Comstock Closing In On 50% In New Poll

The Hill has released results of a new poll conducted April 4-5 ahead of the April 26 firehouse primary for the GOP nomination in the 10th Cong. Dist.

The Citizens United poll finds Del. Barbara Comstock with 44% followed by Del. Bob Marshall at 10%.  Stephen Hollingshead, Howie Lind, and Rob Wasinger are all tied at 3% with Marc Savitt bringing up the rear with just 1%.

At this rate, it looks like no one will be able to catch Comstock with her so close to 50% against a field of five other candidates. This could explain why the Howie Lind radio commercials attacking Comstock are growing more absurd by the day — Barbara Comstock is backed by the D.C. establishment that hates the Tea Party and supports amnesty — thereby trying to ascribe those positions to her. The ads even say she supports expansion of Medicaid / Obamacare in Virginia and that it is on her own website when in fact her own website details her fight against this expansion. She even voted against LAST YEAR’S budget over concerns about expansion.

If Team Lind continues to spread such lies about Comstock’s record, then they may find themselves having to confront the truths about their own candidate’s life.

10th Cong. Dist. Poll Current Results & Updated With New Entries

Please be sure to vote in our poll of potential candidates to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Frank Wolf. As of Wed. morning, Dec. 18, the top three contenders in this crowded field with 844 votes cast so far are:

Del. Barbara Comstock 398 votes / 47%
State Sen. Dick Black 124 votes / 15%
PWC Sup. Pete Candland 91 votes / 11%

No other candidate is above mid-single digits so far.

(Note that repeat voting is blocked by both cookie and by IP address.)

We also have updated the poll options with additional names that have been floated including fmr. U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, fmr. Del. Joe May, fmr. 10th Dist. Chairman (and current U.S. Senate candidate) Howie Lind, Loudoun Co. Chairman Scott York, businessman / ’08 & ’10 nominee Keith Fimian, and Tareq Salahi (the White House party crasher / ex-husband of Journey guitarist’s new wife.)

If you haven’t done so already, you may vote here:

And the most accurate pollster of 2013 is…

Each election cycle, Virtucon likes to go back and see which pollster was the most accurate with their final poll before the election.  Without further fanfare…

Final Result: McAuliffe +2.5%

1. Emerson College: McAuliffe +2% (off by 0.5%)

2. Wenzel Strategies: McAuliffe +1% (off by 1.5%)

3. (TIE)

Hampton University: McAuliffe +6% (off by 3.5%)

Quinnipiac University: McAuliffe +6% (off by 3.5%)

5. RealClearPolitics Average: McAuliffe +6.7% (off by 4.2%)

6. (TIE)

Christopher Newport University: McAuliffe +7% (off by 4.5%)

Public Policy Polling: McAuliffe +7% (off by 4.5%)

Rasmussen: McAuliffe +7% (off by 4.5%)

9. The Washington Post: McAuliffe +12% (off by 9.5%)

Source: RealClearPolitics and Wenzel Strategies (which was not included in the RCP average, but reported on Virtucon.)

Second New Poll Of The Day Shows Cuccinelli Closing Fast On McAuliffe

It just isn’t the Quinnipiac poll showing Ken Cuccinelli closing fast on Terry McAuliffe. A second new poll of the day, Rasmussen, confirms Cuccinelli’s momentum.

Last week, Rasmussen gave McAuliffe a 17% lead.  In this week’s poll, McAuliffe has lost 10% off that margin and now leads by just 7%.

Hang on folks, this is going to be a wild final week!

Fmr. U.S. Rep. Tom Davis On The Tightening Gov. Race

Fmr. U.S. Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) has released the following statement regarding the new Quinnipiac poll showing that Ken Cuccinelli has closed the gap with Terry McAuliffe to just 4% in the past week.

“Watch out folks, Cuccinelli is one of the best closers in Virginia and the President has upped the ante by coming in this weekend!  This has shaped up to be a big opportunity for folks to send Washington a message on ObamaCare.” – Tom Davis

Sound familiar?

New Q-pac Poll Shows McAuliffe’s Lead Dropping To +4%

Ken Cuccinelli has cut Terry McAuliffe’s lead in half this past week to just 4% according to the latest Quinnipiac poll. Last week, the Q-pac poll had McAuliffe leading the race 46-39%.  The brand new poll now has the race at 45-41%.  The margin of error of +/- 2.9% with a 4% lead makes this race a dead heat.

