Recipe Brewing For A Ron Paul Victory In Virginia

We’ve got a situation brewing here in Virginia similar to 2006 when George Allen supporters put the marriage amendment on the ballot to “turbo boost” him into the 2008 presidential race and instead all the socially conservative African Americans showed up to vote for the amendment and then pulled the lever for Jim Webb since he was the Democrat on the ballot.  This time, however, LG Bill Bolling and the rest of Mitt Romney’s team in Virginia thought that by eliminating the competition that they could then carry the Commonwealth for Romney in the primary with little effort so his campaign could focus on other states..  Instead, in a 1-on-1 showdown, with no party registration in Virginia and little to no enthusiasm for Romney among three-quarters or so of the GOP grassroots, we’ve got a recipe brewing for a Ron Paul victory in Virginia.

Romney has trouble getting above 25% nationally (NH being an exception — look for Michigan and Utah as well to be among only a handful of states where Romney exceeds this ceiling.)  After the SC and FL primaries towards the end of this month, the candidates then have the month of Feb. off before Super Tuesday rolls around.  Enthusiasm for Romney is not likely to pick up very much among the 75% who want someone else between now and March 6 — at least not to the point where people will go out of their way to go vote in the VA primary if they think it is over and Romney has it sewn up.  The only committed people out there are Paul people who will show up even if Paul is toast at that point. Couple that with no Democrat primary and don’t be surprised to see Ron Paul stun Romney in Virginia and hand an embarrassing defeat to Bolling.

On the upside, if Paul does upset Romney in Virginia and Romney still becomes the nominee (and at this point I’m hoping we get a brokered convention that plucks out some other candidate altogether), it may improve Bob McDonnell’s chances of getting the nod to be the VP nominee…


16 thoughts on “Recipe Brewing For A Ron Paul Victory In Virginia

  1. Interesting analysis……..there never are any stampedes for Romney………but get the college age kids out……….and watch out Mitt!! Ron Paul is a modern-day Gene McCarthy!!!!

  2. Riley,

    Who would you like in a brokered convention if it happens, and would you really want McDonnell to hitch his wagon to Romney, or are you saying McDonnell as VP to some other “brokered” candidate?

    1. I was saying here that if Mitt gets the nominate, but loses VA to Paul in the primary that Romney would have to do something to make sure he pulls in VA in the general election and that would benefit McDonnell. (I think McDonnell would be a good running mate for any candidate, though.)

      As for who we could nominate at a brokered convention — Jindal, Ryan, Barbour, Daniels. Take your pick. I still wish that a.) Mike Pence had run for president instead of IN Gov. or b) that Jeb’s last name was something other than Bush.

  3. A brokered convention, i believe, would inevitably go to Romney…..McDonell would be an asset to any ticket!!!!

  4. I will be either voting a blank ballot or Paul. I will only vote Paul if I believe he has no chance to win the nomination altogether and if one of the conservative candidates still has a chance. In that case I would want to deny Romney the delegates.

  5. My pastor announced today that he was going with Paul, said that he recently discovered that the first book Dr. Paul wrote was dedicated t arguing against abortion . He said that given Mitt’s inconsistencies on life he couldn’t in good conscience support him against Paul.

  6. A brokered convention would be fun, but I don’t see it happening this year. Even if Romney can’t boost his percentage much….and his momentum from continuing wins will help him do that….he’ll still rack up enough delegates once we get to the winner-take-all states that he’ll be a lock on the first ballot.

  7. Er, Gallup has Romney at 37% now.
    That ceiling is shifting upward.
    Moreover, McDonnell and Romney are too alike for average voters.
    Cuccinelli would be a better number two.

    1. Romney is too cautious and would never choose a.) a state AG as his running mate and b.) someone who was unapologetically conservative to the degree that Cooch is.

    2. I agree with Riley. That would be a bold move. Romney doesn’t make bold moves. I also agree that McDonnell is very similar in being a kind of smooth poll with perfect hair. I think Romney wll go with a really safe, non-controversial choice…Daniels or Pawlenty.

  8. I wonder why so much credence is placed in a V.P. as somehow balancing policy, since the President will assign what he wants the V.P. to do – the V.P. serves as an Assistant if he is lucky, and/or can be totally barred from the White House grounds!!! The last two have been valuable for their knowledge of general govt matters…

  9. Ken- I don’t know. I think the era where you just picked any goof to be the vice presidential candidate is over. Whatever one thinks of Biden or Cheney, as a person or ideologically, I don’t think there’s much question both were qualified to be president. The same with Gore, Mondale and Bush Sr. (Hell, if you just went by resumes, the first George Bush should have been the greatest president we ever had). Presidential candidates seem to put more thought into the choice these days, as they should because it’s the first really presidential decision they make. You’d have to say that Bush Sr. didn’t put enough thought into his own choice for v.p. and McCain blew his.

  10. But my point Steve, is notwithstanding the needed high caliber of person for the job as VP, there is a perpetual clamor for an ideological balance, rather than seeking the best qualified person.

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