Virginia politics, policy and entertainment from the Greater Richmond-Washington Metro Area perspective.

Fmr. Cong. Tom Davis: “The 2014 Election Starts Today”

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On WMAL radio today, former U.S. Rep. Tom Davis spoke about how the GOP must reach out to new constituences and we have to start right away because “the 2014 election starts today.”

We’ve got a U.S. Senate seat up in 2014 as well as all 11 House seats from Virginia.  Of those, the only potentially competitive ones are the Senate seat (whether or not Mark Warner decides to get out or not) as well as the 11th Cong Dist. that used to be represented by Davis and is now filled by Gerry Connolly.

Connolly just barely cracked 60% and garnered over 168,000 votes yesterday, but he had the Obama tailwind aiding him and had the fortune of running against a Republican who thought he could run an almost entirely grassroots campaign that didn’t require him to raise a lot of money.  Four years before in the old 11th district before it was gerrymandered, Connolly only got 55%, but won over 196,000 votes that year.  Keep this in mind, in 2012 Chris Perkins won 100,000 against Connolly in the new district while Connolly only won 111,000 in the old district in 2010.  If Connolly were to see a similar drop of 85,000 votes / 43 percent decline  from presidential year to mid-term next go round, he’d have lost anywhere from 4 in 10 to more than half of all his votes.  Something tells me that the right GOP candidate could capture and expand upon the 100,000 votes Perkins did in two years.  There have already been rumblings about former U.S. Rep. Artur Davis running for this seat.  Might a new Davis be taking back the 11th Dist. for the GOP?

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6 Responses to “Fmr. Cong. Tom Davis: “The 2014 Election Starts Today””

  1. isophorone

    For all the disagreements I may have with Tom Davis, I do have to respect his political analytical skills. He is thinking strategically, and for races like Congress (to challenge Connolly) or Senate (to challenge Warner), people have to start NOW, not wait until a year from now.

    • Lovettsville Lady

      If Tom Davis was all that smart his wife wouldn’t be running for Attorney General. He would know that she doesn’t have a snowball’s chance of winning the nomination in a republican convention.

  2. Ken Reynolds

    Geez, dont you folks like any normal people????? Tom Davis, had he stayed in the House, would have made an excellent Speaker…..certainly better than Boehner or Cantor, and will provide strong opposition to Mark Warner if they decide to run against each other. There is talk that Mark wants to be Governor again – Senate is boring…………and unless Tom snares some high dollar K St job, will want to run for Senate. Getting back to the groups that the Republicans need to get into their party, the only group they seem to be working on are rich white folks……good luck guys…keep up the good work………..great set of values you folks have!!

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