This poll had a much larger likely voter sample than the WashPo poll – 1,182 compared to the Post’s 762.  Without Libertarian Robert Sarvis in the race, McAuliffe’s lead drops to 2%, 47-45%.

Could this be a reflection of the lack of voter intensity for McAuliffe that we spotlighted yesterday?  Well, that seems to be what the Q-pac pollsters are indicating may be happening.

“State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is nipping at Terry McAuliffe’s heels as the race to be Virginia’s next governor enters the final week of the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “It goes without saying that turnout is the key to this race and the harshly negative tone of the campaign is the kind that often turns off voters.”

“With the race this close, the final decision by the roughly one in 10 voters who are supporting Libertarian Robert Sarvis has become even more critical. Nationally, third-party candidates often lose support in the end as voters enter the voting booth and back someone they consider the lesser of two evils. Only six in 10 Sarvis supporters say they definitely will vote for him. Almost nine in 10 McAuliffe and Cuccinelli backers are committed.

Ken is closing strong as he always does. What does McAuliffe do at the end? Well, let’s look at the closing days of his 2009 primary run:

Don’t be surprised if that 4% lead evaporates over the next week.  The McAuliffe collapse is under way…

WashPo Poll Raises The Question Of Voter Intensity

The new Washington Post poll that shows Terry McAuliffe leading Ken Cuccinelli by 12%, 51-39%, has some very interesting results in deeper poll questions that raise the question of voter intensity.

Q: (Among McAuliffe supporters) Is your vote more for McAuliffe, or more against Cuccinelli?

For McAuliffe 34% / Against Cuccinelli 64%

Q: (Among Cuccinelli supporters) Is your vote more for Cuccinelli, or more against McAuliffe?

For Cuccinelli 50% / Against McAuliffe 44%

So, half of Cuccinelli supporters are doing so because they are supporting him versus only one-third of McAuliffe supporters who are voting for their candidate.

First of all, this shows exactly how effective McAuliffe’s multi-million media blitz to demonize Cuccinelli has been.  There is no denying that.

Second, however, it exposes a potential Achilles’ heel for McAuliffe similar to the one that brought him down in the 2009 Democratic primary.

When you look at the Likely Voter sample of 762 in the Post poll, the 51-39% split translates to a 389-297 McAuliffe advantage.  When you take into account those who say they are actually voting FOR their candidate as opposed to against the other guy, the advantage switches to Cuccinelli 149-132 or 49-43% (assuming Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis maintains the 8% he has in the WashPo poll.)

Voters are more likely to show up at the polls on Election Day to vote FOR their candidate than they are to go and vote against someone, especially when the alternative isn’t much more palatable in their eyes.  Positive voter intensity remains the edge for Cuccinelli.  In a low turnout election like this one promises to be, that can make for some very surprising upsets.

Another Day, Another Poll Showing VA Gov. Race Is A Dead Heat

Hot on the heels of yesterday’s QPac poll showing Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe within the margin of error (McAuliffe +3), a new Roanoke College poll has been released showing the race is even tighter with McAuliffe holding just a single-point lead, 37% to 36%.  As the month of September has progressed, the spread between the two candidates has shrunk considerably.

Poll Date Sample McAuliffe (D) Cuccinelli (R) Spread
RCP Average 9/3 – 9/16 42.2 38.0 McAuliffe +4.2
Roanoke College* 9/9 – 9/15 874 LV 37 36 McAuliffe +1
Quinnipiac* 9/9 – 9/15 1005 LV 44 41 McAuliffe +3
Harper (R)* 9/15 – 9/16 779 LV 42 37 McAuliffe +5
Purple Strategies 9/6 – 9/10 800 LV 43 38 McAuliffe +5
Rasmussen Reports 9/3 – 9/4 998 LV 45 38 McAuliffe +7

In fact, if you only look at the polls completed in just the past week, the 4.2% average lead for McAuliffe drops to 3%.  This comes AFTER McAuliffe wasted $8 million advertising during the month of August to try and paint Cuccinelli as a wacko extremist.

