pretty good for turning Virginia red again!
9:54am UPDATE: Politico dug up this gem from the NYT/CBS/QUINN numbers:
Among independent voters in the most recent poll, Allen was ahead of Kaine, 56 to 38 percent, according to Quinnipiac. In contrast, the poll earlier this month showed independents supporting Kaine over Allen, 51 to 42 percent.
That is a TWENTY SEVEN POINT SHIFT among independent voters, from down 9 to up 18!
10:00am UPDATE: And all of this is hot on the tail of the Washington Post trying to purposefully mislead the public on the state of the Virginia U.S. Senate race:
The reason why Tim Kaine has an 8-point lead is because the Washington Post poll has an 8-point Democrat advantage by party affiliation. In their poll, 31% are Democrats, 23% Republicans and 36% Independents. This 8-point Democrat advantage on party affiliation is even larger than the historic turnout in 2008, which gave the Democrats a 6-point edge in Virginia according to the exit polls. The Republicans had a 4-point party affiliation advantage in 2004 and 2009. The average party affiliation has Republicans and Democrats tied in Virginia at 46%. Not only does the Washington Post poll have an 8-point Democrat advantage, it also only has Republicans at 23% of the electorate, which is 10 to 16 points lower than recent election turnouts.