On WMAL radio today, former U.S. Rep. Tom Davis spoke about how the GOP must reach out to new constituences and we have to start right away because “the 2014 election starts today.”
We’ve got a U.S. Senate seat up in 2014 as well as all 11 House seats from Virginia. Of those, the only potentially competitive ones are the Senate seat (whether or not Mark Warner decides to get out or not) as well as the 11th Cong Dist. that used to be represented by Davis and is now filled by Gerry Connolly.
Connolly just barely cracked 60% and garnered over 168,000 votes yesterday, but he had the Obama tailwind aiding him and had the fortune of running against a Republican who thought he could run an almost entirely grassroots campaign that didn’t require him to raise a lot of money. Four years before in the old 11th district before it was gerrymandered, Connolly only got 55%, but won over 196,000 votes that year. Keep this in mind, in 2012 Chris Perkins won 100,000 against Connolly in the new district while Connolly only won 111,000 in the old district in 2010. If Connolly were to see a similar drop of 85,000 votes / 43 percent decline from presidential year to mid-term next go round, he’d have lost anywhere from 4 in 10 to more than half of all his votes. Something tells me that the right GOP candidate could capture and expand upon the 100,000 votes Perkins did in two years. There have already been rumblings about former U.S. Rep. Artur Davis running for this seat. Might a new Davis be taking back the 11th Dist. for the GOP?