The recent spate of stories in the Washington Post and elsewhere are reinforcing the public perception that Cuccinelli is a serious, trustworthy and competent policy wonk while McAuliffe has an almost total disregard for the details and is by and large just winging it.  In fact, the Post ran ANOTHER such story today:

The speeches [at the Richmond forum on education and the conomy] themselves fed into the narrative that emerged from the TechPAC flap: that McAuliffe is breezy while Cuccinelli grasps the details and gravity of the job. Both candidates had 45 minutes to address the group. Cuccinelli gave a 39- minute address heavy on wonky details. McAuliffe gave his standard 16-minute stump speech.

It seems that the more people (and even the media) pay attention, the more they realize that Cuccinelli has a firm grasp of the issues and would serve as a good steward of the Commonwealth while McAuliffe, by contrast, is a loose cannon on a rolling deck.

Good News for Cuccinelli from the QPac Poll

A Quinnipiac University poll out earlier this week showed Terry McAuliffe leading Ken Cuccinelli by 6 points among likely voters, 48-42.  Scratch a little deeper than that, though, and you find some pretty good news for Cuccinelli.

Cuccinelli LEADS among independent voters, 44-42.

Cuccinelli LEADS on honesty and trustworthiness, 42-39.

Cuccinelli LEADS on having the right experience to be governor, 56-46 (does not add up to 100% because this reflects those voters who say both candidates possess the right experience.)
Then, there is the partisan breakdown of the poll:

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 23%
Democrat 30
Independent 39
Other/DK/NA 8

However damaged the GOP-brand may be, there is no way that Republicans will comprise only 23% of the electorate on Election Day, particularly in an off-year election where President Obama is not on the ballot and he could not even get the LG nomination for a former member of his own administration in a low-turnout Democratic primary back in June.  With McAuliffe holding a 6-point lead in this poll and Democrats having a 7% advantage in representation here (with McAuliffe carrying Democrats 92-1), that amounts to a wash.

In the 2009 election, the partisan ID was 37R / 33D / 30I. Even in the 2012 election, the partisan ID was 32R / 39D / 29I, which was a slight IMPROVEMENT for the GOP over the 2008 election.

The only troubling indicator is the 6% of self-professed Republicans who say they will vote for McAuliffe over Cuccinelli.  To you I say, just be honest with yourselves and the rest of the voters here in Virginia.  You’re RINOs.  Go join your local Democratic committee.  If you need help, just contact Boyd Marcu$.

New Poll: Cuccinelli, McAuliffe Tied (Bolling Irrelevant)

Now THIS is interesting:

McAuliffe gets 40 percent of registered voters to 39 percent for Cuccinelli in a head-to-head matchup, a result relatively unchanged from a November Quinnipiac survey that gave McAuliffe a narrow 4-point lead. A trial heat in the new poll including Bolling gives him 13 percent and McAuliffe and Cuccinelli 34 percent apiece.

. . .

Brown noted that in a three-way matchup, Bolling appears to be taking support away from both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli. In the two-way race, Cuccinelli and McAuliffe both lead among their own party’s voters by massive margins, and Cuccinelli has a slim lead with independents.

Three take-aways here.  First, Ken Cuccinelli has closed the gap with Terry McAuliffe among registered voters from 4-points to 1-point in the last two months.  Second, Bill Bolling running as an independent would essentially be irrelevant, pulling roughly equal numbers of voters from each side.  Finally, Cuccinelli holds a small edge among independents.

The dynamics are there for a Cuccinelli victory just as there were for Bob McDonnell’s win 4 years ago — he just needs to frame the race correctly early on as I wrote in November:

1.) Define McAuliffe the same way Dems defined Mitt Romney. McAuliffe is a super-rich guy who made his money via a very questionable deal with Global Crossing – a company that went belly-up shortly after McAuliffe cashed out. As even Not Larry Sabato put it on Facebook last night, McAuliffe has said he moved thousands of jobs out of Virginia to Mississippi because VA wouldn’t give him a big enough corporate tax break. Turnabout is fairplay, Terry, and payback is a bitch.

2.) Paint this choice for voters:

Ken Cuccinelli = Bob McDonnell’s VA. If you approve of the direction Virginia is going, then Cooch is your man as he’s cut from the same cloth as McDonnell.

Terry McAuliffe = High tax, crime-ridden Maryland.

Most Virginia voters, especially those in NOVA, will immediately get the contrast. One can assume that a majority of NOVA residents could have chosen to live in MD over VA, but did not for some reason, whether it be taxes, the availability of jobs or general quality of life. Basically, it could be a “Don’t Maryland Virginia” theme.

