2012 Election Predictions

Now is the time to put it on the line and make your predictions.  Here’s mine for the presidential:

We’ll know by around 10 p.m. tomorrow night if this scenario will play out once we have a good idea on how the Virginia (polls close at 7 p.m.) and Ohio (polls close at 7:30 p.m.) returns are going.  I’d pay close attention to what Michael Barone, the author of the Almanac of American Politics, has to say about swing counties and precincts in both states for your first clues.  (Barone should be part of the FOX News Channel team.)  I think Virginia will be called by 9:30 for both Mitt Romney and George Allen (I’d look for Romney to have a slightly larger margin than Allen, a reversal from earlier this fall as Romney has picked up support from Kaine supporters in Northern VA.)  The Virginia house delegation will remain unchanged.  Ohio will be closer than Virginia, but Romney will pull out a victory there without a messy recount.  When the first “blue” state falls to Romney — whether it be Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania — it will be the start of a very long night for Democrats nationally.

UPDATE:  The Washington Post has apparently realized that their current polling methodology is flawed and is trying out a new one.

According to The Washington Post Chia Pets, Mitt Romney is in the lead. Who do you think will win the election? http://wapo.st/U4wdjn

11 thoughts on “2012 Election Predictions

    1. Riley…I made my call on October 12. But given where things are now, I think yours is probably better. Nevada isn’t looking good, and if we ever had a shot at MI, now is the time (with a native son on the ballot).

  1. Seems a bit optimistic there. Michigan? Pa.? Wisc.? Think you’re right about VA and FL, but Ohio still the kingmaker. Unless you’re right about Mich.-Pa.-Wisc. If Romney picks those off, then you’ve nailed it.

    1. With polls yesterday showing Romney even in PA and +1 in MI and MN, I’m thinking this could be a wider blowout like what I’ve predicted. Latest CNN national poll has the two men even, but a +11 Dem turnout advantage (it was +7 in ’08) and Romney leading among indies by +22.

  2. Fingers crossed! As far as I’m concerned, it doesn’t have to be a blowout, but a clean win. I am hoping that both PA and VA go for Romney (more optomistic about VA than I am PA, but you never know).

  3. It seems odd to me that every pollster has independents going big for Romney and yet have the race tied. It makes no sense. Over sampling democrats makes no sense either since they also say that republicans are more energized and more likely to vote.

    1. The Democrats are ‘over-sampled’ because they have gone to the Patrick Moran School of Politics. Vote in the morning with your I.D. and then come back in the afternoon with your neighbor’s utility bill.

  4. My humble prediction is that Obama-Biden will carry Fla, Pa., Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and Iowa and will have over 300 Electoral votes. They will also carry the nation by 800,000 votes..

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