Virginia politics, policy and entertainment from the Greater Richmond-Washington Metro Area perspective.

New Poll: Cuccinelli, McAuliffe Tied (Bolling Irrelevant)

quinnipiac_poll[1]

Now THIS is interesting:

McAuliffe gets 40 percent of registered voters to 39 percent for Cuccinelli in a head-to-head matchup, a result relatively unchanged from a November Quinnipiac survey that gave McAuliffe a narrow 4-point lead. A trial heat in the new poll including Bolling gives him 13 percent and McAuliffe and Cuccinelli 34 percent apiece.

. . .

Brown noted that in a three-way matchup, Bolling appears to be taking support away from both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli. In the two-way race, Cuccinelli and McAuliffe both lead among their own party’s voters by massive margins, and Cuccinelli has a slim lead with independents.

Three take-aways here.  First, Ken Cuccinelli has closed the gap with Terry McAuliffe among registered voters from 4-points to 1-point in the last two months.  Second, Bill Bolling running as an independent would essentially be irrelevant, pulling roughly equal numbers of voters from each side.  Finally, Cuccinelli holds a small edge among independents.

The dynamics are there for a Cuccinelli victory just as there were for Bob McDonnell’s win 4 years ago — he just needs to frame the race correctly early on as I wrote in November:

1.) Define McAuliffe the same way Dems defined Mitt Romney. McAuliffe is a super-rich guy who made his money via a very questionable deal with Global Crossing – a company that went belly-up shortly after McAuliffe cashed out. As even Not Larry Sabato put it on Facebook last night, McAuliffe has said he moved thousands of jobs out of Virginia to Mississippi because VA wouldn’t give him a big enough corporate tax break. Turnabout is fairplay, Terry, and payback is a bitch.

2.) Paint this choice for voters:

Ken Cuccinelli = Bob McDonnell’s VA. If you approve of the direction Virginia is going, then Cooch is your man as he’s cut from the same cloth as McDonnell.

Terry McAuliffe = High tax, crime-ridden Maryland.

Most Virginia voters, especially those in NOVA, will immediately get the contrast. One can assume that a majority of NOVA residents could have chosen to live in MD over VA, but did not for some reason, whether it be taxes, the availability of jobs or general quality of life. Basically, it could be a “Don’t Maryland Virginia” theme.

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9 Responses to “New Poll: Cuccinelli, McAuliffe Tied (Bolling Irrelevant)”

  1. minpin06

    I like the idea of painting McAuliffe as a part of the 1% rich guys. I also think the case can effectively be made that he also moved jobs out of VA because of the corporate tax rate, but yet he is from the party that wants to sock it to the rich, and in particular the job creators. Did Global Crossing get any type of government funding? Did they rape the company of cash, and then watch it go belly up? Global Crossing= Solyndra?

    As I’ve said before, I don’t think it is a great idea for Cooch to tie himself too closely to McDonnell. I feel even more strongly about that now seeing McDonnell’s transportation plan. Even though I understand that Cooch said something nice about the Gov. being innovative and bold with this plan, I can’t even imagine Cooch going along with it. Of course he is walking on egg shells as he needs the Gov to keep on endorsing him and working for him.

    I can’t even imagine Cooch going along with depending on the Congress in DC passing a bill that requires every on line seller to act as the tax collectors for every state in the nation to collect use taxes for every sale to everyone in all the states. Most small on line sellers would go under from the weight of the tax collection burdens. For example, I’m looking at a catalog right now from a small nursery who sells and ships plants. Obviously that would include every small on line seller located in VA collecting sales taxes for all of the other 56 (haha) states.

    With the fact that McDonnell wanted to set up a fund to convert all state vehicles over to alternative fuel vehicles, and he also had dreams of setting up a fund to help other state residents to also make the conversions, where in the heck is he coming from in charging anyone with an alternative fuel vehicle a fee/tax of $100. So he pushes for alternative fuels, and then turns around and smacks them with a fee?

    Cooch has also talked about the subsidies given to the electric utilities to work on green energy projects, even though there is no cost benefit yet found for wind or solar, and those subsidies are coming out of tax payer funds. But now McDonnell wants to set up funds for alternative fuel vehicles, but turns right around and zaps them with a fee. I can’t even wrap my arms around any rationality for that move, even though I am loath to see a major food crop now feeding vehicles instead of people and animals. The ethanol subsidies, unfortunately passed in the Bush admin. caused the biggest increase in food prices across the board, and it happened almost over night. Is that the alternative fuel the Gov. is talking about, increased ethanol usage which most engines can’t tolerate?

    The more I think about it, Cooch needs to distance himself from what I’m sure is going to really hurt the Republican base if this ever passes the state legislature, which is doubtful. McAuliffe has been given a gift with this packahe. He can easily point out that it is the Republicans that want to raise your taxes and fees.

    • minpin06

      I wanted to add that McAuliffe can now accuse the Republicans as being the ones to push for tax and fee increases. Right now we are enjoying seeing many of the Obama supporters waking up to see their paychecks shrinking because of the FICA tax adjustment back up by 2%. In addition, the Obama supporters are also seeing their health insurance rates increasing big time, while benefits have been cut. I really wonder if McDonnell isn’t forgetting that the Republican party really does need to keep VA in their column, and his transportation isn’t even pleasing to the Dems, from what I’m reading. Is he purposely trying to cause some major losses?

  2. Ken Reynolds

    Doesnt Cooch automatically lose for saying that all teachers need to be armed (after the Connecticut disaster)……..Its ok to be rich………If you guys are simply parroting dittoheading the Limbaugh and Hannity lines that poor and middle class people hate rich people, then yes McAullife is a bad, bad guy. BUT, we like rich and successful Democrats. We simply like to ask them to put more in the pot……….At the end of the day though, the suggestion of arming all teachers is an automatic lose for Cooch……………yay…………….Gainesville could use a dog catcher……..

  3. Ken Reynolds

    Jim – Taking this a step further, how about arming priests while they are saying Mass!!! Any wackos go to Mass with a gun……………bam….bam……………shoot to kill Father!!!

  4. Lovettsville Lady

    The difference is, people have a choice in churches. Kids have no choice in public schools. They have to go where the government tells them to go, whether safe or not. If congregations want to be armed, or want and armed priest, they are free to do so. People can then choose to join that church or go elsewhere. Kids aren’t free to choose schools. Liberals won’t allow choice in schools.

  5. Rtwng Extrmst

    BTW the part in the title above in parens we always knew, which is why Bolling had to drop out to begin with.

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