New Virtucon Poll — Who Is Your *LAST* Choice For The GOP Lt. Gov. Nomination In 2013?

On the heels of yesterday’s new Virtucon poll on the GOP LG race which has registered over 1,200 votes from different individuals in less than 24 hours, we thought it would be instructive to also find out who potential convention attendees’ LAST choice for the nomination is. This won’t be a race settled on the first or even the second ballot, so people’s last choice is just as important as who their first choice is. Rather than pose the question of who your second choice is (which could be manipulated by someone voting for the same person for first AND second), it just makes sense to see who has the largest coalition AGAINST them going in to the convention.

Both of these polls will remain open until noon on Jan. 19, 2013.

Mitt-mentum Continues — NY Daily News Endorses Romney, Tied In PA, Romney +1 In MI And MN

The New York Daily News — NOT the NY Post — the DAILY NEWS has endorsed Mitt Romney for President.

Meanwhile, new polls show the race tied at 47% in Pennsylvania and Romney leading by 1% in Michigan and Minnesota.

Obama is set to disappoint the last people in America that he hasn’t already disappointed this Tuesday night.

Rasmussen: Romney ahead in Ohio

As Hurricane Sandy bears down on the northeast, Rasmussen provides the first poll on Ohio with Romney in the lead (albeit a statistically insignificant one). If the election goes as Rasmussen’s polls it today, Mitt Romney wins 279 electoral votes.

Of course, Election Day is still eight days away…

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

BREAKING: Obama Campaign Ceases Virginia Polling

BREAKING NEWS:  In the first indication that the Obama campaign is abandoning Virginia, Virtucon has received information that the Obama campaign has ceased polling in the Commonwealth.  (Such a move confirms the recent trend showing Romney taking the lead in Virginia over Obama.)  This information comes to us from a high level Republican source with whom we have had long experience and reliability.

New WashPo Poll Made Me Laugh Like Biden

Get a load of this malarkey (to quote our ever quotable soon-to-be former Vice President.) Here are the numbers from the latest ABC / WashPo poll that gives Obama a +3 advantage over Romney nationally, 49%-46%. Just for good measure, we include both their likely and registered voters figures as well as what the numbers were in their last survey.

Poll Date – D / R / I / Other (vol.) / No opinion
10/13/12 LV – 35 / 26 / 33 / 3 / 2
10/13/12 RV – 34 / 25 / 36 / 3 / 2
9/29/12 LV – 33 / 30 / 33 / 3 / 1
9/29/12 RV – 33 / 28 / 34 / 4 / 1

That’s right, they went from a D+3 LV model to a D+9 LV model in the course of two weeks. Is Dem intensity up since the first presidential debate? Not according to this poll which actually gives Romney the edge in voter enthusiasm 62% to 60% for Obama (four years ago McCain was at a pathetic 31%.)

Perhaps someone should suggest to “Weird Al” Yankovic to make a parody of the Maroon 5 song “Moves Like Jagger” and instead have it “Laughs Like Biden.”  It would be perfect accompaniment for reading the Post.

Romney, Allen Take The Lead In VA

Pollster John McLaughlin (not to be confused with the pundit) conducted a statewide poll of Virginia for George Allen’s senate campaign this Mon. and Tue., surveying 600 likely voters.  Unlike media and university polls, McLaughlin works for clients and no candidate wants to hire someone who isn’t accurate.  John is an ace pollster who I worked closely with for Steve Forbes in 1996, so I know that if he is going public with these numbers he is extremely confident in their accuracy as his entire reputation depends upon it. With that preface, drumroll please…

Romney 51% – Obama 44% – Goode 1%

Allen 49% – Kaine 46%

Complete crosstabs can be found here.

Hey, WashPo – What’s The Margin Of Error For A Poll That Only Samples 20 Registered Voters Statewide?

The WashPo’s poll last week showing that Obama is outpacing Romney in swing states 52-41 apparently has some problems.

“Out of 929 registered voters in the new poll, 161 live in one of these eight states, with a margin of sampling error of eight points.”

In other words, on average, they only polled 20 people per swing state.  What do you think the margin of error is on that?

That sound you hear is the already yawning credibility gap growing between the WashPo and the National Enquirer.

Obama Falters In VA

Silly WashPo.  As much as you wish that President Obama has put Virginia away, it just isn’t so and even the president’s campaign knows that.  He was in state today as well as last Friday and Joe Biden was here within the past week, too.  You don’t spend time and money in a state you’ve already secured.  (If you truly believe that he already has Virginia locked up, then you also probably thought Roger Simon’s POLITICO satire piece about Paul Ryan going rogue was real like some of your idiot colleagues in the press did.)

Here’s the latest evidence of that.  The latest poll conducted in Virginia by Suffolk Univ. (which, by the way, has a better track record in VA than the Post based upon the 2009 election results) and just released tonight has Obama well below 50%, leading Romney within the margin of error 46%-44%.  This poll was conducted Sept. 24-26 with a 4% margin of error.

Sorry guys, but there’s still a very competitive race in Virginia for the presidency.

Timmy! Learns “Tax The Poor” Isn’t Necessarily A Winning Campaign Issue

“Tax The Poor” Tim Kaine just learned a very hard lesson. Apparently, that idea isn’t much of a winning issue politically. How else to explain his apparent 7 point drop in a single week? Kaine now finds himself tied with George Allen at 44% according to the latest Suffolk Univ. / NBC 12 poll just released.  Why, just last week the mighty WashPo and NYTimes both had him at 51% before his utterly stupid remark about being open to a minimum tax on EVERYONE.  (For the record, in the 2009 gubernatorial contest, Suffolk was ranked higher than the WashPo in terms of accuracy of final prediction.)

Latest WashPo VA Prez Poll Failure – Double Digit Undersampling Of GOP

How can members of the WashPo even look themselves in the eye in the mirror when they use such skewed data?

Q: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a…
Democrat 32%
Republican 24%
Independent 35%
(VOL.) No Pref./Other 5%
Don’t know 4%

You know what is coming next with a sample like that.

Obama 52%
Romney 44%

This isn’t rocket science guys.  Here are the numbers from the last three statewide Virginia elections:

2006 – 39% Republican, 36% Democrats, and 26% Independents
2008 – 33% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 27% Independents
2009 – 37% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 30% Independents

That gives us an average of:

36.3% Republicans, 36.0% Democrats, and 27.6% Independents

They vastly oversampled Independents (most likely doing so in order to find enough “Independents” to give Obama a 47%-45% lead among them), slightly undersampled Democrats and significantly undersampled Republicans by anywhere from 9-15% (on average by 12.3%.)  Look at the worst year for the GOP — 2008 when Obama was elected — and even in that year VA GOPers represented 33% of the electorate, 9% more than what the WashPo pollsters are predicting will show up this November.

How bad is this sample they used?  While their Likely Voter sample gives Obama a +8 lead, their Registered Voter sample only gives him a +7 lead.

New Massive Likely Voter Poll Gives Romney, Allen +5 Leads In Virginia

A poll released Tuesday by Gravis Marketing of 2,238 likely voters in Virginia gives Mitt Romney a 49-44 lead over President Obama and George Allen a 48-43 margin over Tim Kaine.

I held back on announcing these poll results until I could get a look at the internals to see the party breakdown and am only now posting this because the party ID numbers are within the general range of the recent Virginia electorate:

2006 – 39% Republican, 36% Democrats, and 26% Independents
2008 – 33% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 27% Independents
2009 – 37% Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 30% Independents

That gives us an average of:

36.3% Republicans, 36.0% Democrats, and 27.6% Independents

What was the partisan breakdown of this poll?

37% Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 24% Independents

That isn’t easy to dismiss at all unlike your typical Quinnipiac, Marist, ABC/WashPost or PPP poll where the GOP sample size has consistenly been around 23%.  Furthermore, this is simply a massive sample size with over 2,200 likely voters compared to  most other polls that only survey 500-600.  Many Democrats have had knee-jerk reactions to this company without looking at the party sample size simply because it shows Romney and Allen with comfortable leads as opposed to being locked in a neck-and-neck race.  They automatically dismiss this as being a “Republican poll” when in fact this same company is showing Obama and Sherrod Brown ahead in their races in Ohio.  (Come late October, Ohio will be the real battleground while Virginia will be in the lean GOP column and the Dems will begin pulling their resources out to concentrate elsewhere.)

A copy of the poll’s internals can be found here.